A cyclone is likely to form off the northern coast of Western Australia this weekend, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has warned, as south-east Australia prepares for unseasonably warm weather.
The bureau on Saturday morning issued a warning that a tropical low in the Timor Sea north-west of Darwin was moving south-west and was expected to intensify into a cyclone later in the day.
The weather system, currently identified as “tropical low 29U”, is forecast to track near the north of the Kimberley coast on Sunday, bringing with it damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said the system would likely become a cyclone on Saturday and strengthen on Sunday and early next week, fuelled by the warm waters off the coast of WA.
He said it could possibly intensify into a category three severe tropical cyclone by Tuesday.
But at this stage, Domensino said it was not expected to make landfall.
“The impending tropical cyclone is not likely to cross the coast and should stay to the north of WA between now and at least the middle of next week,” he said.
“However, it could still get close enough to the Kimberley coast to cause damaging winds, heavy rain and abnormally high tides this weekend and early next week.”
The WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) has issued an advice warning for people living in a 450km stretch along the coast from Cockatoo Island to King George River to prepare for dangerous weather.
“Although there is no immediate danger you need to start preparing for dangerous weather and keep up to date,” the warning read.
DFES urged people to secure boats, caravans, sheds and outdoor furniture, and to ensure emergency kits are stocked. Recommended items include enough “canned food and water to last five to seven days”, a first aid kit, medications, cash and a battery-operated radio with spare batteries to listen to warnings.
Domensino said cyclones were difficult to predict when they were still tropical lows and in the early stages of tropical cyclone development.
He said forecasts may change in the coming days as the system develops further and more accurate data becomes available.
Should a cyclone form, it will be named Errol and it will be the eighth of the season in the Australian region – the highest number recorded in a single season in 19 years.
Earlier this month, ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne moved across the Northern Territory and into south-west and central Queensland, dumping a phenomenal amount of water on to outback towns.
In March, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred wrecked havoc on south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.
Meanwhile, in the south-east of Australia, a hot weekend is forecast, with temperatures up to 12C above average expected in parts of Victoria and Melbourne to experience its warmest April days in four years.
The bureau has forecast Melbourne will reach a maximum of 30C on Saturday and Sunday, while Sydney is forecast to reach a high of 26C on both days of the weekend.
The unusually warm weather is due to a very large and slow-moving high-pressure system moving over south-eastern Australia and extending well into the Tasman Sea.
