The 2024 Tour de France is underway, so it's time to run the rule over the form of those vying for the yellow jersey in the first-ever Tour in its 121-year history to finish outside Paris.
Jonas Vingegaard remained the most important missing part of the puzzle until his Visma-Lease a Bike team announced just nine days before the Tour that he would be on the start line in Florence on June 29. However, with no racing in his legs, it's unknown how his form will be.
By contrast, close rival Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) was very transparent in his build-up, confirming his support squad for the race on Geraint Thomas’ podcast and posting multiple updates, admitting most recently that "he's never felt so good on the bike".
The Slovenian will be hungrier than ever to regain the yellow jersey after losing out to Vingegaard for the past two seasons. He’s rested and recovered from the Giro d’Italia but will have to achieve something the cycling world hasn’t seen since the late 90s if he is to claim the Giro-Tour double.
The final key warm-up races have been completed at the Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse, with only the upcoming national championships weekend left to show race form.
A long-awaited return to GC winning form for Primož Roglič came at the Dauphiné alongside a perfect dress rehearsal for his Bora-Hansgrohe domestiques. But it wasn’t without drama as he only narrowly hung onto his lead by eight seconds, so he still had some work to do for the Tour.
The Tour de Suisse wasn’t as close or dramatic, with two of Pogačar's super domestiques for the Tour, Adam Yates and João Almeida dominating the field in every uphill test. This only further solidified Pogačar’s status as outright favourite but Vingegaard's now-confirmed appearance could throw a spanner in the works for the Slovenian.
With that in mind, here is the third 2024 instalment of our ranking of the favourites for Tour victory.
1. Tadej Pogačar
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: Winner 2020 & 2021, runner-up 2022 & 2023, 11 stage wins
- 2024 results: 1st Giro d’Italia, 1st Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 1st Volta a Catalunya, 1st Strade Bianche, 14 wins
Every time Tadej Pogačar pins on a race number, he appears to be on the cusp of making history, be that taking his sixth Monument at 25 or winning the Giro d’Italia by the biggest margin since 1965. But the upcoming Tour de France presents perhaps his biggest challenge yet - becoming the first to complete the elusive Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998.
Despite all his dominance in 2024, Pogačar hasn’t donned the yellow jersey since Jonas Vingegaard and Jumbo-Visma ripped it from his back up the Col du Granon during the 2022 edition. However, with the Dane confirmed to start but in unknown form, he looks every bit likely to join the likes of Greg LeMond on three Tour de France wins.
Pogačar was stronger than ever at the Giro, especially on the toughest mountain stages and time trials. But now the Tour is just a matter of days away and it will become evident whether it simply is too hard to dominate six weeks at the highest level in cycling’s modern era.
Froome, Contador and Dumoulin all got close but failed, however, none of them seemed as likely to become the eighth rider to do it as Pogačar does now.
Vingegaard’s now-confirmed presence is the biggest threat to Pogačar’s pursuit of yellow, as despite the Slovenian cracking multiple times under the Dane’s superior climbing pressure in the past two Tours, he’s beaten the next-best rider by more than three and a half minutes. Only Vingegaard looks capable of stopping him.
Pogačar was excited to see him, however, ready to put on another show with his rival. "It's good to see him at the start. I think he's ready because otherwise, I don't think he'd be at the start," Pogačar said. "It's something I'm looking forward to – making a great show again."
The other big development was Pogačar revealing in his pre-race press conference that he contracted COVID-19 around 10 days ago. But he seems more than ready and stated that it barely affected him, admitting in another interview that he's "never felt so good on the bike" in the run-up to his fifth Tour de France.
Pogačar is a long way from the final podium in Nice but these next three weeks could further cement his legacy. Roche, Indurain and Pantani were the last, is Pogačar the next? It’s about time to find out.
2. Jonas Vingegaard
- Team: Visma-Lease a Bike
- Tour Experience: Winner 2022 & 2023, runner-up 2021, 3 stage wins
- 2024 results: 1st Tirreno Adriatico, 1st O Gran Camiño, 7 wins
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) has jumped from an honourable mention back to the second favourite for the Tour, thanks to his team Visma-Lease a Bike ending all the weeks of speculation and confirming that he will defend his title on June 20.
The news of the season came after the two-time defending Tour champion stepped up from light riding in Mallorca to high-altitude in Tignes at the start of June, first being joined by Wout van Aert and then those confirmed for the Tour de France at Visma's often-used training location.
