Afternoon summary
Keir Starmer has suggested that the government has “completely lost control” of net migration, following reports saying figures out later this month will show it at a record high of around 700,000. (See 12.09am.) He spoke out as Rishi Sunak, who is committed to reducing the overall level of net migration, faces pressure from within his party to bring down overall numbers. Since becoming PM Sunak has mostly focused on illegal migration, which accounts for only a small fraction of the overall immigration total. In the past Starmer has avoided saying total immigration numbers should come down, but he has said that businesses should end their dependence on foreign workers (see 3.34pm).
In the Times today Ben Ansell, a politics professor at Oxford University, is quoted arguing that tactical voting will be crucial at the next election, and that it could deliver a wipeout of the Tories. He says:
Tactical voting could be the difference between a narrow [Labour] victory and something approaching total wipeout for the Tories. A fairly reasonable estimate of tactical voting makes it very, very, very hard for the Conservatives to break 200 seats, let alone get to a majority …
Even with the polls narrowing, if Labour and the Liberal Democrats are efficient you could still end up with a Labour majority and the Lib Dems with 50 seats.
This is a summary of an article that Ansell made at much greater length in a Substack article after the local elections.
Ansell has also developed an election predictor tool which gives predicted seat numbers for the main parties, based on what share of the vote they might have, but which also adjusts those numbers depending on what proportion of people with the option of deploying an anti-Tory tactical vote actually use it. It’s here.
As Ansell illustrates in this tweet (commenting on a poll showing Labour on 41%, and the Tories on 29%), tactical voting could make a huge difference.
Plug this latest poll into my app and you get a good Labour majority. Allow for thirty percent tactical voting you get a large Labour majority. Have fifty percent tactical voting and you get Blair 1997. https://t.co/uyWfHAQrtG pic.twitter.com/2OwNKQeppp
— Ben Ansell (@benwansell) May 8, 2023
Reform of the points-based immigration system is one of the measures included in an 86-page document setting out the Labour party’s policies, which has been prepared ahead of a meeting of its national policy forum (NPF) later this year. LabourList has seen a copy and published a summary.
On immigration, it says:
Any movement in the points-based migration system will come alongside new conditions to boost skills and more training, provide better pay and conditions and invest in new technology. When a sector is already heavily reliant on immigration, it will be required to develop these plans through dialogue and negotiation involving employers and trade unions.
The NPF draws up a policy programme that provides the bedrock for the manifesto. But the final decision about what will be in the manifesto will be decided after the election is announced, and it may well include policies not seen by the NPF.
Updated
How Labour says it would address 'immigration dependency' in the economy
Labour aides say that Keir Starmer’s comment this morning (see 12.09pm) suggesting the government has “completely lost control” of immigration – not illegal immigration, but overall net immigration – follows on from what he said in his speech to the CBI last autumn.
Starmer used that speech to say that he wanted British businesses to end their dependence on cheap foreign labour. He said Labour would adopt a pragmatic approach to allowing firms to use foreign workers to address skills shortages. But he went on:
With my Labour government any movement in our point-based migration system, whether via the skilled occupation route, or the shortage worker list, will come with new conditions for business.
We will expect you to bring forward a clear plan for higher skills and more training, for better pay and conditions, for investment in new technology.
But our common goal must be to help the British economy off its immigration dependency. To start investing more in training up workers who are already here.
After the speech the SNP accused Starmer of trying to “out-Tory the Tories” on immigration. But in his Q&A with journalists Starmer would not say whether he wanted overall immigration numbers to fall, as the Tories say they want.
Updated
Zelenskiy thanks Sunak for supply of long-range Storm Shadow missiles
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukranian president, has thanked Rishi Sunak for the government’s decision to supply Ukraine with long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles, No 10 says. Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude when the two spoke by phone this afternoon. In a read-out of the call, Downing Street said:
The prime minister said he was pleased to deliver on the commitment he made in February to provide Ukraine with the long-range capabilities they need to defend themselves.
The leaders discussed the importance of the international community sustaining the level of support it has provided so far to Ukraine, particularly as the country prepares to intensify its military operations.
