Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan recently called the offense “predictable.” Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was asked about that assessment and didn’t necessarily disagree.
So, what went wrong with the Jaguars’ offense that led to that predictability?
“At times, I think you could say that about other offenses as well, but I just think when you struggle to, for us it’s whether it’s certain plays unfolding, not going our way or scheme or whatever, we weren’t able to run the ball consistently, effectively, the last few years and I think that really gave us trouble, to be honest,” Lawrence said via Sports Illustrated.
In terms of yards per rush as a team, the Jaguars ranked in the bottom half of the NFL. By ESPN’s run-block win rate metric, Jacksonville would rank just 25th.
There is a massive amount of added stress that is put on an offense when the running game is struggling. A lack of early down success puts the offense behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations.
At this point, in those dreaded get back on track situations as the offense faces second and third-and-longs, they do become predictable. In these scenarios, the defense knows a passing play is coming, so the defensive front pins its ears back while the secondary has the advantage in coverage–there’s only so many routes that can be ran on 3rd-and-9 that get the offense beyond the sticks.
“It’s hard to get everything else going when that’s struggling, so I think that’s where you maybe can see the predictability is when that’s not working, and you have to lean on pushing the ball downfield or getting the ball in the perimeter,” Lawrence added. “I think that’s where you can kind of see maybe some predictability.”
On the flip side, a strong running game keeps the offense ahead of the sticks and in short down-and-distance situations, where the entire playbook is open to them. On a 2nd-and-2, the offense can attack the entire field, which spreads the defense out, keeps them off balanced, and is now adding a layer of unpredictability.
Both Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby will be returning at the running back position in 2025. However, the offensive line will have to be addressed, not only to bolster the depth, but to improve the run game, which will then help take some of the burden off the passing game.
