The frequency of tropical cyclones in Queensland is likely to decrease but the weather events that do arrive could be more severe, according to two new government reports.
The Geosciences Australia report into wind hazards considered the risk and impact of thunderstorms, cyclones and tropical cyclones (TC) in the state's south-east.
A second report conducted by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) evaluated future cyclone risk and found climate change would influence the frequency, intensity and behaviour of tropical cyclones.
One report found it is "more likely than not that the frequency of TC activity in the Queensland region will decline into the future, though the change of frequency in TCs in south-east Queensland specifically remains uncertain".
But it also noted tropical cyclones "will continue to be the main cause of total wind risk in south-east Queensland".
The second report said most researchers agree there will be a "global decline in TC frequency, but a shift towards more intense events".
"There are multiple lines of evidence suggesting long-term trends in TC frequency and intensity are already observable," it said.
The technical report considers modelling for category 3 and 5 cyclones for areas as far south as the Gold Coast, where canal estates could exacerbate "severe wind speeds locally leading to higher risk".
The report noted that when a cyclone hit the Gold Coast in 1954, the city's population was 36,000. By 2041, it's expected to be more than 1 million people.
In the category 5 cyclone model, the report found all pre-1980s houses on the Gold Coast would be left in an "either extensive or complete damage state".
The modelling used was similar to initial forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Oma in 2019.
It featured winds exceeding 260 kilometres per hour and increasing to more than 300kph in the Hinterland.
"This scenario results in widespread moderate to complete damage across the Gold Coast region," the report said.
It found more than 135,000 houses would be destroyed or extensively damaged if this was to occur.
It said while the probability of a category 5 event on the Gold Coast is low, it could be "comparable to the impact of Hurricane Andrew on Miami, Florida [in 1992]".
Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said the city's new $24 million disaster management centre is expected to come online within months.
"This scale of impact would be the outcome regardless of the exact details of the track of the cyclone, as the housing on the Gold Coast is not constructed to the same standards as the cyclonic regions further north in Queensland," Mr Tate said.
"The safety of people and property is the number one priority for not only this council but all three tiers of government.
"We are determined to remain ahead of the curve when it comes to planning for future natural disasters.
"That's why our new disaster management centre, built to withstand category 5 storms, will be operational in the next two months."