The prime minister restated the UK’s commitment to ensuring Ukraine prevails and secures a just and lasting peace.
Zelenskiy also thanked the UK for hosting Eurovision on behalf of Ukraine, while Sunak asked Zelenskiy to thank his wife for her attendance at the coronation last week.
Updated
This is from Jonathan Portes, an economics professor and immigration specialist, on the debate about whether net immigration is too high.
Higher immigration - especially international students and skilled workers in IT/business services/health - is by far the biggest economic upside of Brexit to date (indeed arguably the *only* major economic upside!).
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) May 12, 2023
Government/Ministers should say so..https://t.co/X2BrDLq5P4
Labour's Shaun Davies to take over as chair of Local Government Association
Following last week’s local elections in England, Labour is now the party with the largest number of councillors in Britain. And it is the largest group on the Local Government Association.
Following last week's #LocalElections2023, I can now confirm the new political balance at @LGAcomms with @LGA_Labour as the largest group.
— Mark Lloyd (@MarkLloydLGA) May 12, 2023
Many thanks to colleagues and our independent consultants for their hard work in the calculations. pic.twitter.com/90sX221kuq
With Labour the largest party, a Labour councillor, Shaun Davies, leader of Telford and Wrekin council, is taking over as LGA chair. He will replace James Jamieson, a Conservative.
I’ve spent the last 12 years in #LocalGovt leading locally and nationally, I am delighted to be taking up the role of Chair of @LGAcomms in July - working cross party, cross sector, bringing elected members & officers together for the benefit of our communities. https://t.co/W5b4v4RXuO
— Shaun Davies 🌹🏴🇬🇧 (@CllrShaunDavies) May 12, 2023
Updated
The Migration Observatory, a thinktank focusing on migration policy based at Oxford University, published a report in December looking at why net migration to the UK has been rising. One factor has been people coming to the UK to flee war or persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong respectively. But the biggest category for visas covers people who come to the UK to study. There has also been a significant increase in the number of work visas being issued. This chart shows the trends.
Arrivals on small boats across the Channel (45,755 in 2022, according to the official count) account for only a small fraction of overall net migration numbers.
Boris Johnson has joined calls for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, to be allowed to address Eurovision. In a message on Twitter he said:
It would have been right to hear from President Zelenskyy at tomorrow night’s #Eurovision. There is only one reason the contest is not in Ukraine and that is because of Putin’s illegal war.
It would have been right to hear from President Zelenskyy at tomorrow night's #Eurovision. There is only one reason the contest is not in Ukraine and that is because of Putin’s illegal war.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) May 12, 2023
Updated
Rishi Sunak has refused to offer any criticism of the Metropolitan police over their handling of protests in London on the day of the coronation, even though the Met itself has admitted that some arrests were a mistake.
At the No 10 lobby briefing today, asked if Sunak stood by his expressions of gratitude to the police despite the revelation that a fan of the royal family was arrested and detained for 13 hours just because she was standing next to Just Stop Oil protesters, the PM’s spokesperson replied:
Yes. As the prime minister said, it was an enormous policing effort to keep the public safe and do everything they did.
Updated
Sunak 'disappointed' Zelenskiy won't be allowed to address Eurovision, says No 10
Downing Street says Rishi Sunak is “disappointed” by the European Broadcasting Union’s decision to stop Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, making a video appearance during the Eurovision final.
The PM’s spokesperson said:
The prime minister believes it would be fitting for President Zelenskiy to address the event and we’re disappointed by the decision from the European Broadcasting Union.
The values and freedoms that President Zelenskiy and the people of Ukraine are fighting for are not political, they’re fundamental, and Eurovision themselves recognised that last year when they rightly suspended Russia’s participation from the competition.
But there are no plans to intervene and ask broadcasters to change their mind, No 10 suggested.