With the confirmation now in, and despite all of Visma's injury woes in 2024, Vingegaard will take on the Tour in pursuit of a third title alongside a star-studded team. Wout van Aert was confirmed in the same release and the rest of the team will be made up of Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot, Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Wilco Kelderman, Jan Tratnik and Bart Lemmen.
That last name being the key one, Lemmen - who came in to replace Sepp Kuss after the American and key super domestique for Vingegaard was forced to pull out of the race due to COVID-19 before the start.
However, even with his place on the roster, what's still unknown is his shape. The narrative surrounding Vingegaard from Visma had always been that he would not start unless he was 100% fit and able to compete for a third win. But Visma sportive director Merijn Zeeman changed his tune recently and stated that it hinges on Vingegaard being “competitive”, rather than “fighting for yellow.
Vingegaard himself is of course unsure of how his body will react to three weeks of the toughest racing, with a tough parcours from the start in Florence right to the finish in Nice with the final stage time trial.
"I'm just happy to be here at the start line of the Tour de France. I think that's a victory in itself. I'm very happy and looking forward to the race now," said Vingegaard pre-race to reporters.
"I want to go for the best possible result in GC. But to be honest, it was a very, very bad crash, so just to be here, I'm very happy, and that's a victory in itself. Everything from here is a bonus."
He’ll need to refind his race rhythm instantly on the opening duo of punchy Italian stages with a hellish test arriving quickly on stage 4, which features the fabled Col du Galibier. Signs are looking good for Vingegaard but Visma were cautious to predict whether he'd challenge the top step of the podium and if he is to defeat Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) for a third time running, he’ll need to be at his absolute best. The first week could reveal all.
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3. Primož Roglič
- Team: Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe
- Tour Experience: Runner-up 2020, 4th 2018, 3 stage wins
- 2024 results: 1st & 2 stage wins Critérium du Dauphiné, stage win Itzulia Basque Country, 4 wins
Primož Roglič was well and truly back in June, firing on all cylinders with new team Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe at the Critérium du Dauphiné to take overall victory. It wasn’t without a scare on the final stage as Roglič only held onto his GC lead by eight seconds from Matteo Jorgenson but he could take great positives from the race.
The Slovenian netted back-to-back wins on stages 6 and 7 and it was reminiscent of the best Roglič. Out of the saddle, in the drops and sprinting uphill to the line for every bonus second he could get. The only difference was his green Bora jersey and those supporting him.
Grand Tour winner Jai Hindley and former top-five finisher at the Tour Aleksandr Vlasov took up the mantle of pacing up to Le Collet d'Allevard and Samoëns 1600. Given their own reputations as top climbers, it shouldn’t have been a surprise how strong they were but the trio’s chemistry looked like that of a well-oiled, experienced climbing core - not riders who had completed under 10 race days together.
The Dauphiné quelled most of the doubt cast over Roglič's form after he only managed 10th at Paris-Nice and following his return from injury after Itzulia Basque Country. He did unfortunately go down in the mass crash on stage 5 and with his crash history, will be hoping that was the last of the bad luck.
It's important to note that his new team have entered a new era themselves, with the official launch of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe arriving the week before the Tour. New kits, rebranded bikes and the promise of a bigger budget with the drinks company giant entering the WorldTour - Red Bull will be expecting big things of Roglič and the whole team.
If he can stay rubber-side down, Roglič and Pogačar will face off at the Tour and at a stage race for the first time since the 2022 edition. Their last head-to-head for Tour victory came at the dramatic 2020 race when Roglič seemed to have the better of his compatriot until a dramatic turn on the stage 20 time trial up to La Planche des Belles Filles. Four years on and it could be a race against the clock to Nice which secures Roglič and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe their dream win.
4. Remco Evenepoel
- Team: Soudal Quick-Step
- Tour Experience: Debutant
- 2024 results: 7th & stage win Critérium du Dauphiné, 2nd & stage win Paris-Nice, 1st Volta ao Algarve, 5 wins
Perhaps one of the most anticipated Tour de France debuts in years is about to commence as Remco Evenepoel gears up to take on his maiden Tour after returning from injury. He played down any chance at challenging overall victory at his first Critérium du Dauphiné with a broken collarbone and scapula hampering any sort of perfect run into June.
