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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Nadeem Badshah(now), Andrew Sparrow (earlier)

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss reach final two of Tory leadership race – as it happened

Boris Johnson Penny Mordaunt Liz Truss ​​Rishi Sunak Tom Tugendhat

Thanks for following today’s developments. We are closing the blog now, you can read all our UK politics coverage here.

A summary of today's developments

  • Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are in the final ballot of Tory members to choose the next the next prime minister. Sunak got 137 votes, Truss got 113 with Penny Mordaunt eliminated after getting 105. Labour said Sunak and Truss are both “continuity candidates” and Boris Johnson stooges in a statement on behalf of the party by Conor McGinn, a shadow Cabinet Office minister.
  • Boris Johnson declared “Mission largely accomplished, for now,” as he signed off his last Prime Minister’s Questions. His final words before departing were “hasta la vista baby” from the Terminator films. He left the House of Commons chamber to applause and a standing ovation from his own MPs, although his predecessor Theresa May did not join in with the clapping.
  • A third cabinet minister pulled out of an appearance before a House of Commons committee at short notice. Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng had been due to answer questions this afternoon from the environmental audit committee on accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and securing energy supplies.But Kwarteng wrote to the committee’s chairman, Philip Dunne, this morning to say he could no longer attend and offered to rearrange for a date in September after MPs return from their summer recess.
  • Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, has agreed to launch a leak inquiry into the leak of government documents to the Sunday Times that were used to as the basis for a story undermining Penny Mordaunt’s claim that she never backed self-identification for trans people when she was equalities minister. The revelations were damaging to Mordaunt’s campaign for the Tory leadership.
  • Ed Miliband, the shadow climate change secretary, described Rishi Sunak’s promise to maintain the ban on new onshore windfarms as “economic illiteracy”.

A handout photograph released by the UK Parliament shows Britain’s former Prime Miinister Theresa May (Top R) listening as Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during his final Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) at the House of Commons.
Theresa May (top right) listening as Boris Johnson speaks during his final PMQs at the House of Commons. Photograph: Andy Bailey/UK Parliament/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

A handout photograph released by the UK Parliament shows Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaking during his final Prime Minister’s Questions at the House of Commons.
A handout photograph released by the UK Parliament shows prime minister Boris Johnson speaking during his final PMQs at the House of Commons. Photograph: Andy Bailey/UK Parliament/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

John Crace’s political sketch on Boris Johnson’s final PMQS:

Tobias Ellwood has again had the Tory whip removed after Conservative MPs cast their final ballots in the leadership contest.

A whips’ office spokeswoman said: “Tobias Ellwood MP has had the Conservative whip suspended.”

On Tuesday, Ellwood had the whip removed after he failed to take part in the confidence vote in the government.

Updated

The Labour MP Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish secretary, said that while Boris Johnson was leaving, whoever the next Tory leader was had been “complicit in defending his shameful and corrupt behaviour”.

“The people of this country will not forget that Tory MPs lined up time and time again to excuse the behaviour of a man caught lying and partying while the country was in lockdown, and defending sexual predators.

“They clapped him out,” he said.

Douglas Ross has meanwhile pledged to work with whoever wins the keys to No 10, with the Scottish Conservative leader having described both candidates as “fully up to the task of being our next prime minister”.

Updated

The Tory leadership candidate Liz Truss has told Channel 4 News she is “entirely focused on a positive campaign” and plans to cut taxes if she beats Rishi Sunak to become the next prime minister.

She added: “I can hit the ground running, I can get things done.”

Updated

Political analyst Patrick Flynn believes tactical voting took place in the latest round of Conservative voting among MPs.

Rishi Sunak v Liz Truss: all you need to know about the final two prime minister contenders.

Plans have been announced to overhaul Border Force, as an independent review found it was performing at a “suboptimal level” and stretching its resources in an “unsustainable and highly inefficient way”.

The independent review, commissioned by the home secretary, Priti Patel, to see how well it may respond to future challenges, said that, despite a “dedicated, capable workforce”, the agency seemed to be “less than the sum of its parts with significant systemic challenges”.

The review, by the former Australian immigration minister Alexander Downer, said: “Overall, my impression of Border Force is an organisation which is performing at a suboptimal level.

“It appears to be struggling to get out of a cycle of crisis management, reacting to the last challenge and bracing itself for the next, regardless of how predictable the next challenge may be.

“Although Border Force is largely delivering what is required of it on a day-to-day basis, it does so by stretching its resources in an unsustainable and highly inefficient way.”

Updated

The first of the 12 official public hustings organised by the Conservative party in the leadership contest has been set for July 28 in Leeds, before Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak tour the UK for questioning.

A hustings for the Conservative Councillors’ Association, organised separately and believed to be taking place behind closed doors, is expected to take place on Thursday.

Conservative members are expected to receive postal ballots by 5 August, with the ballot shutting at 5pm on 2 September ahead of the final announcement.

The candidates will also attend hustings in Exeter, Eastbourne, Northern Ireland, Manchester and London during their tour.

Updated

In two of the three Conservative leadership elections that got as far as a ballot of party members in recent decades, the candidate who won the most votes among MPs went on to win the members’ vote.

The most recent example was in 2019, when the final ballot of MPs ended with Boris Johnson in front on 160 votes (51% of the total), while Jeremy Hunt won 77 (25%) and Michael Gove won 75 (24%).

There was a similar pattern in 2005, where David Cameron came top of the final ballot of MPs with 90 votes (45%), followed by David Davis on 57 (29%) and Liam Fox on 51 (26%).

The exception came in 2001, when Ken Clarke won the most votes among MPs but then lost the ballot of members to Iain Duncan Smith.

The 2001 contest was notable for the close result of the final MPs ballot, in which Clarke won 59 votes (36%), Duncan Smith 54 (33%) and Michael Portillo 53 (32%).

