Liverpool’s defending has come under severe criticism throughout this season and in the vast majority of matches the condemnation has unfortunately been fully merited. The Reds’ attack had remained strong throughout the campaign but even that has started to fall away too.
At the World Cup break, Liverpool averaged 2.11 non-penalty expected goals per league match in 2022/23, the best in the Premier League (per Understat). While that figure hasn’t dropped drastically, Jurgen Klopp’s side have fallen to third in the division, likely as a result of trying to be more solid to guard against the issues at the other end.
A simple metric highlights their current issues. Opta classify chances where you would expect the attacker to score to be clear-cut (or 'big', as they are also known). The Reds have had 60 of them in the league this season, second only to Manchester City. They have been thin on the ground in recent games in all competitions though.
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In the last two matches, they’ve been non-existent. While a lack of clear-cut chances could be forgiven with an unfamiliar front three in the FA Cup replay at Wolves, the likes of Andy Robertson and Mohamed Salah – key players on the creativity front – returned against Chelsea yet still Liverpool drew a blank.
In fairness, these were the first two games in this campaign in which the Reds did not have at least one clear-cut chance. But this only occurred twice in the whole of their 63-game quadruple bid last season, and not until their 58th fixture (the 1-1 draw with Tottenham). You have to go back to November 2020, and matches with Atalanta and Brighton, for the last time a Liverpool side failed to have a big chance in two successive games.
As potentially important as the return of Robertson and Salah was against Chelsea, the fact Trent Alexander-Arnold only played the final 18 minutes in the latter of the last two matches carried even greater weight. Almost all the Reds’ high-level creativity has flowed through his boots in recent weeks.
Despite their poor performance in the first half of their defeat at Brentford, Liverpool were still able to fashion a pair of big chances. Salah teed up Darwin Nunez for one, which Ben Mee blocked on the goal line, before Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain played in Kostas Tsimikas. Talk about familiar and unfamiliar combinations, eh?
Anyway, in the second half, Alexander-Arnold crossed for Oxlade-Chamberlain to reduce the arrears from a clear-cut opportunity. The same duo combined twice in the debacle at Brighton, though in truth the midfielder didn’t make a great connection for either shot; the chances were clear-cut in location if not execution.
Between these two games was the 2-2 FA Cup draw with Wolves. On this occasion, Alexander-Arnold set up a pair of big chances for Darwin Nunez. Most notable was his sublime pass for the Uruguayan’s goal but he also set him up from a corner in the second half.
Four minutes prior to that, Salah had scored from a clear-cut chance. However, this was not directly created by a teammate, as Cody Gakpo’s attempted pass only reached Liverpool’s number 11 following a defensive error by Toti. This means that the Reds’ last five big chances which can be truly attributed all belong to Alexander-Arnold.
His most recent was the 100th he has set up since the start of 2018/19, at least 22 more than any other player at the club in that time. For him to be heavily involved is not a surprise, it’s the lack of additional creativity from his teammates which is the concern.
Nunez’s return from his recent injury should help. Liverpool have had a clear-cut chance every 25 minutes when he has been on the pitch, compared to every 41 in his absence. But the responsibility for creating them can not lie solely on the shoulders of the right-back in a team which is defensively suspect. It’s time for the rest of Klopp’s roster to start contributing.
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