Sunak still committed to reducing migration overall, No 10 says
In their 2019 manifesto the Conservatives promised, on immigration, that “there will be fewer lower-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down”. That is not a promise that has been kept, and the Daily Telegraph today claims (on the basis of an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank) that figures out later this month could show net migration between 700,000 and 997,000 for the year ending December 2022.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak remained committed to cutting the level of net migration. He said:
I’m not going to get ahead and start speculating what figures may or may not show when they are published later this month.
The prime minister’s overall commitment is to reduce migration overall and that is what we are trying to do through tackling illegal migration and the points-based system, which allows us flexibility based on our own needs.
The spokesperson said he did not believe Sunak had “ever put a figure on” how much he would like to see migration fall by.
Updated
The Conservatives’ decision to water down proposed legislation to remove 4,000 EU laws from the statute books is still a “reckless” and “irresponsible” project, leading barristers have said. Lisa O’Carroll has the story here.
Starmer claims government has 'lost control' of overall migration numbers
Yesterday the Financial Times reported that migration figures due out later this month are expected to show net migration at record levels. It said net migration was at 504,000 between June 2021 and June 2022, but that the figure for 2022 could pass 700,000.
Today the Telegraph reports that the figure could reach almost one million.
Asked about the reports, Keir Starmer told broadcasters the government had “lost control” of immigration.
I think we need to wait and see what those figures are, but I’ve seen that speculation. I think if we’re anywhere near that figure then it will show the government has completely lost control. We need a managed approach and we haven’t got that.
Like almost everything else under this government, there’s no plan, there’s no control and, just like everything else, it seems like the system is broken.
Starmer’s comments represent a departure because, in the past, Labour has mostly focused it criticism of the government in relation to migration on illegal immigration, where even the home secretary, Suella Braverman, admits the government has lost control.
On legal immigration, in the past Labour has tended to be at least as liberal as the government, or more so. Starmer famously defended “free movement” when he was running for Labour leader.
But with the scale of legal immigration now becoming a political headache for the Tories, he may have sensed an opportunity. Labour has also said that British companies should not be reliant on foreign labour, and that training UK workers should be a bigger priority.
Updated
Speaking to journalists this morning, Keir Starmer was also asked about the revelation this week that Labour had spent three years dealing with a complaint from a woman who said she was sexually harassed by a senior aide. The aide has now resigned.
Asked if he was embarrassed the case had taken so long to resolve, Starmer said:
I think all of these allegations have to be taken extremely seriously, and they are taken seriously by me and the party.
I do understand, from my experience as chief prosecutor, how difficult it is for people to come forward.
That is among the reasons why we made our process completely independent, so it is not a political process any more.
What I would say is: I would encourage anybody to come forward and to feel they are supported through that independent process.
Streeting says Labour considering whether plan to ban smoking over time would be workable
In his Today interview Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, did not just talk about workforce numbers. (See 10.42am.) This is what he said on other aspects of Labour health policy.
Streeting said in theory he supported the idea of banning smoking over time, but that he needed to be convinced it was workable. New Zealand has passed a law that would increase the smoking age over time, so that people who are children now will grow up never being allowed to buy cigarettes. A government review published last year made the same recommendation. Ministers have not accepted the plan, but George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, recently said he was in favour. Asked if he agreed, Streeting said in principle this was a good idea, but that he was worried about the practicalities. He said:
The question for me on the New Zealand-style smoking ban isn’t whether it’s desirable, because I think in policy terms, and in terms of public opinion, interestingly, I think there is an appetite and a policy driver there to do it.
For me it’s about is it workable, and that’s what we’re looking at at the moment and what we’re consulting on …
In practice, is it going to work? Because it would be a great headline, and certainly a great signal of intent from the Labour party, but as with everything else, not just in terms of money, but whether we can actually deliver in practice, we are stress-testing all of the potential policies we might put in our manifesto against how much would it cost, can we pay for it, and then can we deliver it, is it going to work?
Streeting’s answer implied he was sceptical about whether this policy would work.
He said improving cancer outcomes would be a key test for the next Labour government. Labour’s manifesto will be built around five missions, one of which covers health. The party has not published details of its health missions yet, but Streeting implied they would include a promise to improve cancer survival rates. He said:
In order to improve cancer outcomes – and I’m saying today, judge the next Labour government on cancer outcomes – it requires us to think radically about how we reform and reshape the NHS, to speed up diagnosis, improve access to treatment, and getting the diagnostic phase right as well.