But Duncan Smith then won the members’ vote by 61% to Clarke’s 39%.

Updated

Sir Iain Duncan Smith believes it would have been a “dereliction of duty” for foreign secretary Liz Truss, who he is backing for the Tory leadership, to resign from Boris Johnson’s government.

Asked if she is the continuity candidate, the former Tory leader told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme: “No, Liz Truss is on her own record and what she wants to do, the truth is when you use words like ‘continuity’ they don’t really mean a huge amount.

“Liz Truss stayed in the cabinet, she had a very important job, it was foreign secretary, we’ve got a war going on in Ukraine, and a serious crisis, it would’ve been a dereliction of duty for her to have abandoned it and then promptly decided to get rid of him.

“The truth is she was straightforward and loyal on that, and I think that was the right way to be.”

Updated

Sky News will host a live televised head-to-head debate between the final two candidates vying to be the next leader of the Conservative Party at 8pm on 4 August.

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have both confirmed they will take part in the one-hour debate hosted by Kay Burley, with questions from a live studio audience.

This will be a key juncture in the race, as Conservative party members receive their ballot papers the same week.

Updated

Back to where we started this morning, and here is more reaction to Rishi Sunak’s announcement that he will maintain the ban on new onshore windfarms if he becomes PM. (See 9.17am.)

This is from the Green MP Caroline Lucas.

This is from Simon Evans from CarbonBrief.

And this is from the veteran environment journalist Geoffrey Lean.

He means electing, not decking, obviously. Tory infighting hasn’t got that bad yet.

That’s all from me for today. My colleague Nadeem Badshah is now taking over.

Labour says Sunak and Truss are both 'continuity candidates' and Johnson 'stooges'

Labour says Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are both “continuity candidates” and Boris Johnson stooges. In a statement on behalf of the party Conor McGinn, a shadow Cabinet Office minister, said:

The choice to be the next Tory leader is down to the two continuity candidates. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are stooges of the Johnson administration whose fingerprints are all over the state the country finds itself in today.

Both are now desperately trying to distance themselves from the Tory record of the last 12 years. But both have backed every decision, including every one of Boris Johnson’s 15 tax rises.

Rather than plans to tackle the Tory cost-of-living crisis or grow Britain’s economy, they are simply offering the fantasy economics of unfunded giveaways. Neither offers working people anything except more of the same.

The bookmakers have Liz Truss as the favourite to win the contest. Ladbrokes has Truss’s odds at 4/7, and Rishi Sunak at 11/8. Paddy Power has Truss at 8/15, and Sunak at 5/4. And Smarkets says the odds give Truss an implied 60% chance of winning.

Patrick English from YouGov says his firm’s research suggests positive personality traits, followed by support for conventional Conservatism, will count the most when Tory members choose a new leader.

Kwasi Kwarteng becomes third cabinet minister to duck appearance before parliamentary committee

A third cabinet minister has pulled out of an appearance before a House of Commons committee at short notice, PA Media reports. PA says:

Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng had been due to answer questions this afternoon from the environmental audit committee on accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and securing energy supplies.

But Kwarteng wrote to the committee’s chairman, Philip Dunne, this morning to say he could no longer attend.

The minister gave no reason for pulling out, but offered to rearrange for a date in September, after MPs return from their summer recess.

Announcing Kwarteng’s decision, the committee tweeted: “He gives no explanation nor apology. This is not the way for senior ministers to treat scrutiny.”

The government has already been accused of attempting to avoid scrutiny since Boris Johnson resigned as Conservative leader after two other cabinet ministers pulled out of select committee appearances.

Home secretary Priti Patel pulled out of an appearance before the home affairs committee on 13 July, claiming “recent changes in government” meant she could no longer attend.

The next day, justice secretary Dominic Raab cancelled his session with the joint committee on human rights, which was scheduled to question him on plans to replace the Human Rights Act with a bill of rights.

Updated

Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, has rejected claims his campaign lent votes to another candidate to force a rival out of the contest. Asked if he had been doing this, he replied:

Absolutely not. As you can see from the results that have just been declared, this has been a really close contest. And I’m really humbled that I’ve made it to the next stage. I’m grateful to all my colleagues for their support.

He dismissed suggestions that the campaign had been too negative. Asked if there had been too many blue-on-blue attacks, he replied:

What we’ve seen is actually a debate about ideas, which is very healthy. And it’s good for us to debate ideas to make sure that we get the policies right for the country.

And he restated his claim that only he could beat Labour. He said:

The question now for our members is who is the best person to defeat Keir Starmer and the Labour party at the next election. I believe I am the only candidate who can do that.

Rishi Sunak in parliament this afternoon.
Rishi Sunak in parliament this afternoon. Photograph: Rob Pinney/Getty Images

Updated

Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser, has posted an extract from his Substack blog on Twitter explaining why he thinks Liz Truss is so unsuitable to be PM – and why he thinks Boris Johnson supporters her.

Updated

How Tory members would vote now in Sunak/Truss contest, according to polling

According to a YouGov poll of Conservative party members yesterday, Liz Truss would beat Rishi Sunak by 54% to 35%.

Polling of Tory members
Polling of Tory members Photograph: YouGov

In the past YouGov polls of party members have provided a reasonably good guide to the outcome of internal elections. But these figures just reflect opinion in the party now (the fieldwork was carried out on Monday and Tuesday). Opinion can shift quickly (only a week ago party members thought Penny Mordaunt would make the best leader), although the Truss/Sunak figures have not shifted much over the past week. A week ago, YouGov polling had Truss beating Sunak by 59% to 35%.

The ConservativeHome website has its own survey of Tory members and it has been conducted a similar exercise. On Sunday it published figures also showing Truss beating Sunak, but by a much tighter margin, 49% to 42%. Unlike YouGov, their figures also showed the gap closing significantly; a week previously, Truss was leading by 51% to to 34%.

