Everybody does predictions before the start of every season in every sport, and of course, we who blather on about the NFL are no exception. Last year, Doug Farrar, Laurie Fitzpatrick, and Mark Schofield filled out the Touchdown Wire predictions sheet, and while the predictions made sense, we all whiffed on a few things — most notably, the Super Bowl teams.
Now, with Mark off to pastures anew (see you ’round, old friend), we’ve enlisted Luke Easterling, the shot-caller for both Bucs Wire and Draft Wire, and an estimable football mind in his own right. Luke and Doug also host the weekly “4-Down Territory” video, which you should definitely check out.
With all that said, let’s get to the predictions. Here’s how we see the 2022 NFL season shaking out — from division winners to Super Bowl champion to a plethora of individual awards.
AFC East winner
Doug Farrar: Buffalo Bills. This is an easy one. The Jets and Dolphins are on the upswing but not quite there, nobody knows what the heck is going on with New England’s offense, and the Bills have the NFL’s best roster. There are a handful of questions – power running outside of Josh Allen’s own efforts, offensive line quality, and the health of Tre’Davious White – but there are all kinds of reasons this team is the chalk pick to win Super Bowl LVII.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Without question the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East. Josh Allen should take this team deep into the playoffs. With depth on both sides of the ball but more importantly the additions of Von Miller, Rodger Saffold III and Kaiir Elam, the Bills have solidified their roster to make it the NFL’s best.
Luke Easterling: Buffalo Bills. They seem to be the consensus Super Bowl pick, and it’s easy to see why. Josh Allen will be in the running for MVP, and they have plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a bit of a question mark, but not enough to allow anyone else in the division to cause them any real concern. The other three teams could stack up in any order, and it wouldn’t be surprising, but none of them will come close to catching Buffalo this year.
AFC North winner
Doug Farrar: Baltimore Ravens. The 2021 Ravens finished the season 8-9 with literally the worst injury luck any team has had in this entire millennium. That has to regress to the mean in 2022, though the team’s recent mascot injury makes you wonder. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley appears to be ready to go, the three-safety group of Kyle Hamilton, Chuck Clark, and Marcus Williams will bedevil opposing quarterbacks, and as long as Lamar Jackson can figure out the blitz and continue to navigate the pocket, I have Baltimore just edging out the Bengals for the clamp on this division.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Cincinnati Bengals. Even though the Baltimore Ravens have their starters healthy and ready to go. It won’t be enough to beat out the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow is too good, and even with the loss of tight end C.J. Uzomah to the Jets, Cincinnati went out and acquired Hayden Hurst; just more depth for their receiver corps.
Luke Easterling: Baltimore Ravens. This will obviously be a tight battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, but even with the injuries they dealt with last year, Baltimore still finished just two games back. I’m expecting a massive season from Lamar Jackson in a contract year, and the additions the Ravens made elsewhere should take them to another level. They’re talented, well-coached, and should be much healthier this year, which equals a division title.
AFC South winner
Doug Farrar: Indianapolis Colts. The Colts haven’t made the playoffs since 2020, and they haven’t been a serious NFL threat since Andrew Luck retired. But the team’s quarterback purgatory through Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz may have come to an end with Matt Ryan. Ryan isn’t the quarterback he was in his 2016 MVP season anymore, but he can kill you in the presnap phase, his arm’s still good enough, and Frank Reich’s offense should give him all kinds of opportunities to shine. We talk about teams that are only a quarterback away, and we tend to ignore the Colts in that discussion. That could be a mistake now.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have been a quarterback away from the playoffs for the last few years. Matt Ryan is going to be the missing piece for them to easily take division. The Tennessee Titans traded away their best offensive weapon outside of Derrick Henry in A.J. Brown. The team that will give the Colts a run for the money are the Jacksonville Jaguars. They now have the head coach to keep them competitive but in the end. Matt Ryan will be the reason the Colts take the AFC South.
Luke Easterling: Indianapolis Colts. The Titans won’t fall off a cliff, but the Colts have the right pieces in place to take the title from them this year. Matt Ryan will be the right quarterback for Frank Reich’s offense, Jonathan Taylor will have another huge year, and the defense will continue to create tons of turnovers. Taking care of the football, controlling the clock, and winning the takeaway battle will send Indy to the top of this division.
