Make no mistake, the Blackhawks would be better off with Trevor Zegras than Kirby Dach.
Zegras, the Ducks’ ninth overall pick in the 2019 NHL draft, has taken the hockey world by storm.
His 42 points in 52 games entering Tuesday ranked third among rookies, and the way he has earned those 42 points is even more impressive than the number. He’s neck-and-neck with Red Wings breakouts Mo Seider and Lucas Raymond atop the Calder Trophy race. Ducks coach Dallas Eakins on Tuesday compared Zegras to Patrick Kane, and it’s easy to see the likeness in their body types, playing styles and natural showmanship.
“He has certainly put a lot of eyes on our organization,” Eakins said. “The thing about ‘Z’ is he’s so full of confidence. He believes he can absolutely do anything. It’s a thing that I personally love about him. He obviously can score goals or set up goals by himself, very similar to the young man Kane that you have here. They’re dangerous in their own ways.”
But from a Hawks perspective, the only thing Zegras’ instant success has actually done is create an unfair, unrealistic standard by which to evaluate Dach.
Much of the fan base has seemingly already soured on Dach, deluded by outrageously high expectations and the anomalies like Zegras that meet them. In reality, Dach is roughly what a third overall pick should be at this age.
His 54 career NHL points (in 136 career games) entering Tuesday are actually tied for third-most in the 2019 class, trailing only Jack Hughes and Zegras and equaling Kaapo Kakko in 15 fewer appearances.
Dach is a far better defensive than offensive center, too, so points aren’t the best way to judge him. His 1.2 defensive point shares this season (per Hockey Reference) not only lead all Hawks forwards but also all forwards in the 2019 class.
He might never grow into the all-around, Jonathan Toews-like superstar ex-general manager Stan Bowman originally promised, but he’s already a decent NHL player en route to becoming a very good one.
But did Bowman err in drafting him? The 2019 draft was fascinating because the top two picks — Hughes to the Devils and Kakko to the Rangers — were obvious for months in advance, but the next eight — starting with the Hawks’ No. 3 selection — were extremely hard to forecast.
Up until draft day, defenseman Bowen Byram and forward Alex Turcotte, not Zegras, appeared to be the frontrunners to go third. Indeed, they ultimately went right after the Hawks, going fourth to the Avalanche and fifth to the Kings, respectively.
And out of that trio, Dach currently looks like arguably the best choice.
Byram’s promising career has been jeopardized by an unfortunate series of head injuries, which cast his present and future in hockey in doubt. He has played just 37 total games for the Avalanche, just 18 this year.
Turcotte, meanwhile, has appeared in only eight games for the Kings, recording zero points. Although he has been fairly effective in the AHL, there’s growing angst about his development rate.
Dylan Cozens, Vasili Podkolzin and Philip Broberg were all in the mix for No. 3 overall, too, and none of them have significantly outperformed Dach so far, either.
Cozens (42 points in 96 career games) and Podkolzin (16 in 54) have generated similar production and defensive impacts to Dach with the Sabres and Canucks, respectively. Broberg, a defenseman, is in a similar situation to Turcotte, as he has so far struggled to find solid footing with the Oilers.
So sure, in a perfect world, the Hawks should’ve picked Zegras third overall. Seider or Matthew Boldy, who fell to the Wild at 12th but has roared into the NHL the past few months, might’ve been smarter choices, too.
But the Hawks also could’ve done a lot worse than Dach, based on what we know now. And that brings up another important point: it’s still very early to be re-drafting and re-evaluating the 2019 class. None of these players will peak for several more years, by which point the goalposts may have moved substantially.
So when drooling over highlights of Zegras’ alley-oop assist in Buffalo or lacrosse-style goal in Montreal, try not to imagine him starring in a Hawks sweater in Dach’s place.
That’s neither how the NHL draft works nor what should be expected of Dach.