Updated

Sunak claims he can beat Starmer but Truss can't

Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, has released a video saying that he is “the only candidate” in the contest now who can beat Keir Starmer at the next election.

Updated

Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser, has just posted this about Liz Truss:

Updated

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has also released a message thanking her supporters. She goes on:

I would also like to pay tribute to every candidate who stood for the leadership. Each of them has contributed enormously to the Conservative party and to public life.

I am excited to now take to the country to make the case to the Conservative party about my bold new economic plan that will cut taxes, grow our economy and unleash the potential of everyone in our United Kingdom.

As prime minister I would hit the ground running from day one, unite the party and govern in line with Conservative values.

I am incredibly proud to be a part of the Conservative and Unionist party and am excited to spend the next few weeks proving to all of our brilliant members exactly why I am the right person to lead it, and our great nation.

Updated

Penny Mordaunt, the international trade minister who has just been knocked out of the Tory leadership contest, has released a message thanking her supporters and calling for party unity. She said:

I also want to congratulate both Rishi and Liz in getting through to the next stage. I pay tribute to anyone who puts themselves forward for such a demanding role. Politics isn’t easy. It can be a divisive and difficult place. We must all now work together to unify our party and focus on the job that needs to be done.

I am a one nation, proud Brexiteer. My campaign put forward a positive vision for the country I love so much, remembering who we are here to serve. Our mission is not only to deliver on what we promised but to win the fight against Labour at the next general election. I hope to play my part in both.

And this is from Liz Truss.

She says she is ready to “hit the ground from day one”.

She means “hit the ground running”, obviously. Things that hit the ground include people who trip, boxers who get knocked down and planes that crash.

Updated

Penny Mordaunt has released this message on Twitter.

It’s a call for unity – although technically wrong. Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are going forward to the next phase, but Mordaunt isn’t.

Updated

Sunak gets 137 votes, Truss 113 and Mordaunt 105

And here are the results again, showing how much each candidate has gained since yesterday.

Rishi Sunak - 137 (up 19)

Liz Truss - 113 (up 27)

Penny Mordaunt - 105 (up 13)

There were 59 Kemi Badenoch votes up for grabs after yesterday. These figures suggest Truss got almost half of them, but in the end she was only eight votes ahead of Mordaunt. And just over 30 votes separate Sunak, in first place, from Mordaunt, in third place. Broadly, the parliamentary party ended up splitting three ways.

Brady said it would now be up to Conservative members to elect the party leader.

The ballot will close on Friday 2 September, he said.

And he said he would announce the results at 12.30pm on Monday 5 September.

Sunak and Truss in final ballot of Tory members to choose next PM

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, is reading out the results.

Rishi Sunak - 137

Liz Truss - 113

Penny Mordaunt - 105

From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope

Penny Mordaunt’s supporters suspected the Liz Truss team were involved in the media attacks against her, James Forsyth from the Spectator says.

The Daily Mail was particularly hostile to Mordaunt, although there was also a prominent, hostile article in the Sunday Times. (See 3.40pm.)

Tom Newton Dunn from Talk TV is also picking up defeatism from the Penny Mordaunt camp.

Liz Truss has just recorded a message for supporters, Adam Payne from Politics Home reports.

The Penny Mordaunt camp are all but conceding defeat, the BBC’s Jonathan Blake reports.

Penny Mordaunt’s supporters are nervous about their chances in the leadership contest, Sky’s Beth Rigby reports. The results of the fifth ballot will be announced at 4pm.

Cabinet secretary launches inquiry into leak of trans policy documents used to damage Mordaunt campaign

Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, has agreed to launch a leak inquiry into the leak of government documents to the Sunday Times that were used to as the basis for a story undermining Penny Mordaunt’s claim that she never backed self-identification for trans people when she was equalities minister. The revelations were damaging to Mordaunt’s campaign for the Tory leadership.

These are from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

Updated

Theresa May, the former prime minister, may have been the only Tory MP in the chamber not applauding Boris Johnson after PMQs. Shehab Khan from ITV has the clip.

Updated

Gavin Williamson, the Tory former chief whip and Rishi Sunak supporter, has dismissed claims that he has been engaged in a secretive vote lending operation in the Tory leadership ballot, the i’s Arj Singh reports.

Williamson was one of the key figures in the Boris Johnson campaign in 2019 and it is widely believed that, in that contest, he did allocate some of Johnson’s votes to Jeremy Hunt in the final ballot to ensure that Johnson faced Hunt in the members’ ballot, not Michael Gove, who was seen as a more formidable opponent.

Gove was ahead of Hunt in the fourth ballot. But Hunt beat him by two votes in the final ballot for MPs.

In this contest there have been numerous theories about what sort of vote lending strategies are in play. The rumour mill went into overdrive yesterday after the results came in because the departure of the (remain, leftish) Tom Tugendhat from the race led to an improbable 15 extra votes going to the (Brexity, rightwing) Liz Truss.

Reporting on what might be happening, the Times says:

One theory is that Sunak “lent” some of his supporters to Truss to force [Kemi] Badenoch out of the race. This, one Tugendhat supporter suggested, could explain why Sunak’s vote rose so little while Truss’s rose disproportionately. Another theory is that Brexiteers who had backed Badenoch over Truss in the third round moved back to support the foreign secretary amid fears that she could be pushed out altogether, putting [Penny] Mordaunt in pole position to get a place in the run-off.

A third theory is that Badenoch was a potemkin candidate and that she and her most prominent backer Michael Gove will now declare for Sunak to give him the greatest momentum.

The Daily Mail today splashes on an alternative theory: that the Sunak camp will be lending votes to Penny Mordaunt today, to force Truss out of the race. The Mail is strongly backing Truss.