AFC West winner
Doug Farrar: Los Angeles Chargers. The most brutally competitive division in pro football may see this come right down to the wire, and who would be surprised if it was the Broncos, Chiefs, or Raiders winning it all? But as much as Russell Wilson will add to Denver’s picture, and as much as Davante Adams makes the Raiders’ offense better, and as much as Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes… well, Justin Herbert is a cyborg, there are underrated great players all over this roster, and the massive issues this defense had stopping the run last season seem to have been fixed. This is going to be Herbert’s true breakout year for those who weren’t already with it, and Herbert will take his team right along with him.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Kansas City Chiefs. The AFC West is undoubtedly the best division in football, so at this point I could blindly throw a dart at this division and if who ever it lands on wins, we shouldn’t be surprised. That is how close it is. The reason why the Chiefs will win the division is because of their head coach, Andy Reid. He has the innovative play calling to get the new playmakers open, and Mahomes will have a more dynamic offense, even without Tyreek Hill.
Luke Easterling: Denver Broncos. This division should be the most hotly contested (and entertaining) to watch this season, and you could make a strong argument for any of the four teams to win. It’ll be close, but I’m giving the nod to the Broncos, who have all the pieces in place to soar to the top of the division now that Russell Wilson is at quarterback. We could easily see the best season of his career this year, and that could mean a division title, at the very least.
NFC East winner
Doug Farrar: Philadelphia Eagles. The only real question here is whether Jalen Hurts can become The Guy at quarterback. Other than that, general manager Howie Roseman has put his team in an enviable position to succeed. The trade for former Titans No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown gives Hurts a major new target, and Hurts already has DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as top-tier receivers. The defensive overhaul is the big story here. The Eagles got Georgia standouts Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean in the draft, and they had a masterful offseason with signings and trades, adding edge-rusher Hasson Reddick, cornerback James Bradberry, linebacker Kyzir White, and defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. If Hurts turns it on, this team could make it all the way to the Super Bowl.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Philadelphia Eagles. It would seem that if we take last year’s results into consideration for this year, the Dallas Cowboys would take this division. Unfortunately, they haven’t made any moves to improve their roster. They lost two of their best receivers in Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson Jr., and the offensive line and running backs are only getting older. The Eagles, on the other hand, have made moves to win this year. When it comes to the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders, their quarterbacks be their downfall.
Luke Easterling: Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys will obviously have something to say about it, but they feel like a team trying desperately to hang on, and the Eagles look like a team primed to leapfrog them. Jalen Hurts has the weapons and offensive line necessary to take the next step in his development, the defense added some key pieces at every level this offseason, and it should give them enough firepower on both sides of the ball to knock Dallas off the perch.
NFC North winner
Doug Farrar: Green Bay Packers. I think that the Vikings will have the division’s best offense, but there are too many questions about their defense. On the other hand, the Packers seem to have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, and the only real question here is who Aaron Rodgers is throwing to. The losses of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will hurt, and though Green Bay has the best running back tandem in the league in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, the passing game in flux could flummox Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur when the postseason comes around.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: This was a close one, but the Green Bay Packers will win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings have done everything that they needed to do in order to maximize efficiency for their offense. They got a new pass-first head coach in Kevin O’Connell who will help Justin Jefferson finally unlock his true elite potential. Unfortunately, their defense won’t be able to stop Aaron Rodgers.
Luke Easterling: Green Bay Packers. The Vikings will give them a run for their money, but I’m taking the team with the better defense and the still-superstar quarterback. This should be the Packers’ best defense in years, and regardless of who he’s throwing to, Aaron Rodgers is still going to make big plays and put up points. Don’t discount the fact that Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should help Rodgers keep the offense balanced, as well.
NFC South winner
Doug Farrar: New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers are the obvious pick here, and there’s nothing wrong with that idea. I’m not going to be the idiot telling Tom Brady he can’t get it done at age 45. This pick is more about the Saints, who may have the NFL’s best defense, and what can be done with a healthy Jameis Winston. Before Winston suffered a torn ACL halfway through the season, New Orleans ranked 13th in Passing DVOA and 18th in Offensive DVOA. Winston comes back healthy, and he has three targets he didn’t last season: Michael Thomas, who missed the 2021 campaign with an ankle injury, veteran possession receiver Jarvis Landry, and rookie Chris Olave.
