Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Security Brief.
What’s on tap today: The top U.S. general makes a surprise visit to Afghanistan, the U.S. government reels from a suspected Russian hack, and the U.S. Army is looking for some catchy new slogans.
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Milley Makes a Move
The Trump administration may be intent on drawing down U.S. forces in Afghanistan before Inauguration Day—but don’t tell that to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. In an unannounced trip this week, the top military officer visited Taliban negotiators in Qatar to urge the group to cut down on violent attacks, which have risen as the White House has pushed for a faster withdrawal than advised by military officials.
“The most important part of the discussions that I had with both the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan was the need for an immediate reduction in violence. Everything else hinges on that,” Milley told a traveling press contingent, which agreed to hold off on reporting about the trip until it ended.
While Milley’s behind-the-scenes trip is likely to grab headlines, it’s not clear how much leverage the United States has to move the talks forward. The Doha agreement calls for the United States to zero out troop levels in Afghanistan by mid-2021 if the Taliban upholds commitments to halt the violence. But the U.S. President Donald Trump has opted for a quicker time frame, drawing down to 2,500 troops by January. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is drawing fire from U.S. government watchdogs who say that the agency failed to properly keep track of sensitive defense equipment provided to the Afghans that went missing on the battlefield.
Experts have urged President-elect Joe Biden to stay the course on talks by allowing Trump’s envoy for the Afghan talks, Zalmay Khalilzad, to stay in place. But the incoming administration may have little patience for the negotiations, as so-called “forever wars” are likely to take a back seat to bigger foreign policy priorities, such as pivoting U.S. focus to Asia and the fight against the coronavirus at home.
In the latest round of talks, the Taliban has made 24 significant demands, including a new constitution and a return to Islamic government, as both sides work toward a renewed cease-fire.
What We’re Watching
Change your password. A slow-rolling disaster is unfurling within U.S. national security agencies, as new details emerge of a massive hack that targeted the federal government, likely engineered by Russian intelligence services. The Defense, State, Commerce, Treasury, and Homeland Security departments were all compromised by the highly sophisticated attack, as the New York Times reports.
The U.S. government didn’t detect the attack, until a private cybersecurity company, FireEye, alerted them to the matter in recent weeks. An IT network software provider unwittingly pushed out malware through an update to about 18,000 users, including at federal agencies. “It will take years to know for certain which networks the Russians control and which ones they just occupy,” Trump’s former homeland security advisor, Tom Bossert wrote.
Incoming President-elect Biden “has to assume that communications about this matter are being read by Russia and assume that any government data or email could be falsified,” Bossert warned.
Wilkie in the hot seat. Top veterans advocacy groups are calling on Trump to fire Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie, following the release of an internal watchdog report that criticized how he handled a sexual assault allegation last year. The watchdog report accused Wilkie and other political appointees at the department of working behind-the-scenes to discredit the sexual assault survivor, a congressional aide who said she was groped and verbally abused by a veteran at a VA medical center last year.
Wilkie dismissed the report’s conclusions and said the watchdog’s report was “more dedicated to scoring political points than improving the department.”
Over the moon. A Chinese lunar capsule carrying the first fresh rock samples in over four decades returned to Earth on Thursday, in a major achievement for Beijing’s growing space program—and a reminder to the United States that its top geopolitical rivals are increasing their activities in space. Flashback to a 2019 speech: Vice President Mike Pence declared, “We’re in a space race today, just as we were in the 1960s, and the stakes are even higher,” adding that China had “ambition to seize the lunar strategic high ground.”
Speaking of which, administration officials’ newest space policy document, released on Wednesday, outlines a roadmap for nuclear-powered rockets and reactors on the moon, as Breaking Defense reports, reflecting grander long-term ambitions for U.S. activities in space. (Officials stressed that this had nothing to do with building nuclear weapons in space.)
Movers and Shakers
Fresh energy. Biden is selecting former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm to be his energy secretary. Arun Majumdar, a scientist who led the Energy Department’s cutting-edge research agency under Obama, is in the running to be picked as deputy secretary, the Washington Post reports. If confirmed, Granholm and Majumdar would be in charge of maintaining the United States’ massive nuclear arms arsenal and network of national laboratories.
Stacking the boards. Trump is tapping more allies to advisory boards and commissions in the waning days of his administration, naming Andrew Giuliani, the son of his personal lawyer and a White House aide, to the United States Holocaust Memorial Council. Trump also reconstituted the Defense Policy Board this week, naming allies such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Air Force fighter pilot Scott O’Grady to the panel.
Got a tip about recent Trump administration firings or the transition? Get in touch with Jack (jack.detsch@foreignpolicy.com) or Robbie (robbie.gramer@foreignpolicy.com).
Quote of the Week
“We have been tortured, killed, and forced to flee our homes. But we are not broken. We have not lost our hope and will for change. Even if we had the chance to go back in time, to the time prior to our revolution, to the time prior to the killing and torturing of our families, loved ones, and hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, we would still choose to break our cage of fear that has locked us for over 40 years.”
—Omar Alshogre, a Syrian protester, former prisoner, and refugee, reflecting on the 10-year anniversary of the Arab Spring
Foreign Policy Recommends
Bolton on Trump’s Morocco-Israel deal. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, unleashed on his former boss for agreeing to recognize the Western Sahara, a disputed territory, as sovereign Moroccan territory in exchange for Morocco recognizing Israel. “This is what happens when dilettantes handle U.S. diplomacy, and it is sadly typical of Trump’s nakedly transactional approach during his tenure,” Bolton writes in Foreign Policy.
The Week Ahead
Today marks the 10th anniversary of the beginning of the Arab Spring protests.
The U.S. Senate is set to go home for the holidays on Friday, though Congress is clearing last-minute hurdle—including a second coronavirus stimulus package and Trump’s threat to veto the Pentagon’s authorization act.
Kyrgyzstan is set to hold fresh parliamentary elections on Sunday, after massive street protests earlier this year.
Odds and Ends
The Army needs your help. U.S. Army Europe had things more or less figured out when it was just handling Europe—with a clear, if simple, slogan: “Europe Strong.” But last month, the Pentagon merged the Army’s Europe and Africa commands, meaning the newly formed U.S. Army Europe-Africa (or USAEUR-AF, for the acronym-inclined) needs a new slogan.
Have a good idea? The Army wants to hear from you. It will be accepting pitches on a new slogan through Feb. 1. Slogan ideas can be submitted here.
That’s it for today.
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