The U.S. presidential elections are now less than two weeks away, and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a seemingly dead-heat battle, with top forecaster FiveThirtyEight indicating that the Democrat wins the race 48 times out of 100 and her Republican contender does so in the remaining 52.
So as the race gears up to be defined by slim margins, analysts and pundits are looking to different factors that can help them determine which way the scale will be tipped. James Carville, a former Democratic campaign official and a consultant to super PAC American Bridge, detailed three reasons why he believes Harris will be the next president.
In a guest essay for The New York Times, Carville mentioned Trump's losing streak, Harris' fundraising edge and "a feeling" as the deciding factors for his "certainty" about a Democratic victory.
Regarding the first topic, Carville said that "the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over." He recalled the 2018 midterms were the "largest House landslide for Democrats in a midterm election since Watergate; that in 2020 he was "decisively bucked from the White House by Joe Biden"; and that 2022 was an "embarrassment of a midterm for Republicans off the heels of Dobbs."
"And the Democrats have been performing well in special elections since Trump appointees on the Supreme Court helped take away a basic right of American women. Guess what? Abortion is on the ballot again — for president," Carville added. He went on to say that Trump has not learned from his electoral losses nor he has sought to broaden his base, and that losing votes from Republicans who backed Nikky Haley "leaves Mr. Trump running the final leg of this race with a fundamental fracture of the femur."
In contrast, he added, Harris managed to form a coalition including the likes of progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney.
Looking at the second issue, money, Carville highlighted that the vice president "has raised an eye-boggling $1 billion, and last quarter one of her fund-raising committees reeled in $633 million — dwarfing what Mr. Trump raised with two committees combined."
"All this cash not only effectively offsets the flow of money funneling in for Mr. Trump from some tech billionaires, but it has also given Ms. Harris the resources she needs to persuade swing voters with ads and to organize on the ground," he added.
This can help her effectively counter TV ads or public statements "painting Ms. Harris as extreme" and, in turn, can "forcefully remind suburban women and voters in the middle that Mr. Trump is, in fact, the extremist candidate."
Finally, Carville said his last reason is "100 percent emotional." He claimed that "if the Cheneys and AOC get that the Constitution and our democracy are on the ballot, every true conservative and every true progressive should get it too," countering the narrative that the country is too polarized.
"I refuse to believe that the same country that has time and again overcome its mistakes to bend its future toward justice will make the same mistake twice. America overcame Mr. Trump in 2020. I know that we know we are better than this," he added. However, all polls show the razor-thin margins the elections will be decided by will determine whether his arguments were right or not.
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