It is “possible” that over 1,000 people will be on hospital trolleys without beds over the next number of weeks, the HSE boss has conceded.
It comes amid stark warnings that the flu season may not end until April or May and that there will be a “significant and sustained” increase next three to four weeks. Trolley numbers reached record highs this week, with 931 people waiting on a bed on Tuesday. By Thursday, the number had dropped to 639.
Speaking at a briefing at HSE headquarters on Thursday afternoon, CEO Stephen Mulvaney said that things will get worse before they get better. He told The Mirror that he could not rule out over 1,000 people being on hospital trolleys.
Read more: CMO urges parents to keep children with flu-like symptoms home from school
“I wouldn't want to be the harbinger of doom but at this stage we can’t tell until we see the peak of the flu,” Mr Mulvaney said. "It is possible that we will see higher numbers of people on trolleys. What we are trying to do is avoid that happening or to manage it as safely as we can if it does happen.
“Sitting here today, I can’t tell you that it won’t get to that because so far the actual numbers are aligned to our worst and most pessimistic models.
“It's a possibility, I'm not saying it's a probability but I am saying it's a possibility."
There have been reports of people waiting over 50 hours on trolleys to be admitted to a hospital bed.
The HSE’s Joe Ryan, national director of operation performance, said that the average wait time in the emergency department has been 8.3 hours. The average wait time for patients who were admitted to hospital beds was 13.8 hours.
Of over 27,000 people who presented to emergency departments last week, 1,887 people were on trolleys for more than 24 hours. The HSE was warned that the number of people admitted to hospital with the flu will continue to increase for the next three to four weeks. They also warned that the flu season may not peak until April or May.
Dr John Cuddihy, HSE Director of Public Health, said that the flu season started in November. However, he said it is difficult to predict when it will peak. "On average the influenza seasons in the past have lasted an average of 11 weeks, ut there's a wide range, sometimes over 20 weeks, which will take the season into April or May.
“The peak is usually in the midpoint of the season.” He continued: “It's likely that we will see significant and sustained increase week on week in cases notified of influenza and, as a consequence, then hospitalisations over at least the next three to four weeks."
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