When news broke that Boris Johnson – along with his chancellor – had been handed a fixed-penalty notice for breaching Covid rules during lockdown, the prime minister’s defenders quickly organised themselves. Tory MPs lined up to publicly offer their support – suggesting that the war in Ukraine had shown there were bigger issues to focus on. That group even included some unlikely cheerleaders such as Roger Gale, a Tory backbencher who had previously called for Johnson to go over the issue.
But while more than 70 MPs at the last count have publicly backed Johnson, the concern in No 10 and the whips’ office relates to the 200 or so Tory MPs who are silent at present. While some are trying to make the most of the Easter recess – “colleagues want a break” – the majority are still coming to a decision. “Most MPs are waiting to see whether there are more fines and what the public reaction is,” says a member of the government. “No one thinks there will be 54 letters going in over the next few days.”
Even Johnson’s internal critics admit he is in a much better place to fight for his survival than he was two months ago. While the official line from Conservative campaign headquarters to MPs is to say the war in Ukraine means now is not the time to even consider a Tory leadership contest, it’s only one of several factors in MPs’ calculations.
The new No 10 team – which is more MP-focused – has been reaching out to the party in recent weeks and has had some success in boosting morale. Meanwhile, the cost of living crisis, rather than parties, has been the issue dominating MPs’ mailboxes in recent weeks. But, perhaps most importantly, Rishi Sunak’s fall from grace means that there is no obvious successor to Johnson and a leadership contest looks less appealing.
Even before he was issued with a fine, the chancellor was being written off by MPs as a leadership contender in any immediate contest. Stories about his use of a green card while in No 11 and his wife’s non-dom tax status have served as red flags in the party – suggesting he is politically naive. “He looks like a risky bet now,” says one Tory MP.
This is important, because until this point he was viewed as the favourite in any Tory leadership contest. “The most likely contender now is Liz Truss. That’s a problem,” says one member of the 2019 intake who has failed to be caught up in a bout of Truss-mania.
There were some nerves in government on Tuesday over the time Sunak took to apologise and confirm that he would stay in place rather than resign. While that decision has helped to stabilise Johnson’s position in the short term, few MPs believe the situation is sustainable. “The fact that Rishi has also got a fine makes the situation worse,” says a senior Tory. “You can’t have the two top members of government having been found to have broken the rules.”
But just because no one really wants a leadership crisis doesn’t mean one will be avoided. “Very few MPs want one right now but the party is in a miserable place,” says a member of the government. One group chat made up of One Nation Tories has been pondering if they’ll ever be able to recover the Conservative brand – and the consensus has been negative.
Even the most passionate defences of Johnson point to trouble ahead. The prime minister’s supporters have been quick to speak dismissively of the latest batch of fines – questioning the seriousness of the event they relate to, which involved birthday cake in working hours.
But here’s the issue: if Sunak is issued with a fine for turning up early to a meeting and briefly attending an event involving cake, what does that mean for the other events that Johnson is alleged to have attended? This includes the infamous “bring your own booze” bash in the Downing Street garden. There’s also the eventual publication of Sue Gray’s report, which is expected to be heavily critical of Johnson.
“If he receives more fines,” says a former political colleague of Johnson’s, “he is going to have to explain that he didn’t understand the rules on multiple occasions.”
Already Tory MPs are growing nervous that despite the prime minister’s changed circumstances, the situation has not lost its political potency. One MP says they received only a handful of emails from constituents about Sunak’s wife’s non-dom status but since the fines were announced, there have already been hundreds of messages.
Combine that with a bad result in the upcoming local elections, and we can expect recriminations to begin. For Tory MPs, the saga is far from over.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