Winston can still create explosive plays, but he is no longer the random quarterback who became the first in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season in 2019. The Saints look to have it all if a healthy Winston is leading the way.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is just no way we can go against Tom Brady here. Yes, it’s true that the New Orleans Saints continue to have the Bucs’ number, but can Jameis Winston lead them to first place in the division? I don’t think so. The team coming in second place will be the Carolina Panthers, but they just won’t have what it takes to get ahead of the greatest of all time. Brady will make his last year count.
Luke Easterling: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs still have to prove they can overcome their mental block when it comes to the Saints, but they got swept by New Orleans again last year, and still won the division by a comfortable margin. Yes, there are questions about the offensive line, and certain departures will certainly have an impact. But Tampa Bay also has plenty of new arrivals this time around, and they should offset the losses. Saints truthers have somehow turned Brady and the Bucs into underdogs with some of their preseason predictions, and we know how it usually goes for people who doubt the GOAT.
NFC West winner
Doug Farrar: San Francisco 49ers. There are questions about how quickly Trey Lance will become the quarterback the 49ers need him to be in his second NFL season, and the 2022 preseason showed good and bad moments. But it’s important to remember that this team was a couple of bad Jimmy Garoppolo plays away from beating the Rams in the NFC Championship game, they still have Garoppolo on the roster if Lance needs time before he’s all the way there, and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has things on lock.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: This was a tough one but we have to go with the Los Angeles Rams. Trey Lance will have what it takes to put the 49ers in the running to compete with the Rams but Aaron Donald will end up being too much for Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.
Luke Easterling: Los Angeles Rams. Picking the 49ers is understandable, but I’ll take the defending Super Bowl champs with the established veteran quarterback over the 49ers’ fairly balanced team with a huge question mark at the game’s most important position. Trey Lance could be a superstar, but we just don’t know yet, and the 49ers won in spite of Jimmy Garoppolo, not because of him. Even with the offseason losses they experienced, the Rams still have more than enough firepower on both sides of the ball to win this division.
Super Bowl LVII teams and winner
Doug Farrar: Los Angeles Chargers 34, San Francisco 49ers 27. I’ll pick the 49ers to overcome Trey Lance’s green hue (to whatever degree that’s applicable), but it’s the Chargers who will win it all at the end of the 2022 season. Why not the Bills? I think the Bills may be more complete as a team, but the Chargers have the running game the Bills perhaps don’t, their offensive line isn’t at the level of what Brandon Staley’s squad can put out there, and I think Staley’s eye toward defensive improvements (especially stopping the run) will push this team over the top.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Buffalo Bills 31, Los Angeles Rams 28. Since the Rams still have a lot of their offensive weapons and obviously the best defensive lineman in football (Aaron Donald), they will take their team to the championship once again. Unfortunately for them, Josh Allen will be out for a vengeance this year after losing to the clock last year. He won’t let that happen again, and with one of the best rosters in the entire NFL, nobody will be able to stop their offensive weapons with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox and yes, the rookie, James Cook.
Luke Easterling: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Buffalo Bills 31. I don’t know that the Bucs will even finish as the top seed in the NFC, but I do know that nobody will want to face the GOAT in the playoffs. The Bills should finish with the NFL’s best overall record in the regular season, but while the rest of the NFL universe would absolutely rage at Tom Brady ending Buffalo’s dream of a Lombardi Trophy, there’s no way I’m betting against Brady in that game. He’s been there a million times before, most of this Bucs team has been there before, and they know how to win that particular 60 minutes against a high-powered offense with a superstar quarterback (just ask Patrick Mahomes).
Super Bowl LVII MVP
Doug Farrar: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers. Last season, Herbert overcame the at-times too-conservative tendencies of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, and when the Chargers let Herbert loose, he unleashed hell all over the NFL. Few quarterbacks were better against two-deep coverage, few were better against man coverage, and few were better under pressure. Herbert is more than functionally mobile, he can make every freakshow throw in the playbook, and this is the year he really takes off.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. Last season the Bills were 13 seconds away from hosting the AFC championship. Josh Allen won’t let his defense come close to ruining this chance for him. Allen is going to be the main reason why they take the Lombardi Trophy, and he’ll be the clear front runner for Super Bowl LVII MVP.
Luke Easterling: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When the Bucs beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, the MVP should have gone to the entire Tampa Bay defense, or at least a worthy representative (Shaq Barrett, Devin White, Lavonte David). But we all know this has become a quarterback award, whether they deserve it or not. If Brady takes the Bucs back to the top of the mountain again this year, he’ll win the MVP again, too.
