Rural voters are becoming increasingly “politically homeless”, ministers have been warned, as polling suggests that support for the Conservatives in the countryside has rapidly declined.
Labour is the main beneficiary but must “up its game” to see the change translate into votes at the next general election, said Jonathan Roberts, the director of external affairs at the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).
Fears about a drop-off in support across traditionally Tory-leaning rural areas have been compounded by a string of byelection losses, most recently in Selby and Ainsty, the North Yorkshire seat in which Labour overturned a mammoth Conservative majority.
Concerns that rural communities have been neglected by Westminster stretch back much further and are the fault of governments of all colours, argued Roberts.
“It’s very difficult for rural people to fully understand who is championing way of life,” he said. “There hasn’t been a robust and ambitious plan to grow the rural economy, and create good jobs and strengthen those communities and allow rural businesses to grow.”
Polling conducted by Survation found that support for the Conservatives among voters in the 100 most rural constituencies had dropped by 18 points to 41% compared with the 2019 general election. The party narrowly stayed out in front of Labour, whose support rose by 16 points to 35%. The Liberal Democrats fell by three points to sit on 13%.
The cost of living, a lack of growth and building more homes were among the most pressing issues highlighted by those surveyed.
Too often, Roberts said, the countryside is viewed “a place for people to go and to visit, rather than a fundamentally important part of our society and economy”.
The Lib Dems have performed well at byelections in rural seats such as Tiverton and Honiton, Somerton and Frome, and North Shropshire, but Roberts argued that at a general election voters are “less likely to cast their vote as a protest and looking at more seriously who is likely to form the next government”.
The CLA, which represents 28,000 rural businesses across England and Wales, fears that the divide between cities and the countryside has been widening. If closed, the productivity gap in the rural economy could raise the economic output of England alone by £43bn, according to the group.
A 28-page strategy for “unleashing rural opportunity” was published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in June.
Roberts acknowledged that the government had shown “some signs of responding” to the CLA’s concerns. But he cautioned: “There’s a question as to whether that’s going to be a little bit too late.”
A more longstanding failure by multiple governments to unlock the potential of the rural economy “has led to a political homelessness of many people in rural areas”, he said.
Jim McMahon, the shadow environment secretary, is among those Labour sources have suggested could be moved in a reshuffle. Roberts also hinted at dissatisfaction with his performance, saying that support for Labour among rural voters in the polls “belies the effort that they’re making to engage with rural communities”.
He added: “I think where the Labour party does need to up its game is on engagement with rural communities.”