But after a blistering victory on the stage 3 time trial ahead of European Champion Josh Tarling and Olympic Champion Roglič, any questions of shoulder stiffness in his ‘aero bullet’ position were answered. Evenepoel dominated the 34km effort in the rainbow bands and moved into the leader’s jersey with a 30-second buffer over Roglič.
His earlier statements were confirmed when he got dropped on stages 6,7 and 8 as he suffered behind those not on the journey back from fractures or in better shape. But there wasn’t the capitulation from last year’s Vuelta where an awful day on the Col d'Aubisque ended his title defence. Instead, we saw Evenepoel the fighter emerge in the background, pacing his efforts well and holding onto seventh overall.
The added bonus of Mikel Landa's experience aided the young Belgian and having twice taken fourth at the Tour, Landa will be vital for Evenepoel to have a successful debut.
Evenepoel proved that he could hang on after being dropped, even managing to reduce his deficits in the final few kilometres of key mountain stages. It was a good sign for the Tour, while he also still had enough time from the Dauphiné to return to tip-top race shape ahead of June 29.
It may not end up with the dream podium Evenepoel wanted come the finale in Nice but the former World Champion is certainly going to give it a good crack. He’ll be eyeing up the stage 7 and 21 time trials on this year's Tour de France route either way and these could be the key to moving him up on GC with close to 60 kilometres against the clock on the menu.
He was realistic speaking pre-race, with Pogačar seen as the favourite in his eyes. "I expect Tadej to be unreachable, almost," Evenepoel said.
"I think what he showed in the Giro is already super impressive and he didn't have to go too deep, so it won't have tired him out. I think Tadej will be the man to beat for this Tour de France."
5. Carlos Rodríguez
- Team: Ineos Grenadiers
- Tour Experience: 5th 2023, 1 stage win
- 2024 results: 4th & stage win Critérium du Dauphiné, 1st Tour de Romandie, 2nd & stage win Itzulia Basque Country, 3 wins
Racing in June only confirmed more that Carlos Rodríguez should be Ineos Grenadiers’ out-and-out leader at the Tour, after another impressive one-week display at the Critérium du Dauphiné.
Rodríguez added a stage win in France to one from Itzulia Basque Country in April and the overall victory at the Tour de Romandie, showing that the Andalucian has stayed consistent throughout his build-up to the 2024 Tour.
It was also probably the hardest day at the Dauphiné to win, with seven days of constantly undulating roads in the legs and back-to-back-to-back tough mountain tests bringing the race to a close. However, Rodríguez only managed fourth overall behind Roglič, Jorgenson and surprise GC package Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). And this is no disrespect to Gee, who was simply excellent from start to finish at the Dauphiné, but Rodríguez would expect to beat him. Let alone finish 24 seconds down.
The biggest problem for the Ineos man was certainly the stage 4 time trial, where Gee beat him but also Evenepoel and Roglič finished way up on his time, 1:41 and 1:02 respectively.
With 59 ITT kilometres incoming throughout the Tour’s three weeks, Rodríguez will be hoping to limit the damage to the big four favourites who all excel in TTs. He’ll know he has to enter the days against the clock with an advantage over fellow podium challengers if he is to become the first Spaniard to finish in the top three since Alejandro Valverde in 2015. However, he is only 23 so still has his best legs ahead of him and the white jersey could be a real target with Pogačar no longer young enough to qualify.
He was later confirmed as co-leader alongside 2019 Tour winner Egan Bernal, with Tom Pidcock and Geraint Thomas set to play support roles throughout the three weeks.
6. Adam Yates
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: 3rd 2023, 9th 2022, 4th 2016, 1 stage win
- 2024 results: 1st & 2 stage wins Tour de Suisse, 1st & stage win Tour of Oman, 5 wins
Adam Yates' podium finish at last year's Tour demonstrated that he is more than simply a luxury domestique, but a potential auxiliary leader should mishap befall Pogačar.
The Briton enjoyed a stellar year in his first season at UAE Team Emirates, winning the UAE Tour, Tour de Romandie and the GP Montréal, and he started his 2024 campaign on a similarly buoyant note by conquering Green Mountain to take overall victory at the Tour of Oman.
A concussion sustained in a crash at the UAE Tour, however, set back Yates' progress, and after being kept out of Tirreno-Adriatico, the next step for the Briton was to return to racing at the Giro d'Abruzzo and The Tour of Romandie. But he wasn’t yet back at his best and mainly worked for teammates.
