The National Hurricane Center has given a system headed to the Caribbean a 100% of forming into tropical depression or storm with advisories expected later today.
In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said satellite imagery shows the area of low pressure halfway between Africa and the Lesser Anilles has become more organized since Sunday.
“If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression later today,” the NHC stated. “This system is forecast to move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph with further development across the central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of this week.”
The NHC’s forecast bubble for the likely path of the system puts it just off the Leeward Islands this week that could see it carve its way into the Caribbean.
If it develops it would become Tropical Depression Three and if it spins up to sustained winds of at least 39 mph it would become Tropical Storm Bret.
The NHC also began tracking a second tropical wave on Sunday following this system’s track.
Also producing showers and thunderstorms, it’s located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde islands.
“Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the outlook stated.
The NHC gives the system a 30% chance of forming in the next two days, and 40% in the next seven days.
If both systems were to become named storms, it could become Tropical Storm Cindy.
The NHC determined the year’s first storm was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, which was followed by Tropical Storm Arlene that formed earlier this month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
The official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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