Tropical Depression Three has formed in the Atlantic with a forecast track that sees it growing to hurricane strength as it barrels into the Caribbean this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In the systems initial 11 a.m. advisory today, the NHC said the depression was located 1,425 miles east of the southern Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 35 mph and moving west at 21 mph.
The forecast track has the system growing into Tropical Storm Bret by late Monday and then into a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the depression’s path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear,” NHC forecasters said.
This would see the center of the storm potentially move over Caribbean islands like Dominica, Martinique or Guadeloupe with sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts up to 100 mph by Friday.
The long-term forecast could see the system turn toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
“There is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the cyclone,” the forecast said. “A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more westward into the Caribbean.”
The NHC also began tracking a second tropical wave on Sunday following this system’s track.
Also producing showers and thunderstorms, it’s located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde islands.
“Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the outlook stated.
The NHC gives the system a 30% chance of forming in the next two days, and 40% in the next seven days.
If both systems were to become named storms, it could become Tropical Storm Cindy.
The NHC determined the year’s first storm was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, which was followed by Tropical Storm Arlene that formed earlier this month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
The official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
_____
