Conservatives who want to railroad through measures to curb small boat crossings by pulling the UK out of the European convention on human rights (EHRC) could make a “tactical retreat” and instead lobby for a commitment in the party’s next manifesto.
Some of those who put their name to a rebel amendment to the illegal migration bill, which is due to go through its final parliamentary stages next Tuesday, told the Guardian a climbdown was possible.
Instead of pushing for the bill to explicitly allow ministers and the UK courts to ignore interim injunctions obstructing plans to speed up the removal of migrants, they may instead set their eyes on exploiting the issue as a dividing line with Labour at the next election.
Sources inside the group said they may be prepared to not press the matter, after being invited to breakfast at Downing Street by Rishi Sunak on Tuesday and given personal assurances.
The Home Office is due to publish its own amendments to the bill on Thursday, and the immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, held talks with one of the rebel ringleaders, Danny Kruger, on Tuesday afternoon.
Final decisions are not believed to have been taken about the amendments, with jostling going down to the wire over any clause about the removals going ahead “notwithstanding” any judgments by the EHRC.
There are also discussions about potential compromises over other possible Tory amendments, including creating more safe and legal routes for asylum seekers.
In a meeting with the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs on Tuesday, the prime minister was said to have resisted committing to ignore rulings from judges in Strasbourg, which have led to the Rwanda removals plan being stalled.
But according to several of those present, he told them he had “skin in the game, too” and was staking his own premiership on an unequivocal commitment to stop the boats.
He is said to have stressed the illegal migration bill was already tough, and urged against Tory disunity by pointing to the narrowing in the opinion polls and threat that any rebellion may pose to the party’s performance in the local elections.
Several prospective rebels were sympathetic but said they expected him not to give in to any attempts by other groups of Tory MPs to “weaken” the bill – for instance by adding exemptions for people who claim to be victims of modern slavery.
“We’re not going to be told to get back into our cage only for the other side to get their own concessions,” said one.
Another added: “This might be our final shot – the last proper vehicle to get our immigration system sorted out before the next election. We want to hold the government’s feet to the fire.”
Some are relaxed about the possibility of Kruger’s potential rebels pushing their amendment, given the impossibility of such a motion passing without cross-party support.
“They’re a paper tiger,” said one senior government source. “The real concern is on amendments that could stand the chance of attracting support from the Labour party.”
They pointed to those such as one proposed by Tim Loughton to improve safe and legal routes.
All authorised leave for Tory MPs is said to have been cancelled next Tuesday, in a sign that the whips’ office expects there could be some tight votes.
It came as the number of people who reached the UK in small boats this year hit 5,000, with 113 arriving in three vessels on Monday, taking the total since the start of the year to 5,049. By the same date in 2022 the number was higher at 6,300.
The figures were used by Downing Street to argue that some recent measures – such as boosting work with the French government to increase interceptions in the Channel – were helping to reduce crossings.
Sunak’s spokesperson said ending the crossings significantly would take time and require an “incremental approach”.
They added it was “too early to draw conclusions at this stage” to pinpoint the effect of specific policies, “given we know the impact the weather can have on weekly, even daily, crossings”.
However, Labour used the figures to renew its attacks on the Conservatives’ “failure” to stem the crossings despite the promised Rwanda removal plan. Since the £140m partnership was signed on 14 April 2022, 44,976 people have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel in small boats.
Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, accused the prime minister of failing to “tackle the criminal gangs or sort out the chaos in the asylum system” and instead offering only “rhetoric and gimmicks”.
She pointed to Sunak’s recent refusal to stand by his commitment to stop the boats by the next general election, and said Labour would set up returns arrangements with Europe and overhaul resettlement schemes.