NFL Most Valuable Player
Doug Farrar: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson may not be the best quarterbacks in the AFC in 2022 – Allen has been climbing up the charts, and while I don’t think the Bills will wind up in the Super Bowl this season, that’s more about other issues. We’re going to be talking about Justin Herbert all season long, I think Patrick 1 watchMahomes will thrive in a somewhat new-look offense, and Russell Wilson will finally be able to cook… but when you look as Allen’s passing elan, and add his thermonuclear rushing ability, it’s hard to name a quarterback who is more valuable to his team.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers. The cautious offensive play-calling last year was just that, last year. Herbert is going to finally knock the top off and use his arm and run away with the MVP. Everyone has been saying this every year, but I think this year is his year!
Luke Easterling: Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos. I predicted Wilson to lead the Broncos to an AFC West title, taking them from last place in 2021 to the top of the league’s toughest division in 2022. If he does that, it’ll be hard to argue that anyone else in the league was more vital to their team’s success than Wilson.
Offensive Player of the Year
Doug Farrar: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs. The AFC is loaded with great quarterbacks, as we have discussed. So, splitting them up into different categories of excellence is a hero’s errand. I think Mahomes will be the offensive player of the year if he figures out how to deal with two-deep and drop-eight coverage, and if he leans into a passing game that promotes consistency over the occasional explosive play – and far too many busts among those booms.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings. With pass-first head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are going to see another side of Justin Jefferson. Yes, he’s has had a 1,400-yard season and an 1,600-yard season so far, but this year, Jefferson is going to be able to take it to another level as he runs away with the OPOY.
Luke Easterling: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens. Jackson is back to full strength, and he’s in a contract year. He’s betting on himself, like he always does, and I think we’ll see another MVP-caliber year from him. 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards shouldn’t be out of the question.
Defensive Player of the Year
Doug Farrar: Aaron Donald, DI, Los Angeles Rams. Donald was already one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history, and 2021 might have been his best season to date – he was certainly the best player in the league last season, Super Bowl win or not. There’s no reason to think that he won’t come back and do it all over again, because in the NFL today, there is Aaron Donald, and there is everybody else.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys The only reason Parsons didn’t get Defensive Player of the Year last year was because he was a rookie. This year, we should see him take his production to another level as the game continues to slow down. His development should be scary to watch.
Luke Easterling: Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys. Parsons was the unanimous Defensive Rookie of the Year last year, and a finalist for this award. This time around, he’ll knock off Aaron Donald and take it home. It might be the first of many, too.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Doug Farrar: Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans. I had Pierce as my top back in this draft class, and he did everything possible in the preseason to validate the belief of anybody who thought the same. Pierce may not have demonic third-level breakaway speed, but he has everything else you need in a starting running back. Contact balance, gap certainty, short-area elusiveness – there isn’t a rookie back who brings up all the scouting buzzwords for the position like Pierce does. A running back hasn’t won this award since Saquon Barkkley did it in 2018, but Pierce, much like Javonte Williams did for the Broncos last season, has the tools to go all Beast Mode on the NFL.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers. As the Steelers work through the kinks of having a new quarterback for the first time since 2004, they will have the joy of working with a rookie receiver who I’m predicting to be a future Pro Bowler. Pickens has already made some impressive catches in preseason and he should go on to be one of Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett’s main targets.
Luke Easterling: Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans. Everyone knows that Pierce’s landing spot has plenty to do with his opportunity for success this year, but he’s also a stellar prospect that had no business still being on the board in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. Pierce was our No. 2 running back in this year’s class at Draft Wire, and he’s got all the tools to rack up a ton of yards and touchdowns in his rookie season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Doug Farrar: Kyle Hamilton, DB, Baltimore Ravens. Hamilton was the top-ranked player in Touchdown Wire’s top 50 2022 prospects list, so why wouldn’t I put him here, especially since new Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has said that the three-safety group of Hamilron, Chuck Clark, and Marcus Williams will be the spine of his defense? Hamilton can play everywhere from the box to outside cornerback, Macdonald did an amazing job of moving Michigan’s defensive backs around in 2021, and when you have a unicorn like Hamilton in a defense playing to his strengths, what’s not to like?