This made June incredibly important for Yates, who proved the rider who came third at last year’s Tour was ready to take things on again. He dominated the Tour de Suisse alongside teammate João Almeida, netting four stage wins and four 1-2 finishes between them. But Yates was the overall winner, holding onto his lead even after the final mountain TT despite Almeida’s proficiency in the discipline.
Yates' vast experience in the Tour de France, dating back to when he placed fourth in 2016 and took the best young rider's classification, already made him a solid bet for strong performances each July, but his third place and stage win last year gave a massive boost to his credibility as a contender. There were question marks about where he would fare this summer after his concussion but after his Suisse performance, the podium or top-five certainly looks possible again.
7. João Almeida
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: Debutant
- 2024 results: 2nd & 2 stage wins Tour de Suisse, 9th Volta a Catalunya, 2 wins
In our last update to this form ranking, this spot was previously taken by Almeida’s teammate Juan Ayuso as the 21-year-old Spanish star looked set to star on Debut as the Tour as part of Pogačar's super squad. But a crash for Ayuso at the Dauphiné and a resurgence to top form for Almeida has caused the switch.
Both will be part of Pogačar’s star-studded mountain train behind last man Yates but inspiration from the Brit’s podium finish in 2023 should leave them confident of achieving their own goals while working for the Slovenian.
This best suits Almeida purely because of how he races and specifically, how he tackles climbs. There’s never a big acceleration from the Portuguese rider but simply an ability to endure the suffering more. Almeida has made a name for himself not only as a Giro d’Italia podium finisher but as a great tempo climber, often riding his own pace and seemingly always finding a second wind up the hardest mountains.
Once his work is done and he hands over to Yates, expect to see him in the background, picking off those who drop under the pressure of his leader Pogačar, and working up to a solid GC position.
Almeida could be invaluable for Pogačar at the Tour after proving an excellent and selfless teammate for Yates in Switzerland as they managed a 1-2 on GC without any squabbles. He may have to empty himself on occasion, however, so that puts him lower down than other favourites.
He’s no slouch in time trials either having won the mountain TT at the Tour de Suisse, alongside a summit finish to Blatten. Ayuso similarly excels against the clock and the pair could very easily swap positions in Pogačar’s train. It's not out of the question that UAE could have four riders in the top 10 come the Tour’s conclusion in Nice.
8. Matteo Jorgenson
- Team: Visma-Lease a Bike
- Tour experience: 20th 2022, 5 stage top 10s
- 2024 results: 2nd Critérium du Dauphiné, 1st Dwars door Vlaanderen, 1st Paris-Nice, 2 wins
Matteo Jorgenson has undoubtedly been one of the breakthrough riders in 2024. Not to say he wasn’t already a big talent in the Classics but his GC stock has risen immensely since March, notching the win at Paris-Nice and backing it up with second place at the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month.
Now a three-week Grand Tour is a whole other beast but nothing Jorgenson has done in 2024 has suggested he won’t be able to cope with it. In fact, his versatility and consistency throughout both one-week races would actually point towards him being a great option for the Tour.
He finished in the top 10 of six of the seven contested stages at the Dauphiné, only crossing the line lower down on the opening sprint stage. Jorgenson then only narrowly missed out on the overall victory to Roglič but his duo of second places on the final two days showed how dangerous he is as a contender.
Vingegaard will of course be top of the hierarchy for Visma now that he is confirmed to take the start and Jorgenson will be more than willing to fold into a domestique role for the Dane. But if the defending champion doesn't make it back to competitive form quickly and falls away on GC, the American will be ready to step up.
He won't have compatriot and defending Vuelta champion Sepp Kuss for company at the Tour, who abandoned due to COVID-19, making him the only likely rider at Visma capable of stepping up in GC should Vingegaard not be able to sustain the tough three weeks. But Jorgenson’s strong sprint and prowess in the time trial make him a more than worthy second option should the Dutch team require him.
9. Egan Bernal
- Team: Ineos Grenadiers
- Tour experience: Winner 2019
- 2024 results: 4th Tour de Suisse, 3rd Volta a Catalunya, 9th Paris-Nice
Egan Bernal is one of four former Tour winners lining up at the Tour as he continues to work back up the level which secured him the yellow jersey in 2019, and the 2024 season has only been a story of success for the Colombian.
Two years on from his horror training crash which was almost life and career-ending, Bernal is a consistent top finisher at one-week WorldTour stages, taking 9th at Paris-Nice, 3rd at Catalunya, 10th at Romandie and 4th at Suisse in recent months.