Streeting confirmed that he wanted to make it easier for patients to get diagnostic tests without going through a GP. He said:
One of the things that we’ve said, partly to reduce pressure on general practice, which I think is overwhelmed, is to create new front doors into the NHS as well.
One of the things that I’ve reflected on, particularly looking at continental Europe and the way that other countries are doing the front door much better, is moving some of that diagnostic capacity into the community and making it much easier to [access].
Look at what Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester is doing in relation to chest X-rays, for example. You’ve got to make sure it’s clinically sound and appropriate, but making it easy for people to get the diagnostic testing is mission critical.
Updated
Starmer says figures showing 0.1% growth in first quarter of 2023 'nothing to celebrate'
Keir Starmer has said that today’s GDP figures are “nothing to celebrate”. Graeme Wearden, who is covering the response to the GDP announcement, has more on his business live blog.
Wes Streeting says he wants government to 'nick' Labour's plan to boost NHS workforce
Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, is taking part in a roundtable discussion on cancer policy with Keir Starmer later, and this morning he was on the Today programme to talk about health policy.
The NHS is one of the most important issues to voters, and at the moment Labour has a distinctive offer on the subject; as announced at the party conference last year, it is proposing a big increase in NHS recruitment to address the workforce shortage in hospitals and surgeries.
But there is a problem; as with childcare, the Conservatives are working on their own counter-offer in the hope that they can close this down as a policy area where Labour has an obvious lead. Paul Waugh writes about this in his column in the i.
After years of delays, it looks like on this crucial issue [Rishi] Sunak is set to do something all his previous four Tory prime ministers failed to do: oversee the publication of a comprehensive workforce strategy.
Although ministers have been coy about the timing, with one this week simply saying it will arrive “within months”, I understand that the expectation in Whitehall is that it will be unveiled just before, or on, 5 July, the 75th anniversary of the NHS itself …
Once the workforce plan is published, Labour will no longer be able to argue at the next election that the government lacks a plan. Although the party has won plaudits for focusing on reform not just more cash, many in healthcare know its non-dom-funded increase in doctors and nurses only nibbles at the edges of the problem.
In his Today interview Streeting seemed to acknowledge that the government will try to match his policy; he said wanted the Tories to “nick our workforce plan”. He told the programme:
It does take time [to train more doctors] and that’s why we’ve urged the government to nick our workforce plan. I would be delighted if the government double the number of medical school places, as we’ve suggested and proposed ahead of our manifesto.
In his column, Waugh suggested Labour might respond by proposing more capital spending on the NHS. In his interview Streeting did propose this, in general terms. He said:
We’re not investing enough in CT scanners and diagnostic equipment. So there are things that could be done in relatively short order to improve our performance.
Updated
Minister says rail unions should let their members vote on pay offer
And here are the lines from the interviews given this morning by Huw Merriman, the rail minister.
Merriman criticised Aslef and the RMT for failing to give their members a vote on the pay offer from rail companies. He said:
The sad reality of this situation is that there are offers on the table which have been given to both the train drivers’ union and the RMT.
The leadership have chosen not to put those offers to their members and I feel if they did, there would be the opportunity for members to decide if they wish to take them.
When the Aslef executive rejected the offer from the Rail Delivery Group (RDG) last month, it said it was “risible”. The RMT has also rejected it. But the RMT has accepted a separate offer from Network Rail.
Merriman claimed the RDG offer was similar to the Network Rail one, and he said it was unreasonable for the RMT to ballot members on the latter, but not the former. Arguing that the Network Rail offer was “very similar” to the RDG one, he said:
If that’s the case for someone who works on the tracks, why not their fellow workers who work on the trains? And that’s what we’re calling the RMT and Aslef’s leadership to do.
He claimed the pay offer would mean train drivers could earn £65,000 for a 35-hour week. He said:
If you look at the train driver situation, they are paid just under £60,000. The pay offer would take them to £65,000 for a 35-hour week.