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Travon Walker, OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars. With a great start to Waslker’s preseason, it was clear that Jaguars GM Trent Baalke got this pick right. Walker is going to be a dominant force from the line and should have no problem racking up at least 10 sacks this season. With Josh Allen on the other side to help him out, Walker will see high-level production and will surpass expectations — even as a first overall pick.
Luke Easterling: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, New York Giants. Assuming the knee injury he sustained in the preseason isn’t serious, Thibodeaux has all the potential to be a dominant pass rusher in the NFL. He plays for a big-market team, which never hurts when it comes to winning league awards. If he lives up to the hype, he’ll be a worthy candidate for this year’s top defensive rookie.
Comeback Player of the Year
Doug Farrar: Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers. I would love for Christian McCaffrey to win this award, because it would mean that he played in a lot more than the 10 games he’s managed over the last two seasons. But I’m a little balky about any running back with his recent injury history, and I think that McCaffrey’s new quarterback has a better shot at returning with a vengeance from an injury-ruined season. Mayfield was a top-12 NFL quarterback for the Browns in 2020, and then, he tried to make it through the 2021 season with his arm hanging by a string. Other injuries limited his mobility, and everything circled the drain.
If head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo can tweak the passing game to focus on what Mayfield does best (something Cleveland’s coaching staff struggled to do), Mayfield could make the Browns look foolish for throwing him away. Not that the Browns need any help looking foolish with their quarterback decisions…
And hey – if McCaffrey is healthy this season, that’s just one more advantage for Mayfield.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants. There have only three running backs in history that reached the 2,000 yards from scrimmage mark in their rookie seasons:, Eric Dickerson, Edgeriin James, and Barkley. That’s two Hall of Famers, and Barkley, whose career is to be determined to a great degree. Barkley’s injuries have yet to allow him to take that next step. This is the year that jumpstarts his career once again and he shows the world why he deserves to be in the conversation with the greats.
Luke Easterling: Baker Mayfield, QB, Carolina Panthers. Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey appear to be the more popular picks around the NFL world, but I’m betting on a healthy Mayfield having a stellar season in Carolina. He’s got plenty of talented weapons, and though the offensive line is still a question mark, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him post the best statistical season of his career, and lead the Panthers to a better record than many might expect.
Head Coach of the Year
Doug Farrar: Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers. Staley, via mentor Vic Fangio, has set the template for modern defense in the NFL, and in Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, he now has two new toys to play with on that side of the ball. The Chargers seem to have done enough to overcome 2021’s fatal flaw (stopping the run), and I’ve already thrown enough love at Justin Herbert. It’ll be the offense that pushes this defensive mastermind to the top of the league.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings. O’Connell was brought in to take the Vikings offense to the next level. That is exactly what he will do as he keeps the NFC North competitive.
Luke Easterling: Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos. I’m obviously all-in on the Broncos this year, from predicting them to win the NFL’s toughest division, to Russell Wilson winning this year’s MVP award. If those things happen, it’s hard to imagine anyone more deserving of this award than Hackett in his first season.
Assistant Coach of the Year
Doug Farrar: DeMeco Ryans, defensive coordinator, San Francisco 49ers. Ryans, the former Texans and Eagles linebacker, rose from quality control to linebackers coach to defensive coordinator for the 49ers, got some nascent looks as a head coach candidate after his first season running San Francisco’s defense, and there’s a lot of merit to that. The 49ers finished seventh in Defensive DVOA last season, and they did so without giving you one specific schematic type.
The 49ers played about as much man as they did zone, they played about as much single-high as two-high, and they were just as good throwing quarters coverage at opposing quarterbacks as they were just about anything else. That has a lot do with Ryans coming into that position and establishing a productive dialogue with his players to make everything work, in just about every concept. You can expect that to continue in 2022.
Laurie Fitzpatrick: Shane Steichen, offensive coordinator, Philadelphia Eagles. Last year, Nick Sirianni and Steichen shared the play-calling responsibility in the second half od last season. When that happened Jalen Hurts stopped struggling as much. Now this year with Sirianni stepping down from play calling permanently, Steichen should take the Eagles to the next level and win himself ACOY.
Luke Easterling: Raheem Morris, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Rams. There’s absolutely no good reason why Morris is still an assistant coach, considering what he’s done with this defense during his tenure in Los Angeles. He’s more than deserving of another shot to be an NFL head coach, but until that happens, the Rams will be happy to take advantage of his presence.