His last two Grand Tour appearances saw him finish 36th and 55th as he was on that aforementioned journey back up to top shape but 2024 could finally be the year he returns to cycling’s biggest stage.
His most recent race at the Tour de Suisse saw him as the third-best climber at the race, only slipping down to fourth on the final stage due to a poor mountain time trial. This doesn't bode well for the Tour with, as mentioned, the duo of time trials likely to be a big difference maker. But his climbing legs look close to their peak.
Bernal is only so low down the favourites list due to the young Rodríguez looking like a better all-around package for now at Ineos. But he can employ all that experience gained from actually winning the Tour so he’s not to be sniffed at as a competitor.
Another good sign for Bernal that he was announced as co-leader with Rodríguez in Ineos' roster reveal, confident that the Colombian has stepped up enough to challenge for the top GC sports with the young Spaniard.
The chasing pack
Leading our list of honourable mentions is the fourth-place finisher from the 2023 Tour de France, Simon Yates (AlUla). Only low down because there just isn’t much form to go off. Yates has opted to train throughout May and June instead of racing, with his last appearance before the Tour being the Tour de Romandie, where he was 11th. He found career-best form taking a similar approach to take fourth behind twin Adam last season, though, so why not trust the process? It also may be his final Tour with the Australian squad with a rumoured move to Visma-Lease a Bike coming next year.
Alongside Rodríguez it's Enric Mas (Movistar) who represents Spain’s GC hopes at the Tour de France this year. He’s been his similar consistent yet unspectacular best in 2024 so far, with another top 10 result in his most recent race, the Tour de Suisse. But he was way off the pace of Yates and Almeida, some five minutes back after the eight days. It’s the time trials which will kill off Mas’s chances, however as a very solid Grand Tour rider - with seven top-six finished in the nine Grand Tours he’s completed - expect him to be there or thereabouts in France.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) should realistically be way higher on this list as a former Grand Tour winner and podium finisher at the Tour behind Vingegaard and Pogačar in 2021. However, his form simply hasn’t been there in 2024, with crashes and injuries stymieing his ability to lead EF as he was signed to do. His most recent appearance saw him abandon the recent Tour de Suisse after sustaining a face injury just. And it was a crash on stage 1 that ruled him out of last year’s Tour. But if he can get a clean run at the 21 stages, he’s a fierce and savvy GT competitor.
Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) could be higher ranked in a similar fashion to Yates and Almeida at UAE or Jorgenson at Visma. However, if their tactics from the Dauphiné were anything to go off, then the experienced GT pair will empty all of their reserves for Roglič. The Russian did hold onto a top-six finish after putting in incredible pulls for Roglič’s two stage wins but Hindley, the 2022 Giro winner, was done long before the summit finishes and fell to 20th overall by the end of the week.
More Spanish hopes to reach the podium come in the form of Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious). Bilbao finished sixth in last year’s race thanks to a stunning win from the break on stage 10. He’s also netted top 10s in each of his three last Grand Tours and has hit the right form just ahead of the race with second overall at the Tour of Slovenia. He’ll be aided by experienced Bahrain-Victorious teammates Jack Haig and Wout Poels, with talented young Colombian Santiago Buitrago offering a second GC option.
A new addition to the list of honourable mentions, and the biggest surprise on here, is Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). The 2023 breakthrough star went from Giro d’Italia breakaway hope to a realistic GC contender at the Critérium du Dauphiné, only losing out to Roglič and Jorgenson. Gee surprised himself on the hardest climbing days after scoring a maiden WorldTour win on stage 3, even pacing on the front for too long as he entered unknown territory. Gee not only has huge determination but also a massive TT engine on his side and for Gee, the best thing is that it could also be a first Grand Tour GC adventure without any pressure.
It feels slightly criminal having no French rider on the list of top contenders but that is simply the current landscape of French GC ambitions for the Tour de France. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) is perhaps the best bet having taken fourth at the Tour just two years ago and ninth last year, but he’s not shown that shape in a while. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 of a stage race this season and like many of those mentioned above, the time trial kilometres are a real killer for his hopes.
Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich PostNL) has shown better form in 2024 with second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and ninth at last month's Giro, however, it's now seven years since he scored back-to-back podiums at the Tour and those legs are no longer. It may also be his last Tour before retiring so a push for a final stage win or the King of the Mountains jersey may be a more desirable ambition.
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