We feel these are fair and reasonable, and we need to see those put to their members. So it is not the case that there is not an offer there — the offer is there, we just need it put to members to see what they think about it.
He said working conditions for rail drivers should be changed so that Sunday services no longer rely on drivers volunteering to work. He told BBC Breakfast:
What we are looking to do is change the way that the workforce operates. For example, at the moment we have to ask train operators to get volunteers to work on a Sunday.
Well, you and I want to use the train on a Sunday, we can’t work like that.
So, we are looking to modernise but really just turn it into the type of retail opportunity that most people would recognise in terms of buying a service or actually working within it.
Updated
Police have been forced to apologise to a royal fan after arresting and detaining her for 13 hours for standing near a group of Just Stop Oil protesters at King Charles’s coronation, Tobi Thomas reports.
Aslef rail strike not timed to coincide with Eurovision, says union leader
Here are some more lines from Mick Whelan’s interviews this morning.
Whelan, the Aslef general secretary, rejected claims that today’s strike had been timed to target people trying to travel to Liverpool for Eurovision. When it was put to him on the Today programme that people would not believe the timing of the strike was a coincidence, he replied:
Strangely enough, I don’t really watch Eurovision, believe it or not. I didn’t even know they had semi-finals.
What happened to us was a direct reaction to that non-deal that came out. Under the legislation we had to give 14 days’ notice [for a strike]. And the first available day after 14 days was today, unfortunately.
If we were targeting Eurovision, we would have done the Friday, Saturday and the Sunday.
Asked about Aslef’s plan to strike on Saturday 3 June, the day of the FA Cup final, Whelan replied:
I’ll make two brief points on this one. Network Rail shut down the whole of the West Coast last year on cup final day, deliberately. But nobody makes a comment …
If somebody can name me a day where there’s not an event going on in the UK that isn’t going to get a hit at some point if there’s any form of disruption, I’d love to know.
He criticised the government for not negotiating with his union since January. He said:
I haven’t seen the government since January, one token meeting with the rail minister on January 6, and we’ve neither had hide nor hair from the government that are meant to be facilitating and aiding these talks.
They talk a good game, they don’t actually engage, they haven’t taken any ownership of this process as far as we’re concerned.
He claimed the government was only interested in talking to the rail companies.
Updated
Updated
UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.3% in March
The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in March, by 0.3%, as the cost of living crisis and industrial action took a toll, Phillip Inman reports.
However, the economy grew by 0.1% over the first quarter as a whole, mainly because of a strong January, while growth flatlined in February, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Phillip’s full story is here.
Train drivers’ union accuses ministers of intentionally prolonging rail strikes
Good morning – unless you were hoping to travel somewhere by train, in which case it probably isn’t. As Gwyn Topham reports, a strike by the train drivers’ union Aslef will severely disrupt rail services in England today, while tomorrow there will be further cancellations because the RMT is going on strike.
Mick Whelan, the Aslef general secretary, and Huw Merriman, the rail minister, have both been doing a media round this morning. Whelan blamed the government for the strikes, claiming it had blocked moves that might lead to a settlement. He told BBC Breakfast:
At some point someone’s going to realise these are government-led strikes, the government are interfering in their free collective bargaining process and they want unrealistic targets.
They sent out a deal before Christmas that we’d never seen, we’d never negotiated, and tried to force it through by the back door in a total act of bad faith, and even then we came back to the table.
We suspended all action in the hope of finding a way forward and then what happens? We sit down for three months in good faith, we agree a process that we’re going to undertake and then right at the end someone interferes, revokes it, and puts out a deal that would contain all the red lines we previously opposed in those talks, destining it to fail.
I don’t think the government and the companies want a solution.
I will post more from the interviews shortly.
The House of Commons is not sitting today, and it looks relatively quiet. But there will be a Downing Street lobby briefing at 11.30am, and Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, are visiting a biomedical research institute where they will be holding a roundtable discussion on cancer.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a PC or a laptop. (It is not available on the app yet.) This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line, privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate), or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Updated