We will probably never be sure quite what is going on. But in 2019 Johnson had more than twice as many votes as any other candidate in every stage of the parliamentary ballot, meaning that he could easily afford to lend votes to someone else to knock out his most serious rival. In this contest Sunak’s lead is much narrower, making such tactics much more risky.

But even if campaigns are not directing their most loyal supportes to vote tactically for someone else, individual MPs may well be voting tactically with the intention of knocking someone out. In these contests, stopping the person you most dislike becoming leader can be a stronger incentive for voting than getting your favourite elected. Eleni Courea makes this point well in today’s London Playbook.

What is certainly true: There are both “stop Penny” and “stop Liz” crews eager to knock their least-desired candidate out of the running (as well as a “stop Rishi” crew camped inside No. 10). The big unknown of these parliamentary knock-out stages is how tactical voting by individual or small groups of MPs is influencing the final tallies. Playbook will say one thing: The margins in this contest are too narrow for Sunak’s team to try to play that game themselves without risk. “What you do have is MPs thinking who they could live with and backing them to move them into second place rather than vote for Rishi,” a Sunak campaign source tells the Times. “That is very dangerous freelancing. You only need 10 or 20 people to do that and Rishi is out of the final by accident.”

At the post-PMQs No 10 briefing Boris Johnson’s press secretary responded to Keir Starmer’s claim that Johnson is a “complete bullshitter”. (See 11.57am.) The press secretary said:

I would not respond with similar language of course.

But I would disagree with that characterisation. I think the prime minister has delivered a huge amount that was promised to the British public, not least getting Brexit done, which was delivering on the will of millions of people.

And [it’s] possibly slightly hypocritical of the leader of the opposition to say such things when he voted against doing that 48 times.

Updated

Government departments will have to fund this year's higher-than-expected pay awards out of existing budgets, says No 10

Downing Street has said government departments will have to fund the public sector pay awards announced yesterday out of their existing budgets. At the post-PMQs briefing, the PM’s spokesperson said:

There are no plans for the Treasury to provide additional resources beyond the £150bn increase in cash terms it’s providing over this parliament.

Department spending is growing on average 3.7% in real terms each year which is the largest increase for any parliament this century.

Asked whether this could mean cuts in other areas of departmental spending, the spokesperson replied:

The NHS themselves will make clear that there will not be a need for further cuts or savings as a result of these decisions, so the NHS will be able to focus on some of the core issues in front of it.

In a briefing this morning the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank said that, because the pay awards were higher than originally planned, government departments would have to make “painful cuts” elsewhere if their existing budgets were not increased. (See 11.37am.)

Updated

Tobias Ellwood has Tory whip temporarily restored so he can vote in leadership ballot

Tobias Ellwood has had the Tory whip temporarily restored so he can vote in the leadership ballot today, the government has revealed. A government whips office spokesperson said:

From the start of the leadership contest the whips office took a neutral position.

After Tobias Ellwood MP failed to attend an important vote he had the Conservative party whip suspended.

To ensure that the whips office neutrality in the leadership contest can not be questioned, the whip has been temporarily unsuspended from Tobias Ellwood MP.

Upon the conclusion of today’s leadership contest, Tobias Ellwood MP will have the whip suspended.

There were claims that Ellwood had the whip suspended because he was backing Penny Mordaunt rather than Liz Truss, who is seen as No 10’s preferred candidate.

PMQs – snap verdict

Sir Lindsay Hoyle said when he was elected Speaker that he would not let PMQs run for up to 40 or 50 minutes as his predecessor, John Bercow used to. However, this afternoon Hoyle made an exception to mark Boris Johnson’s final day at the dispatch box. Towards the end, after a long and often tedious session that mostly illuminated how threadbare Johnson’s legacy was, Hoyle must have been thinking it might have been better to pull the plug at 12.30 sharpish. But then, in his final answer, to Sir Edward Leigh, Johnson suddenly shifted gear and said something interesting.

It was the political equivalent of his last will and testament, and it is worth reproducing in full. He said:

I want to use the last few seconds to give some words of advice to my successor, whoever he or she may be.

Number one: Stay close to the Americans, stick up for the Ukrainians, stick up for freedom and democracy everywhere. Cut taxes and deregulate wherever you can to make this the greatest place to live and invest, which it is.

I love the Treasury but remember that if we’d always listened to the Treasury we wouldn’t have built the M25 or the Channel Tunnel.

Focus on the road ahead but always remember to check the rear-view mirror.

And remember, above all, it’s not Twitter that counts, it’s the people that sent us here.

The last few years have been the greatest privilege of my life, and it is true that I helped to get the biggest Tory majority for 40 years, and a huge realignment in UK politics. We have transformed our politics and restored our national independence.

We’ve helped, I’ve helped, get this country through a pandemic, and helped save another country from barbarism. And, frankly, that’s enough to be going on with. Mission largely accomplished – for now.

I want to thank you, Mr Speaker, I want to thank all the wonderful staff of the House of Commons, I want to thank all my friends and colleagues, I want to thank my friend opposite, I want to thank everybody here, and hasta la vista, baby, thank you.

Johnson shows little interest in introspection, and the speech he gave on Monday afternoon, at the opening of the debate on the motion of confidence in the government, was mostly a trite and unreliable catalogue of boasts. This afternoon’s statement was much more revealing, for three reasons.

First, it is a useful guide to what Johnson’s political convictions actually are: Atlanticism, low taxes and deregulation – conventional Conservatism, in other words, leavened with support for big spending projects of the kind the Treasury dislikes. Levelling up didn’t get a mention, nor the environment. But his advice to politicians (focus on the future, and don’t take Twitter too seriously) was sound.

