April WTI crude oil (CLJ25) today is down -0.61 (-0.90%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ25) is up +0.0004 (+0.02%).
Crude oil prices are under pressure today from a stronger dollar. Also, the possible escalation of US tariffs that could exacerbate trade tensions that lead to slower growth and energy demand are weighing on crude prices after President Trump threatened to enact a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages if the EU doesn’t repeal a tax on US whiskey. In addition, the action by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut its global crude demand forecasts for this year is bearish for crude prices. Better than expected, global economic news today has limited losses in crude oil.
Undercutting crude prices is today’s action by the IEA to cut its 2025 global crude consumption forecast by about 100,000 bpd to about 1 million bpd and project a global crude surplus this year of 600,000 bpd, which could widen by another 400,000 bpd due to the announcement from OPEC+ that it will restart some halted crude output.
Today’s global economic news was better than expected, a positive factor for energy demand and crude prices. US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -2,000 to 220,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 225,000. Also, Eurozone Jan industrial production rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the largest increase in 5 months.
Crude prices have support in the medium-term from last Thursday when US Energy Secretary Wright said that he plans to seek up to $20 billion to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which currently stands at 395 million bbl but can hold a maximum of 700 million bbl.
Crude has carryover support from last Thursday when Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is willing to “shut down” Iran’s oil sector to achieve peace in the Middle East.
Ramped-up Russian oil exports are negative for crude prices after data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa showed Russian Feb oil products exports reached a 1-year high of 2.5 million bpd.
Crude prices were undercut when OPEC+ said last Monday it would restart some halted crude output in April, adding 138,000 bpd to global supplies. That is the first of a series of monthly hikes to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, which will gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won’t be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC Feb crude production rose +320,000 bpd to a 14-month high of 27.35 million bpd.
In a supportive factor for crude oil prices, the US on January 10 imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry that could curb global oil supplies. The measures targeted Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftgas, which exported about 970,000 bpd of Russian crude in the first 10 months of 2024, accounting for about 30% of its tanker flow, according to Bloomberg data. The US also targeted insurers and traders linked to hundreds of tanker cargoes. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -45,000 bpd to 3.48 million bpd in the week to March 9.
Crude oil demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices. According to Chinese customs data, China’s 2024 crude imports fell -1.9% y/y to 553 MMT. China is the world’s biggest crude importer.
An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +4.9% w/w to 84.15 million bbl in the week ended March 7.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of March 7 were -5.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.8% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending March 7 rose +0.5% w/w to 13.575 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending March 7 were unchanged at 486 rigs, moderately above the 3-year low of 472 rigs posted on January 24. The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
