Liz Truss is on course to become Britain's next Prime Minister, according to a new poll of Tory members.
Some 49% of respondents to a YouGov poll said they would back the Foreign Secretary, while 31% chose Rishi Sunak.
It came as Ms Truss promised an emergency budget to reverse the national insurance hike immediately under her proposals to drive growth.
Read more: Rishi Sunak criticised after citing Darlington investment during discussion on Scotland
The financial plans of the final candidates for prime minister were growing ever more divided as they battled for the votes of the Tory membership required to win the race for Number 10.
Robert Joyce, the deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank, put Ms Truss’s tax cuts at “more than £30 billion per year – and possibly considerably more”.
The plans “mean higher borrowing or less public spending, or some combination”, he said, though their impact remains unclear because Ms Truss’s plans are “yet to be fleshed out”.
“Without spending reductions, the tax promises would likely lead to the current fiscal rules being broken, and Ms Truss has hinted that the fiscal rules may change,” Mr Joyce added.
But Ms Truss defended her plans to scrap the scheduled corporation tax rise and suspend green levies on energy bills as “not a gamble”.
“My plans do not exceed the headroom. I’m very clear that they are about £30 billion worth of costings, and those are affordable within our current headroom,” she told broadcasters during a visit to Peterborough.
“But what is not affordable is putting up taxes, choking off growth, and ending up in a much worse position.”
In his pitch to Conservative members after MPs selected the final two candidates, Mr Sunak argued that only he is capable of beating Labour in a general election.
But Ms Truss hit back by saying the Tories would struggle to win under the current economic policy written by Mr Sunak when he was in No 11.
Ms Truss said: “I think the problem is that if we continue with our current economic policy, which is forecast to lead to a recession, it will be very hard for Conservatives to win an election.
“We are in economic difficulty, the whole world is in economic difficulty. It’s not time for business as usual.”
Mr Sunak has vowed not to cut taxes until the soaring rates of inflation are under control, fearing that such a move could make the crisis worse.
It emerged on Thursday that he does not believe he would be able to cut personal taxes until at least autumn 2023, a view that is likely to further anger the Tory right.
The IFS noted that his plans see tax heading towards its highest sustained level in 70 years.
Mr Sunak insisted he was a “Thatcherite” as he sought to address the concerns of Tory members that he backed a high-tax, large state approach.
Some fear that Mr Sunak may have blown his chances by resigning as chancellor, in a move that has angered some Conservatives by helping bring about Boris Johnson’s downfall.
Over the next month, Ms Truss and Mr Sunak will embark on a tour the UK, taking part in 12 hustings for the Tory members.
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