Kemi Badenoch is set to easily beat Robert Jenrick in the race to be the next Tory leader, according to a new survey.
The survey of Tory party members put ex-Business Secretary Ms Badenoch 24 points ahead of her rival.
Despite the grim finding for his campaign, Mr Jenrick sought to claim that the contest was still “neck and neck”.
The former Home Office minister said that there was “everything to fight for” a week before the results of the election are announced on November 2.
However, the survey of 828 party members carried out by the Conservative Home blog between October 23 and 24 suggested Ms Badenoch had maintained her lead over Mr Jenrick, with 55 points to his 31.
As he sought to woo more party members, Mr Jenrick announced in a speech in central London, that he would seek to spend 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence by the middle of the second parliament under a Tory government if he were elected leader.
There's everything to fight for
The leadership hopeful has sought to draw a dividing line between himself and Ms Badenoch over the frontrunner’s focus on “principles” over policy.
Ms Badenoch has argued the Tories “have time” to reflect on what their manifesto should like come the next general election and “don’t need to rush” into setting out a detailed platform.
Asked on Friday whether his campaign was over, the former immigration minister said: “Absolutely not. This is neck and neck.
“That’s a survey, not a poll. The last poll that we had was done by YouGov several weeks ago, and showed it was absolutely neck and neck, the tightest leadership race that we’ve had for many years.”
Mr Jenrick had used his speech at the Henry Jackson Society to set out his approach to defence, saying the UK and Nato appear “dangerously exposed”.
Taking a hawkish stance on China, he warned the Government “must wake up to the next big threat on the horizon” posed by Beijing, and branded the treatment of the Uighurs by the country’s government a “genocide” – a term the Labour administration has resisted using since taking office.
He said spending 3% of GDP on defence should be the new standard for the military bloc, expected of all member states, and Britain should be “leading by the force of our example”.
This would be funded by cuts to welfare and foreign aid rather than taxation, Mr Jenrick claimed.
Asked how quickly he would aim to reach the 3% target as prime minister, he said: “I want to see us get to 2.5% immediately under the next Conservative government, and then reach 3% by the middle of the next parliament. I think that’s a reasonable, realistic task.”
The armed forces shrank under the previous Tory administration, reaching their smallest size since the 1800s.
Mr Jenrick accused the Labour Government of choosing to “delay” important decisions until at least the spring of next year by failing to set out a timetable for when it wants to reach the 2.5% of GDP spending ambition for defence.
Downing Street has said the Government would hit the target “as soon as possible”.
The Tory leadership ballot is due to close on October 31 and the winner will be confirmed on November 2.
