It’s crisis time for the Yankees. They are a losing team this late in a season for the first time in almost three decades. To get to 89 wins, the projected number for the third AL wild card, New York would have to finish 29–12.
As difficult as that sounds, consider its current downward trajectory. The Yankees have won one of their last 13 series over the past two months, entering a weekend series against the Red Sox. Take it back further: In their past 208 games, including the postseason, the Yankees are 101–107. They have hit .232 in that span. Only the A’s and Pirates have been worse.
This is not about a patch of bad luck or a bad month. The Yankees have been in a slow descent toward this mediocrity. How in the world did New York become a last-place team with a losing record? Let us count the ways.
1. Aaron Judge’s toe
Once Judge ran into the right field fence at Dodger Stadium, the Yankees’ season went sideways. Without Judge over the next 42 games, the Yankees went 19–23. They were the worst-hitting team in baseball, while Judge was on the IL (.220). They simply did not have enough of a supporting cast around one of the most important players in the game. They especially need a left-handed impact bat when he is in the lineup.
2. The ALCS warning signs
The Yankees hit .162 and whiffed 50 times in a four-game sweep by the Astros. Houston exposed their weakness against spin. MLB pitchers threw 30.8% breaking pitches in the regular season. That number increased to 34.4% in the postseason. The Astros threw a whopping 42.9% breaking pitches in that sweep. New York batted .154 against them. This year the Yankees are hitting .196 against spin. Only the Pirates are worse.
3. The new rules
The game changed. New York didn’t. It still relies on older players, taking pitches, walks and homers. Only the Mariners take more pitches in the strike zone than the Yankees. New York hits .238 with runners in scoring position. Only the Padres and A’s are worse. They are drawn to high-strikeout, high-launch, low-average players such as Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney and Franchy Cordero.
The Yankees are the oldest team in baseball when it comes to position players. Anthony Rizzo, 33; Giancarlo Stanton, 33; Aaron Hicks, 33; Kyle Higashioka, 33; DJ LeMahieu, 34; and Josh Donaldson, 37; account for more than a third of the team’s at bats. They have hit .222. All of them have posted a below-average OPS+.
The Yankees don’t have the athleticism and speed to play the new style. The three slowest teams in baseball, as ranked by sprint speed, are the Mets, Yankees and White Sox, all losing teams. Without shifts, the Yankees’ defensive runs saved ranking sunk from first last year to 12th this year.
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
4. Injuries
This is one of the risks with an older team. The Yankees have paid more money to players on the IL than any other team ($68 million, or 32% of their payroll so far). They have lost 1,574 player days to the IL, second only to the Dodgers.
5. December 3, 2017
That’s the day international free agent Shohei Ohtani told the Yankees (and Red Sox) he wasn’t interested in signing with them. The Yankees had been saving their international bonus money just for Ohtani. Eight days later, they pivoted to Stanton, acquired in a trade with the Marlins.
They secured one of the game’s elite sluggers but were on the hook for the inevitable downside of a 6’6”, 245-pound outfielder. That downside came quickly. In his six years as a Yankee, Stanton has received one MVP vote (a 10th-place vote in 2018) and has been a duplicate of Curtis Granderson with less durability:
Career with Yankees
| Years | G | HR | Avg. | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Granderson |
4 |
513 |
115 |
.245 |
.335 |
.495 |
.829 |
Stanton |
6 |
519 |
129 |
.248 |
.332 |
.491 |
.824 |
This year Stanton is seeing more breaking pitches than ever in his career and doing less with them.
Stanton vs. Breaking Pitches (Full Seasons Since 2017)
| Pct. | Avg. | SLG | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 |
28.8% |
.246 |
.545 |
16 |
2018 |
31.5% |
.191 |
.391 |
12 |
2021 |
31.0% |
.254 |
.477 |
11 |
2022 |
29.8% |
.201 |
.431 |
11 |
2023 |
33.2% |
.181 |
.362 |
4 |
6. The Bryce Harper decision
GM Brian Cashman indicated in December 2018 that the Yankees were good with their six outfielders and did not see Harper as a possible first baseman. Those six outfielders? Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar. Not a left-handed power hitter among them. The Yankees took a hard pass on Harper.
The Yankees abandoned the franchise’s traditional lean toward left-handed power, putting faith in opposite field power of right-handed hitters such as Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu and Gary Sánchez. New York keeps paying for that imbalance:
Lefthanded Home Runs
Past Five Yankees Championship Teams
| HR | MLB Rank | |
|---|---|---|
2009 |
164 |
1 |
2000 |
107 |
6 |
1999 |
100 |
4 |
1998 |
110 |
1 |
1996 |
95 |
5 |
Lefthanded Home Runs
Past Five Yankees Teams
| HR | MLB Rank | |
|---|---|---|
2023 |
44 |
27 |
2022 |
77 |
9 |
2021 |
53 |
26 |
2020 |
14 |
28 |
2019 |
83 |
19 |
This year the Yankees rank 30th in OBP by lefthanders (.297), 29th in batting average (.220) and 26th in slugging (.380).
7. Growing pains
Anthony Volpe, 22; Oswald Peraza, 23; and Oswaldo Cabrera, 24; were not ready to pick up the slack from the aging veterans. Volpe is a plus runner and defender who gives New York some needed energy. But his swing and approach will need an offseason tune-up. Almost all his damage comes from fastballs middle-down. He is the game’s second-worst hitter on secondary pitches (.143, one point ahead of Kyle Schwarber), and his uphill bat path leaves him vulnerable to high fastballs (.153). At .291, he has the worst OBP by a qualified Yankee infielder since Álvaro Espinoza in 1991.
Peraza controls the strike zone well but doesn’t hit the ball hard and is overmatched by fastballs (.074). Cabrera regressed from the promise he showed in 44 games last year.
8. Help for Gerrit Cole
The Yankees’ rotation has a losing record (35–38) for the first time since 2016 and its highest ERA (4.69, 21st in MLB) since ’04. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes broke down, Luis Severino simply broke and Domingo Germán entered rehabilitation for alcohol abuse. Those four starters are 13–19 combined.
