The Tories would suffer the biggest by-election defeat in British history in a by-election for Nadine Dorries' seat, a bombshell poll has revealed.
Labour would overturn the former Culture Secretary's 24,663 majority in Mid Bedfordshire which has been represented by the Conservative party since 1931.
The polling by Opinium, seen by the Telegraph, will shock nervy Tory MPs, many of whom have already announced they are standing down at the next election likely to dodge an embarrassing defeat.
A fresh YouGov poll last week found support for Rishi Sunak's party had fallen to 22% - the lowest its been in four months and only three points higher than its lowest this parliament after Liz Truss's disastrous mini-budget.
It showed 47% of people are in favour of Keir Starmer's party, giving him a 25-point lead, as Brits lose faith in Mr Sunak's government in the wake of soaring inflation and the continuing cost of living crisis.
Ms Dorries dramatically said she is to step down as an MP in an act of revenge against the PM on June 9.
The Top Tory, who is a fanatical Boris Johnson backer and Sunak critic, had already announced in February that she would not contest the next election but in a shock move last month said she would stand down with immediate effect.
While she has still not officially stood down yet, Ms Dorries confirmed last week she will "definitely be gone" as the MP for Mid Bedfordshire before the next general election.
She has said the reason she had not yet handed in her resignation was due to some outstanding documents.
"I'll be gone long before the next general election," she said on Talk TV, during an interview with Vanessa Feltz.
Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Kyle, who is running Labour’s campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said: “The community here is fleeing the Tories but they haven’t fully chosen their destination yet.
"There’s no complacency here for Labour but it’s just a massive, unprecedented and historic opportunity.”
Ms Dorries was among the Tory MPs and peers were last week named and shamed in a scathing report for having tried to "undermine" the Privileges Committee's Partygate probe.
Speaking about the committee's report into the former Partygate PM, she said: "Defending the truth is incredibly important... it's not over yet, there's no committee of MPs that should be allowed to distort the truth," she said.
"I did not go to Westminster to watch processes take place, to watch statements made which are a corruption of the truth."
"And that's why I'm waiting at the moment. I've resigned, I've let people know I'm resigning, the next [Tory] candidate has been appointed."
Adam Drumming, an associate director of Opinium, said: “The Conservatives are holding onto just under half of their 2019 vote and losing big chunks to a mix of Labour, Lib Dems, Reform and the local independent while Labour gains some from the Tories and Lib Dems to just put them ahead.”
The poll shows that there is “all to play for” once Ms Dorries hands in her resignation, which will formally trigger the by-election, he added.
Mr Johnson suffered the Tories biggest by-election defeat in British History when the Lib Dems pulled off a bombshell victory in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election in June last year.
Lib Dem candidate Richard Foord overturned a 24,239 majority in the Devon constituency - a Conservative heartland for a century - beating his Tory opponent Helen Hurford, a former headmistress.
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