The Tories face losing around 500 seats in the May 1 local elections with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK expected to make major gains, according to a leading pollster.
Kemi Badenoch’s party will be defending more than 900 seats, and Labour around 280, once boundary changes are taken into account.
But the last time these town hall polls were held was four years ago when the Conservatives were enjoying a surge in popularity under Boris Johnson on the back of the Covid vaccine roll-out.
So, Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward believes the Conservatives may lose between 475 and 525 seats, more than halving their total to around 375/425.
Such heavy losses could see them lose control of a string of town halls.
Many of these losses are expected to be to Reform in the Midlands and the North, with Mr Farage’s party possibly winning 400 to 450 seats.
Mrs Badenoch has already braced her party for heavy losses.
In London’s commuter belt, including Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire, and the broader South, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to gain 70 to 80 seats, taking their total to around 300, many of them in constituencies currently represented by the party’s MPs.
Labour could lose some seats to Reform while gaining others from the Tories, so could end up with around 280 seats, though, they could be up or down by about 25 seats.
The Greens could nearly double their number of seats to between 60 and 80 and may pull off some suprise victories.
But these local elections are particularly hard to forecast as the rise of Reform, and to a lesser extent the Lib-Dems and Greens, mean that there are fewer traditional straight political fights between Labour and the Tories.
Lord Hayward believes this means that many seats will be won on extremely low percentages and therefore also by very tight margins.
A YouGov poll earlier this week showed Reform UK stretching its lead over the Tories, with the parties on 25% and 20% respectively.
Mr Farage’s party will also be hoping to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election which was triggered by the resignation of Mike Amesbury, who was a Labour MP and pleaded guilty earlier this year to punching a constituent.
Mr Jenrick denied he was suggesting a pact with Reform, and the Tory leader has ruled this out.
About 1,650 seats will be contested on 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, one metropolitan district, and in the the Isles of Scilly.
Mayoral elections will also take place in the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and for the first time in Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire.