Second, although Johnson has never publicly acknowledged that he was the cause of his own downfall, there was a hint here that his achievements have been limited. Listening to his speech on Monday, you would assume that his government was the most successful ever. But here he boiled it all down to: a big election victory, Brexit, getting through Covid, and Ukraine. “That’s enough to be going on with,” he added, suggesting there was much left undone.

And that leads on to the third, and most interesting, feature of his valedictory: the very strong hint that he wants to stage a comeback. “Mission largely accomplished – for now,” he said. And he concluded with a line from Terminator 2 normally translated as “See you later.” Another line from the same film (and, more famously, in the first Terminator movie) is “I’ll be back.”

The Tory applause for Johnson at the end seemed quite genuine, according to colleagues who were watching from the gallery. But that may just be a function of good manners, as much as anything else, and it doesn’t mean they want him to stay on. Keir Starmer did a good job at explaining quite what a mess Johnson had left his party in, and there is no evidence at all that the voters would welcome a second Johnson premiership. Britain has not seen an outgoing PM return to Downing Street after a period out of office for almost 50 years, since Harold Wilson in 1974. But, like his quasi US counterpart Donald Trump, Johnson is clearly mulling over the possibility of a comeback one day. It might not be the last PMQs after all.

Updated

Supporters of Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt were locked in a frantic last-minute battle for votes this morning before the final parliamentary ballot opened.

Two MPs backing Rishi Sunak told the Guardian they were expecting to face Liz Truss in the final ballot for party members. “I think she’s the one with the momentum,” one said.

Another Sunak supporter said they thought the votes were seeing “significant churn” but added they thought it would be a mistake for campaigns to lend votes. “It’s all very unpredictable, I don’t think trying to stitch it up either way would necessarily help particularly,”

Supporters of Sunak said they were hoping to see a new surge of votes for their candidate to give him momentum into the weekend. One MP said Sunak was a significantly better media performer than Truss which they hoped would give him the edge in the coming days. “We should be seeing his face everywhere as ballots start to land.”

In Camp Mordaunt MPs were stressing to colleagues that they believed Mordaunt versus Sunak would be a “clean campaign” as opposed to Sunak versus Truss, which one said would be full “blue on blue” - pointing to the attacks they had directed against each other in the TV debates.

MPs were punting out screenshots to colleagues showing Mordaunt’s electoral advantage. “I think even this morning we are seeing a swing away from Liz,” said one of Mordaunt’s campaign team.

Updated

'Mission largely accomplished,' claims Johnson as he ends final PMQs with standing ovation from Tories

Sir Edward Leigh (Con) says he wants to thank Johnson for rolling out the vaccines, for delivering Brexit, for rolling out levelling up and for supporting Ukraine. “For true grit and determination, keep going.”

Johnson thanks Leigh.

And he says he has advice for his successor. Stay close to the Americans, stay close to the Ukrainians, and stick up for freedom, he says.

He says he loves the Treasury, but if government had listened to them, it would never have built the M25.

Do not listen to Twitter, he suggests.

He says he got the country through the pandemic, and helped protect another country from barbarism.

“Mission largely accomplished ... for now,” he says. “Hasta la vista, baby,” he ends.

That’s a reference to this, from Terminator 2.

And that’s it. Johnson gets a standing ovation as he leaves the chamber.

Updated

Geraint Davies (Lab) says the PM will be remembered as a man of his word. “Pile them high” - 200,000 people died from Covid, he says. And he says people who took out student loans are now having to pay 7% ...

Tory MPs are jeering. Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, intervenes to get them to be quieter.

Will the PM help people in need, Davies says.

Johnson says students want a system where they do not pay back more than they borrow. And the government will get people into high-wage, high-skilled jobs, he says. He says Labour will let them languish on benefits.

Anna Firth (Con) says the PM to back plans for a new hospital in Southend.

Johnson says the case for this is being reviewed.

John Nicolson (SNP) asks how many people will be ennobled in Johnson’s resignation honours list.

Johnson says Nicolson will have to wait.

Martin Vickers (Con) asks about a tariff on white fish, and the impact it is having on the seafood industry in his constituency.

Johnson says he wants to encourage the fish and chip industry not to use Russian fish.

Kirsten Oswald (SNP) says Brexit was imposed on Scotland against its wishes. Does the PM accept Scotland is a democracy. He has no right to stop it having the referendum it voted for.

Johnson says the SNP is over-taxing to the tune of £900m. There was a referendum in 2014, he says.

Ronnie Cowan (SNP) asks why Scotland should not have the chance to seek prosperity through independence.

Johnson says the people of Scotland are supported by the massive fiscal firepower of the UK Treasury.

Mark Francois (Con) thanks Johnson for the Northern Ireland legacy bill, saying it means veterans do not have to fear prosecution.

Johnson thanks Francois for his campaigning on this.

John McNally (SNP) asks if Johnson respects the right of the people of Scotland to self-determination.

Johnson says he thinks there are more pressing issues for the people of Scotland.

Crispin Blunt (Con) recalls the deadlock in parliament over Brexit in 2019. Does the PM understand why he has the gratitude of constituents who can spot the wood for the trees?

Johnson thanks him for that.

Claire Hanna (SDLP) says the government has broken trust in the Good Friday agreement. Anglo-Irish relations have been damaged too, she says. Does the PM have any regrets about his legacy?

Johnson says he completely disagrees.

Kate Osamor (Lab) says only one applicant in four has received compensation from the Windrush compensation scheme. Shouldn’t the scheme be taken out of Home Office control.

Johnson says compensation payments have increased. And Labour has never apologised for the part it played in this scandal, he says.

Andrew Bowie (Con) thanks Johnson for his commitment to Scotland. Does the PM agree that the UK will always be stronger together?

Johnson says he could not have put it better himself.

Johnson says it is “clearly insane” to take a disposable barbecue on to dry grass.

