Known for his historical accuracy in Nevada's presidential calls, Jon Ralston, a political commentator and CEO of The Indy, has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win the Silver State over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Recent polling suggests Harris is edging ahead in what remains a close race, yet Ralston predicts the vice president will ultimately secure Nevada and its six Electoral College votes.
For Ralston, this cycle feels like a "Unicorn Election" due to unusual voting patterns, with Republicans making rare early and mail ballot pushes - the GOP currently holds a notable advantage in early in-person voting, largely due to its mobilization of the base, he said. Harris's narrow advantage, he predicts, will depend heavily on Nevada's substantial nonpartisan voter base, which Ralston believes could lean Democratic, especially among women galvanized by issues like abortion rights and social policy.
Ralston, who has never missed a Nevada presidential call, explained his methodology, which includes combining early voting data, historical trends, and insider insights. He predicts a slim margin for Harris, forecasting 48.5% for Harris to Trump's 48.2%. He credits Nevada Democrats' strategy of recruiting new independent voters aligned with their party as a key factor, alongside strong Democratic turnout in Clark County.
In the Senate race, Ralston anticipates incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen will win re-election against GOP challenger Sam Brown. Despite Republican efforts, he notes that Brown struggled with limited fundraising and a late start, which allowed Rosen to take a lead early in the campaign. Ralston expects Rosen's victory could be declared on Election Night, with her winning approximately 50% of the vote.
For the House races, Ralston expects Democratic incumbents in three southern Nevada districts—Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee—to retain their seats, though he projects narrower margins due to GOP-leaning early votes. However, he believes final mail-in counts from Clark County should secure their leads.
In the Nevada legislature, Ralston foresees a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate, though he projects a slim margin in the Assembly, likely falling short of a supermajority. He also expects Shelley Berkley to win Las Vegas's mayoral race.
Ralston also said that Nevada's ballot-counting could be slow, possibly delaying the final call well beyond Election Night, as the state accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day, allowing mail ballots to potentially alter the outcome days later.
Despite his confident calls for the 2024 elections, Ralston cautioned against drawing early conclusions, noting his own careful back-and-forth over these projections due to the race's unpredictable nature.
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