MIAMI — Tropical Depression Twelve formed west of Africa on Tuesday afternoon, and has some potential to reach tropical storm status Tuesday night or Wednesday. But forecasters expect it to be “short-lived” and sputter out in the open ocean.
However, another system is moving toward the Caribbean Sea, and it has a high chance of formation.
The depression was about 440 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving briskly northwest at 12 mph. It’s expected to keep this track through Thursday, dissipating that night, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday advisory.
It has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts, and it could reach a peak of 40 mph winds on Wednesday.
“The system has some potential to strengthen slightly and reach tropical storm strength tonight or on Wednesday, but for the most part the cyclone is expected to be short-lived,” forecasters said.
Forecasters say the other system, which is a disturbance a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, could also turn into a tropical depression in the next several days if it stays “far enough away from land” while quickly moving west across the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea, where conditions are ripe for development.
As of a 4:50 p.m. advisory, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed the disturbance was still ill-defined.
“Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said.
The system has seen its development chances jump over the past couple of hours. The hurricane center at 2 p.m. upped its formation chances from 40% to 70% through the next five days and is now giving it a 40% chance of formation for the next 48 hours.
At the moment, it’s not a threat to Florida.
Forecasters say the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela and Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao should monitor the system’s progress. And that regardless of development, the system is expected to douse portions of the Windward Islands with heavy rain, localized flooding and gusty winds Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Julia is the next name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
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