The new Tory deputy party chair, Lee Anderson, made headlines this morning for his views on the death penalty and after clashing with a BBC radio presenter over accusations of dishonesty. But it was the decision taken off-stage by a fellow red wall MP that tells us far more about the future of the Conservatives.
Jo Gideon only won her Stoke-on-Trent seat in 2019, defeating Labour’s Gareth Snell. But with a majority of fewer than 1,000 votes, and Snell projected to regain the seat by a swingometer-breaking margin, Gideon has decided to stand down at the next election.
That makes her I think the 18th Conservative MP to announce they will not be running in 2024. Clearly, all will have done so for their own reasons and are at different stages of their lives. Sajid Javid has enjoyed a long cabinet career while Matt Hancock is, well, sui generis.
But it is the retirement of younger or first-time members, such as Gideon or Dehenna Davison in Bishop Auckland, that will worry Conservative Central Office.
Now, large numbers of MPs standing down is not unusual. Sky News’ Isla Glaister has run the numbers, and she found that between 1979 and 2019, an average of 85 MPs across all parties stood down at each election. Two outliers were 2010 – with 149 not running, and 1997, at 117. You’ll notice those elections have something in common – the long-standing governing party went on to lose.
The polls are looking continuously bad for the Tories. Indeed, one this week found that Sunak would wouldn’t even return as Leader of the Opposition, which would go to the Westminster head of the SNP, with the Tories only the third largest party. Buckets of salt and the vagaries of first-past-the-post aside, that is bad.
Of course, polls are about the future. Things like retirements, MPs crossing the floor and calamitous by-elections are useful metrics precisely because they have actually happened.
Now might be a relevant time to admit that I possess perhaps the world’s most useless party trick, one that grows less relevant with each passing year. Give me the face and I can name every MP from the 2010-15 Parliament. For context, it was my first job, and on reflection I think it may have been an initiation dare. But anyone unfortunate enough to have amassed similar knowledge for the 2019-24 parliament is likely to join me in this purgatory.
Elsewhere in the paper, the Church of England synod has voted in favour of offering blessings to same-sex couples. However, its position on gay marriage remains unchanged.
In the comment pages, Andy Burnham says that tinkering with departmental names isn’t enough – Whitehall must devolve power. Meanwhile, when is the last time you laughed? (and minor chuckles don’t count) Katie Strick begs you to voice-note your BFFs next time something makes you giggle.
And finally, prepare to have strong opinions. For World Pizza Day, we deliver our thoughts on the best slices in the capital.