Updated

Tony Lloyd (Lab) says people in the north do not think levelling up has achieved anything.

Johnson disagrees, citing his northern rail plans.

Jake Berry (Con) asks Johnson to urge his successors to maintain the levelling up agenda.

Johnson agrees. He says levelling up is about equality of opportunity.

Jamie Stone (Lib Dem) says wind power is crucial to the UK. Does the PM agree there should be a green freeport in the Highlands?

Johnson says two new green freeports will be funded in Scotland. That could not happen if the SNP took Scotland back into the EU, he says.

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, says we look forward to Johnson finishing his book on Shakespeare, so we can find out what he thinks about tragic figures brought down by their flaws. Does the PM agree his successor should call an election.

Johnson says Davey is like Polonius (the longwinded bore in Hamlet). He says if there were an election, the Lib Dems would get thrashed, because people would read their policies.

Marco Longhi (Con) says when he was a pilot, he used to rely on team. The PM should set his compass for Dudley, where he will always get a warm welcome.

Johnson says he has spent happy days in Dudely, and hopes there are more to come.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says Brexit has slashed £31bn from the economy. The growth forecast is the worst outside Russia, and inflation is at its highest for 40 years. He thanks Johnson for increasing support for Scottish independence.

Johnson rattles out positive achievements. In Scotland schools are not what they should be because of the SNP. And the Scottish government is not dealing with the drugs problem, he says.

Blackford accuses the Tories of showing disdain for Scotland. The PM is a rule breaker, partying through the pandemic, illegally proroguing parliament, and handing out contracts to cronies. He says the PM and his government should have had their last day a long time ago.

Johnson says, with regard to Blackford’s personal abuse, he is talking “a load of tosh”. H hopes Blackford reflects on the wisdom of breaking up the best country in the world.

Rob Roberts, the former Tory MP who is now an independent, attacks Labour’s record on the NHS in Wales.

Johnson says he wants devolution to work. But the devolved administrations need to do their job properly.

Starmer says the government got us into this mess, but do not know how to get out if it. What message does it send when the candidates for PM cannot say a single decent thing about his, each other or their record in government?

Johnson asks what it says about Labour that people cannot name a single policy they have, apart from putting up taxes. Starmer is like one of those “pointless, plastic bollards”. The government will legislate to curb the impact of strikes. He says Starmer does that pointless flapping gesture because the unions are pulling his strings.

Starmer says the public needs to know what the candidates think. He says Kemi Badenoch warned Rishi Sunak that the Covid loan scheme was subject to fraud. That cost the taxpayer £17bn. Is she telling the truth?

Johnson says this is the last blast from “Captain Hindsight”. Labour said the government should get PPE from a costume company. The government got PPE quickly. Labour is economically illiterate and would wreck the economy, he says.

Updated

Starmer says he is going to miss Johnson’s “delusion”. He says Truss said Sunak’s plans would cause recession, and Penny Mordaunt said public services were in a desperate strait. Who has been running the government for 12 years?

Johnson says what matters to people is getting appointments, ambulance times etc. That is why the government passed the health and social care levy. Labour opposed it. Starmer is a “great, pointless human bollard”.

Updated

Starmer says all his spending pledges are costed. The Tory candidates have made unfunded pledges worth £330bn. Does the PM agree with Liz Truss that, if Rishi Sunak has a plan for growth, we should have seen it already?

Johnson praises the way the government responded to the pandemic. There have been tax cuts, he says. He says under Labour families on low incomes get most of their income from benefits. Under the Tories, most of it comes from work, he claims.

Starmer says he is impressed Johnson could get through that with a straight face. Disaster struck when the public heard from the candidates.

Does the PM agree with Rishi Sunak that the plans of his opponents are “fantasy economics?”

Johnson says Labour knows all about “fantasy economics”. Labour has committed to unfunded spending pledges of more than £90bn. He says unemployment is very low.

Updated

Keir Starmer says the relationship between a PM and a leader of the opposition is not easy. But he would like to wish the PM and his family the best for the future.

He asks why the Tory leadership candidates decided to pull out of the Sky debate last night.

Johnson says he is “not following this thing particularly closely”, but he thinks the public have had ample opportunity already to view the talent. “Like some household detergent”, they would wipe the floor with the opposition. He says a year ago lockdown was lifted. Starmer said it was reckless, he says.

Luke Evans (Con) asks about Johnson’s assessment of Nato.

Johnson says the accession of Finland and Sweden to Nato will make it stronger.

Kim Leadbeater (Lab) says MPs can reflect on the seven principles of public life. But trust in politicians is at an all time low. Will the PM reflect on why that is, and what advice would he give to MPs?

Tory MPs start jeering half way through.

Johnson says he will be using the next few weeks to drive forward his agenda, which Labour fears – uniting and levelling up. That is why the Tories will win again, he says.

Updated

Boris Johnson praises the work of firefighters. And he wishes the Lionesses the best for their match this evening.

This will certainly be his last PMQs “from this despatch box, or any other dispatch box”, he says.

Updated

Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, notes this is likely to be Boris Johnson’s last PMQs. He wishes Johnson and his family the best for the future. We have been through many dark times in this house, including during the pandemic, he says. Johnson’s leadership during that period will be remembered, he says.

Hoyle urges MPs to conduct themselves in a respectful manner today.

From the Sun’s Kate Ferguson

From the BBC’s Peter Saull

Boris Johnson leaving No 10 ahead of PMQs
Boris Johnson leaving No 10 ahead of PMQs. Photograph: Niklas Halle’n/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Johnson 'a complete bullshitter', says Starmer

Keir Starmer has given an interview to The Rest is Politics, the podcast hosted by Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former communications chief, and Rory Stewart, the former Tory cabinet minister. Perhaps because the presence of Campbell reminded him of Malcolm Tucker, Starmer got all sweary when asked for his assessment of Boris Johnson. He said:

He is a complete bullshitter, and I think he’s been found out ... In the local elections there was a general realisation that this guy bullshits, if he’s bullshitting about that [Partygate], he’s probably bullshitting about everything.

