Hobart — a city with no passenger trains or trams, a single ferry route and limited bus patronage — is about to get a 23,000-seat stadium close to the CBD.
The proposal for a stadium at Macquarie Point forms part of the state government's plan to convince the AFL to grant the state a team.
The business case for the stadium predicts the multi-use entertainment precinct would annually host "at least" 44 events and see 587,000 people walk through its doors.
So how does Hobart, a city of just over 200,000 people, move that many people in and out of the CBD?
What are the options?
The state government's business case for the site doesn't say exactly how it will do this.
However, it does note the site will "unlock transport corridors", most notably the proposed Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor link.
The corridor has had numerous development proposals and technical studies over the past decade, with a light rail, trackless tram, and extended bus network all considered.
The state government has previously signalled a rapid bus transit system along the corridor will be pursued.
The business case uses the planned Te Kaha stadium in Christchurch as a similar development example. That site won't include general car parking.
A spokesperson for the Department of State Growth said a traffic management and transport study for the Macquarie Point precinct was also underway.
But details remain scarce.
In January, a department spokesperson said the report was expected to be released in the coming months and would include public and private transport options, ferries, buses and rideshare options.
What about a light rail?
The Hobart Northern Suburbs Rail Action Group (HNSRAG) said with the 23,000-seat stadium appearing to be locked in, a light rail system be crucial to ease congestion during events there.
The disused rail line running through Hobart's northern suburbs has been touted as a route for a commuter rail service since freight trains ceased operating along it.
HNSRAG president Toby Rowallan said a bus network alone would not cope with a sell-out event at the stadium.
In a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into the stadium, Mr Rowallan said a light rail service could move between 4,000 and 20,000 people each hour in one direction.
Buses, he said, would only move between 2,000 and 8,000 people over the same time period.
"Even if they had the best possible busway, if you had [the stadium] full of 30,000 people, the busway would leave 22,000 people stranded," Mr Rowallan said.
"And they will have to use the car or walk or ride, and you will have total traffic chaos."
The latest light rail report, commissioned by State Growth in 2020, found it would "have the largest impact on city-shaping outcomes followed by trackless tram and bus rapid options".
However, it would also have the highest cost.
Transport Minister Michael Ferguson appeared to put the project to rest in February 2022, when he told ABC Radio Hobart the "light rail is out".
Stadium a 'nail in the coffin' for rail
Urban planner Steven Burgess said the financial case for light rail did not stack up, but the existing bus network could be used to manage the number of people expected to use the stadium.
"I'm not sure that Northern Transport light rail needed any more nails in its coffin, but the fact that they've made it a stadium instead of an urban renewal project probably puts it to bed," Mr Burgess said.
"For a 20,000-seat stadium that will be full, say, 10 times a year, [light rail] doesn't even come close to adding up.
"Except for those few event days where it'll be three or four of the football games … and maybe two or three of the T20 games the rest of the time, it'll be a minimal transport load compared to if it had been fully developed as an urban renewal area."
Mr Burgess, who runs his own consultancy firm and has advised State Growth in the past, said for busy events, extra bus services could be added to meet demand.
"But that's only a few days a year and the light rail is not going to help most of those people either way," he said.
"If you think of all the big stadiums that are working really successfully around Australia, like Adelaide Oval, there's not really that much parking there and not many buses go to the door."
'More logic and consistency' needed for planning
City of Hobart Mayor Anna Reynolds said regardless of whether the stadium was built, projected population growth for the region meant mass transit solutions were needed.
"It just would be such a tragedy if there was no use of that northern corridor for a public transport system, whether that's bus, rapid bus or light rail," Ms Reynolds said.
She said a centralised planning authority was needed.
"I do think there needs to be more logic and consistency to our big-event transport services because it's all a bit hit and miss at the moment," she said.
"They don't really have the sort of institutional capacity and expertise to do that public transport planning, which is why we've argued for a number of years they establish a public transport commission.
"Public transport and designing strategic public transport systems is a big piece of work and you need to have experts doing that work — not just commissioning consultant reports and hoping something will happen."
A hybrid system solution
Urban planner Irene Duckett said she envisioned a hybrid system comprising buses, rail, and ferries to adapt to the potential influx of visitors.
"Buses are one solution, but that rail corridor is perfect for something, whether it's a light rail or whether it's another form of transport," Ms Duckett said.
"The growth that we're getting now in Hobart is east to west, so the buses are still going to be important for building those east-west connections."
And, Ms Duckett said, the state had only reached the "tip of the iceberg" in terms of the potential for its ferry services.
But for now, congestion in Hobart might be inevitable, she said.
"Right now, there's no incentive to use alternatives, but you've got to get to that pinch point where it is uncomfortable," she said.
"Then you start looking at alternatives, and then we could start to grow as a city with proper infrastructure and an uptake of that infrastructure."
