The World Series begins Friday with the Houston Astros hosting the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1.
Both teams enter the series on impressive runs, increasing the level of intrigue for what might happen. The betting favorite to win, Houston swept its way through the postseason to the World Series. Barely outdone, the Phillies made the playoffs as a Wild Card before sweeping that round, and losing just a single game in the NLDS and NLCS each.
With this unlikely World Series about to commence, it’s time to look at my top six MVP candidates and their odds to win. Astros dominate the list, because Houston is favored to win, but a couple Phillies made the list too.
6
Justin Verlander (+1000)
Verlander’s odds are among the best to win MVP, but that’s more because of the likely opportunities he’ll have as Houston’s ace than it is because of anything he’s done in the past. In seven career starts in the World Series, Verlander has an 0-5 record and his teams have only won once. Just three of those seven games were considered quality starts.
But the likely AL Cy Young winner is coming off a fantastic regular season, and he recovered from a rough LDS against the Mariners to pitch a gem against the Yankees in the LCS. So he has some momentum on his side.
5
Jeremy Peña (+1800)
Peña had a fantastic LCS series against the Yankees, earning himself the ALCS MVP award. He went 6-of-17 at the plate with two home runs, two doubles and four RBI, including three in the closeout game. He’s been held without a hit in just one of seven games this postseason, hitting .303 with a .324 OBP.
He’s hot at just the right time, and if he can carry a hot stick into the World Series, he’ll have a good chance to cash some of the longer odds on this list.
4
Phillies SP Zack Wheeler (+1800)
If the Phillies are going to win this series as underdogs, they’re going to need their ace to play like one. Wheeler was their best pitcher in the regular season, and he’s been even better in four postseason starts, dropping his 2.82 ERA down to 1.78 in the playoffs.
Wheeler has given the Phillies at least six innings of work in every start this postseason, including a seven-inning, one-hit shutout in his first start against the Padres in the LCS. Even more, the Astros haven’t seen him much, so he’ll have an added advantage.
3
Yordan Álvarez (+600)
The odds favor Álvarez to come away with the MVP, but he drops on this list simply because of recent struggles. He’s went hitless in three of seven games this postseason, including an 0-for-7 dud against the Mariners. In his last five games, he’s just 3-of-21 with one RBI. His World Series track record isn’t great either.
Still, Álvarez will have plenty opportunity to drive in runs hitting third behind José Altuve and Peña, and he did come alive a bit in Houston’s last game, notching two of the previously mentioned three hits, driving in that one run and reaching base another time on a walk.
2
Bryce Harper (+700)
Harper would be first on this list if only I believed more in Philadelphia’s chances to win the series. He’s been on an absolute tear this postseason, winning the NLCS MVP award after going 8-of-20 with five extra-base hits, including two homers, and five RBI.
Harper was even better in the LDS, going 10-of-23 with three home runs and six RBI. He’s without a question the hottest player coming into the World Series, but he only wins MVP and the Phillies can find a way to win.
1
Alex Bregman (+1000)
Bregman gives you a little bit of everything when it comes to what you want in an MVP candidate. His odds are long enough to provide some great value, he’ll have plenty of opportunity as Houston’s clean-up hitter, he’s one of the Astros’ hottest batters this postseason, and he has plenty of World Series experience with a little success sprinkled in.
The biggest worry with Bregman is how bad he was in last year’s World Series, where he went 2-of-21 with seven strikeouts.
