POLLING experts have given us their predictions for what to expect in the year ahead after the chaos and upheavals of 2022.
Political scientists who spoke with The National have warned Yessers not to hope for Labour to drop their staunch opposition to indyref2 and of the risk of independence falling off the agenda for Scots as the realities of the impending UK recession begin to hit home.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the head of top pollsters Survation, warned the threat of economic downturn and the effects that would have on people’s day-to-day lives could push independence down the agenda.
But he added that support for Yes was in the ascendancy and economic calamity could provide ammunition for independence supporters arguing Scotland would be better off “managing its own way out of the coming recession and cost of living crisis”.
Dr Fraser McMillan, research associate at Glasgow University’s school of social and political science warned the country risked falling into “political stalemate on the constitutional question” after the Scottish Government “exhausted all palatable options” on holding a second independence vote.
He said the bounce seen by Yes in opinion polls came after “months of chaos” in Westminster and the Supreme Court’s denial of a referendum – and warned this lead may prove difficult for the independence side to keep up in the months ahead.
Dr McMillan said: “So while most Scots are firmly decided one way or the other, the balance in indyref polling tilts in favour of Yes when UK Government behaviour highlights perceived differences in competence between the Westminster and Holyrood administrations.
“Accordingly, Yes has regained the lead following months of chaos at Westminster and the Supreme Court decision. Scottish Election Study data suggests that the shift has more to do with the former than the latter.
“Because the SNP will have a hard time keeping indy at the top of people’s minds, if Sunak can prevent any more political calamities, I would expect Yes support to drop off slightly from the current highs.”
Lyons Lowe added that the SNP’s tactic of using the next General Election as a de facto independence referendum was a “sensible move” but noted it was expected the UK would next go to the polls in 2024.
He said: “The SNP’s call for a de facto referendum in Scotland during Westminster elections in 2024 is a sensible move by the party, in terms of both maximising the party’s turnout and vote share - mopping up some Labour voters for example that are strongly in favour of independence, and signalling to the new Westminster government emerging from the election that Scotland’s will on the constitutional question is, potentially at least a small majority for independence, in line with recent Scottish polling we’ve seen.
“Achieving independence via a referendum remains in the gift of the Westminster government, and with Labour (who have chosen a hard line against independence) far ahead in UK-wide opinion polls, the hope that the SNP could use their 2024 Westminster results as leverage for an indyref during hung parliament government negotiations currently look dim - Labour are a long way from requiring SNP MPs to prop up a Labour minority administration.
“If, during 2023, Labour continue the types of polling leads we’ve seen in 2022 there is unlikely to be any need for the party to soften their anti-independence stance.”
He added that his polling firm currently put Labour on course to pick up six seats from the SNP – but that the party was expected to make this up in a predicted electoral wipe-out for the Tories and the LibDems north of the Border.
Dr McMillan added: “Scots are likely to remain evenly split on indy in 2023 – the big unknown is what might happen to Yes support if Labour win in 2024."
Their predictions in full …
Damian Lyons Lowe - chief executive of Survation
“The SNP’s call for a de facto referendum in Scotland during Westminster elections in 2024 is a sensible move by the party, in terms of both maximising the party’s turnout and vote share - mopping up some Labour voters for example that are strongly in favour of independence, and signalling to the new Westminster government emerging from the election that Scotland’s will on the constitutional question is, potentially at least a small majority for independence, in line with recent Scottish polling we’ve seen.
“Achieving independence via a referendum remains in the gift of the Westminster government, and with Labour (who have chosen a hard line against independence) far ahead in UK-wide opinion polls, the hope that the SNP could use their 2024 Westminster results as leverage for an indyref during hung parliament government negotiations currently look dim - Labour are a long way from requiring SNP MPs to prop up a Labour minority administration.
“If, during 2023, Labour continue the types of polling leads we’ve seen in 2022 there is unlikely to be any need for the party to soften their anti-independence stance.
“Scottish Westminster projections are unlikely to trouble Labour. Survation projects Labour picking up six seats from the SNP were an election to happen tomorrow however the SNP’s current popularity level in Scotland would see the party wiping out the Conservatives entirely (we forecast six SNP gains from the Conservatives as well as the three remaining Lib Dem seats).
“With hopes for independence ‘stuck in the mud’ therefore as we enter 2023, the focus politically in Scotland for voters will almost certainly still be on the cost of living.
“Real incomes are set to be further squeezed, even in the event of inflation having peaked, with worries about the UK entering a recession and the effect on jobs and prosperity paramount. 2023 will also be a year that NHS Scotland (as with the other national health services) will be under extreme pressure. The Scottish public when are particularly concerned with long hospital waiting lists.
“Pro-independence voices will of course argue that Scotland would be better off managing its own way out of the coming recession and cost of living crisis, given full powers - the pro-Union counterpoint will still be that taking Scotland out of the UK would make matters worse.
“Judging by the general improvement in polling for independence, pro-independence voices are currently winning that argument among the public, however, the economic mess ahead will keep the focus of 2023 away from independence still some way down the road, and instead on navigating the current economic turmoil.”
Dr Fraser McMillan - research associate in Glasgow University’s school of social and political science
“Now that the Scottish Government have exhausted all of the palatable options on holding an independence referendum, 2023 will be a year of political stalemate on the constitutional question as the cost of living crisis dominates the agenda.
“What will happen to support for independence under these conditions, with the next general election still some way off? Around a quarter of voters are what we might call 'persuadable', being either undecided or liable to switch.
“So while most Scots are firmly decided one way or the other, the balance in indyref polling tilts in favour of Yes when UK government behaviour highlights perceived differences in competence between the Westminster and Holyrood administrations.
“Accordingly, Yes has regained the lead following months of chaos at Westminster and the Supreme Court decision. Scottish Election Study data suggests that the shift has more to do with the former than the latter.
“Because the SNP will have a hard time keeping indy at the top of people’s minds, if Sunak can prevent any more political calamities I would expect Yes support to drop off slightly from the current highs.
“Scots are likely to remain evenly split on indy in 2023 – the big unknown is what might happen to Yes support if Labour win in 2024."