We’re unlikely to get language like that at PMQs,

Johnson to take PMQs for final time

Boris Johnson is taking PMQs at 12pm. With the Commons starting its summer recess tomorrow, and the winner of the Tory leadership election due to be announced when parliament returns on Monday 5 September, this will be Johnson’s last time doing these exchanges.

We suspect he hoped he would not be here. Last week he implied that for some reason he might be absent this week. But he’s here.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

PMQs
PMQs Photograph: HoC

In an analysis of the yesterday’s public sector pay awards published this morning, the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank says the new prime minister will have to decide whether to increase departmental spending budgets, to fund the higher-than-expected pay awards, or to require the awards to be funded from existing budgets, requiring cuts elsewhere. It says:

One option is to top up spending plans to at least partially fund the costs of higher-than-expected pay awards, shoring up departments’ ability to deliver on the government’s public service objectives (such as clearing the NHS backlog). This would come at the cost of higher borrowing and reduced fiscal room for the tax cuts seemingly desired by the entire field of would-be prime ministers.

The other option is to stick to existing spending plans, instead requiring public services to make some painful cuts: to other budgets, to headcount, or to the range and quality of service provision. Reducing the government’s public services ‘offer’ is a coherent response to a series of global economic shocks that make us poorer as a nation. But the government should be honest about what that implies for the NHS, local government, and other public services.

Penny Mordaunt, the international trade minister and Tory leadership candidate, has proposed a project to compose a new UK theme tune. She made the comment in an interview with the Spectator in which she paid tribute to the old UK theme (a medley of British tunes), which used to be played at the crack of down on Radio 4 until it was replaced by a news broadcast.

Sunak's pledge to maintain ban on new onshore windfarms 'economic illiteracy', says Labour

Ed Miliband, the shadow climate change secretary, has described Rishi Sunak’s promise to maintain the ban on new onshore windfarms as “economic illiteracy”. He said:

As Britain boils in an unprecedented heatwave, it is economic illiteracy and unilateral economic disarmament in the fight against the climate crisis that Rishi Sunak wants to keep the ban on onshore wind.

Anyone with such dangerous views is not a serious candidate for high office. But this is the reality: a Conservative leadership race in which candidates have engaged in fantasy climate denial that will lead to higher energy bills, damage our security and burdens future generations with extreme weather events.

My colleague Peter Walker has more on the reaction to Sunak’s promise in his story here.

Robert Colvile, the Sunday Times columnist and head of the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank, says he is baffled by Rishi Sunak’s pledge to ban onshore windfarms (see 9.17am) – because Tory voters are mostly in favour of them.

Colvile co-wrote the Conservative party manifesto in 2019 with Rachel Wolf. She also thinks the Sunak announcement is a mistake.

Updated

Damian Green, the former first secretary of state and chair of the One Nation Conservatives group, has endorsed Penny Mordaunt for leader. Previously he was backing Tom Tugendhat. Green said:

I have thought long and hard about what to do in today’s leadership ballot and I will be voting for Penny Mordaunt. She offers a fresh start and a chance to unify the party and deliver for the country.

Government might abandon some spending pledges under Truss as PM, leading supporter says

Simon Clarke was doing the morning interview round for the government this morning. He was ostensibly speaking in his capacity as chief secretary to the Treasury (in which capacity he backs the government’s tax policies, including the national insurance increase), but he was also answering questions as a supporter of Liz Truss’s leadership campaign (which believes the national insurance increase was a mistake). Understandably, at time this was confusing.

Here are the main points from his interviews.

  • Clarke suggested that, if Truss became leader, the government might abandon some of its current spending plans. He told LBC

[Rishi Sunak] was delivering against the spending plans set out by the current prime minister, Boris Johnson. Those spending plans do not automatically need to be the case under a new prime minister. That will be my crucial difference with Rishi. I don’t believe those plans should be regarded as set in stone. With a new leader come new choices, and Liz has set out very clearly the things that she would prioritise, which includes tax cuts. I think that must be right.

  • Clarke refused to say whether he had told Sunak that he disagreed with the national insurance increase. Speaking on the Today programme, Clarke pointed out that he only became chief secretary to the Treasury after that increase had been agreed. Asked if he had told Sunak he thought it was a mistake, he said: “We are bound by collective responsibility.”
  • He claimed he was not being inconsistent in backing one tax policy as a Treasury minister, while also backing an alternative approach as a supporter of the Truss campaign. The election of a new leader would allow policy to change, he said:

We are right on the cusp of electing a new leader of the Conservative party and prime minister and it will be for that leader to make new choices. Liz is clear, if she is elected there will be a new spending review, which will take effect from day one.

I believe it is absolutely the case with a new leader comes new choices.

  • He said he was backing Truss for leader because she had an “exciting plan for growth”. He said:

I think she has the most exciting plan for economic growth and she set out a compelling plan to lower the burden of taxation.

I have very high regard for Rishi Sunak.

I am here to make the case for what I think is the right future step in terms of where we go from here and that is for a government led by Liz Truss.

  • He defended the decision to remove the whip from Tobias Ellwood for missing the confidence vote on Monday (see 9.45am), saying that Ellwood made a “very serious mistake”. Clarke explained:

He was in Moldova, rather than Ukraine. He was not on government work, he is a backbench MP.

  • He defended the decision to offer public sector workers below-inflation pay awards. He said:

It is crucially important, when setting public sector pay for the people who do so much hard work for our society, that we strike the right balance between managing the risk of worsening inflation, of baking it in and making it worse by setting very high pay deals while also looking after our workforce, and obviously the offer that is being made to the public sector has to be seen in the context of that £37bn package of support which is designed to help family incomes.

