Had things gone according to the worst fears of Number 10, the only talking point from the local elections would be how long Boris Johnson could survive as party leader. Indeed, had the Labour Party done as well as Tony Blair used to when John Major was premier, Johnson would probably be out by the end of next week.
But as poor as the Conservative performance has been, the clamour to get rid of their leader has not yet transpired. Certainly some bruised former Tory council leaders have called for him to go — the former leader of Wandsworth Council being among them — because Partygate and integrity were issues on the doorsteps and because they and voters don’t have much faith in Johnson to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
The leadership threat is a case of ‘the dog that didn’t bark’ after most of Conservative backbenchers who indicated they’d be sending ‘no-confidence’ letters to the 1922 Committee lost their nerve. It is not yet crystal clear to many Conservatives that Johnson is a net electoral liability. Activists and many MPs are invested in Johnson because they feel they owe Brexit and the 2019 election triumph to him personally. But are they right, or are they unknowingly sticking with a loser?
Evidence that Johnson is a net liability is threefold. First is the opinion poll deficit, largely down to Partygate, sleaze and the cost-of-living crisis. Second is this week’s election results, which have been disastrous in Scotland, terrible in London, disappointing in much of the south and south west of England and occasionally impressive in parts of the north of England and Midlands. Third, the economic and political environment is set to worsen rather than improve, with 10 per cent inflation, a possible recession, pressure on the NHS and who knows what fresh crises thrown up by sleaze, war, covid or Brexit.
It’s too early to say how these influences would translate into parliamentary seats. A swing of about seven per cent to Labour compared with the 2019 election would probably leave Labour as the largest party and able to form a government with the permission of the Libs Dems, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Alliance and/or the SNP. But even that can’t be assumed, still less an overall Labour majority. It’s not obvious that Johnson would lose the next election, even assuming he might stage some kind of recovery.
A new uncertain factor for the next election will be the efficacy of tactical voting across the opposition parties. Will Labour be able to capitalise on its distant second place and increase the number of Labour MPs towards something closer to the parliamentary party it used to take for granted? If SNP voters lent votes to Scottish Labour to be rid of Johnson, it could transform the battle.
And of course, there could be more Fixed Penalty Notices in Downing Street and maybe one day even the Sue Gray report could be published. There is also now the very real possibility that Sir Keir Starmer could end up in more trouble from Durham Constabulary over the April 2021 Covid event that his enemies have dubbed ‘Beergate’.
There will be by-elections to fight — in Tiverton and Honiton, Wakefield and possibly Leicester East. The prime minister will have to show he has some policies and ideas beyond the usual slogans, and that he might be trusted. Johnson’s problems aren’t behind him yet.