Simon Clarke.
Simon Clarke. Photograph: Tayfun Salcı/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Penny Mordaunt seemed to be telling Tory MPs this morning they would “murder” the Conservative party if they voted for one of her rivals. She posted a message on Twitter saying “Tory MPs – vote for Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss today and you’ll murder the party you love”, although the tweet has now been deleted.

Mordaunt tweet
Mordaunt tweet Photograph: Twitter

In fact, Mordaunt was just quoting the headline on a Daily Telegraph column that she is tweeting. It’s by Allison Pearson, and in it she says “it is Mordaunt, the Royal Navy reservist and centrist, who can unite our divided country and, most crucially, prevent a Tory wipe-out at the next election.”

Updated

Tobias Ellwood says Tories risk 'long spell in opposition' because of party infighting

Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee who had the whip removed for missing Monday’s confidence vote, told Sky News this morning that his party risked “a long spell in opposition” because of the infighting taking place. He said:

The nation wants to be impressed and inspired, not demoralised, by what they’re witnessing right now. And we need to perhaps exhibit greater decorum, dial the temperature down a bit, showcase the ideas, the vision, focus on those things that are important, that the nation wants to see.

That’s what will earn us the right to stay in government otherwise, we’re just going to be letting ourselves down and indeed committing ourselves to probably a long spell in opposition.

Ellwood missed the vote because he could not return in time from a visit to Moldova. He said that he was sorry he could not get to the Commons in time, and that he kept the whips’ office informed of his situation. “There were a problems with travel,” he said. “I am very sorry I didn’t make it back.”

The removal of the whip means Ellwood can no longer vote in the parliamentary ballot for the Tory leadership, and Ellwood refused to comment on speculation that he was penalised because he is backing Penny Mordaunt, not the de facto No 10 candidate, Liz Truss. Explaining why he did not want to comment, he said:

I’d be then fuelling the blue-on-blue [attacks], which I’m actually trying to avoid.

Let’s focus on how we can move forward and make sure that we conclude this leadership campaign to the highest professional standard that I think the British people want to see.

UK inflation hits fresh 40-year high of 9.4% as fuel prices rise

Rising petrol and diesel prices for motorists and dearer food pushed Britain’s annual inflation rate to a fresh 40-year high of 9.4% last month, my colleague Larry Elliott reports.

Sunak pledges to maintain ban on new onshore windfarms as MPs set to choose final two candidates

Good morning. Boris Johnson will take PMQs for the last time as prime minister at 12pm, and an hour later Conservative MPs will start voting in what should be the last parliamentary leadership ballot. At 4pm we should know who the two candidates will be on the ballot for party members. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, is almost certain to be on it, and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is likely to be there too, but Penny Mordaunt, the international trade secretary, has been in second place in all four previous ballots and she has a chance too.

All three candidates are making last-minute appeals to Tory MPs.

  • Sunak has promised to maintain the rules that in effect ban new onshore windfarms in England. He made the pledge as he promised that he would also set a new “energy sovereignty” target for 2045, so that at that point the UK produces as much energy as it uses. Sunak said:

I am committed to net zero by 2050, but that can’t mean neglecting our energy security. So although the legal target for energy sovereignty will be 2045 and I will work night and day to ensure we beat that target, securing a safer future for the next generation.

Wind energy will be an important part of our strategy, but I want to reassure communities that as prime minister I would scrap plans to relax the ban on onshore wind in England, instead focusing on building more turbines offshore.

David Cameron’s government stopped the creation of new onshore windfarms in England by excluding them from subsidies available for other forms of renewable energy and tightening the planning laws, making it easier for communities to block developments. Johnson’s government has floated the prospect of lifting these restrictions. Although onshore wind is a cheap form of renewable energy, the turbines are particularly unpopular with activists in Tory constituencies.

  • Truss has said that she will lead “a government of all the talents” if she becomes PM. In an article for the Daily Telegraph, in which she restates her commitment to reversing the national insurance rise and temporarily suspending the green levy on energy bill, she says:

As prime minister, I would unite the party and lead a government of all the talents that includes the best and brightest from across the Conservatives. The quality of candidates that have taken part in this leadership race reflects how healthy our party is and how alive with ideas it remains.

This implies MPs from all wings of the party could be included in her government. Truss’s supporters are also been reviving suggestions that Mordaunt is not experienced enough to be PM. Simon Clarke, a Truss supporter and chief secretary to the Treasury, said one reason why he was supporting Truss was that she was ready for the job “on day one”.

  • Mordaunt has insisted that she is the only candidate offering “a genuine fresh start’. A source from her campaign team told journalists.

Today is about continuity vs change for the Conservative party. Penny’s been speaking with colleagues already this morning and so many of Tom and Kemi’s backers are calling out for change. As the only one not in Johnson’s cabinet, Penny is the sole MP left in the race who offers a genuine fresh start. Not every candidate would win an election, but time and time again the polls show that Penny is the candidate Labour fear the most.

MPs have a choice today - the same old or a new start for the Conservative party. Their colleagues, party members, and voters across the country are crying out for something new but only Penny Mordaunt can deliver that.

Here is the agenda for the day.

12pm: Boris Johnson takes PMQs for the last time as prime minister, facing Keir Starmer.

After 12.45pm: MPs begin the final day’s debate on the Northern Ireland protocol bill.

1pm: Conservative MPs start voting in the fifth parliamentary ballot for the party leadership. And it should be the final one, unless there is a draw, in which case a further ballot would take place. The ballot closes at 3pm.

4pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, announces the results of the ballot - which should produce the names of the two candidates who will be on the final ballot for party members.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Updated

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