We’re less than 48 hours away from the first kickoff of the 2022 college football season and about a week away from Labor Day Weekend’s full slate of games.
Obviously, the College Football Playoff and its selection day are still several months away, but that’s not stopping us from taking a way-too-early look at what teams have the best shot at making the final four.
Who knows who will actually make the playoff come December, and nothing is a sure thing in this chaotic and unpredictable sport. But at this late stage of the preseason, the teams with the best playoff chances right now are some pretty familiar CFP regulars.
So ahead of Week 0, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Thursday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
The four teams with the best preseason College Football Playoff chances are hardly shocking
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Playoff: 83.1 percent
- National championship game: 49.8 percent
- Win championship: 27.3 percent
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
- Playoff: 79.7 percent
- National championship game: 52.2 percent
- Win championship: 30.1 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs
- Playoff: 75.2 percent
- National championship game: 44.5 percent
- Win championship: 24.3 percent
4. Clemson Tigers
- Playoff: 58.2 percent
- National championship game: 25.0 percent
- Win championship: 10.4 percent
The top-4 teams here are hardly a surprise because even this early, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson are often up there.
But the Buckeyes having a better shot at the playoff than the Crimson Tide is a bit surprising — not that there’s a huge difference there. Couple Ohio State’s greater than 80 percent chance to make the playoff with its 73.7 percent chance to win the Big Ten, and it certainly seems like ESPN’s Playoff Predictor expects the Buckeyes to return to dominating its conference. That point is made even clearer by Michigan — which earned its first playoff berth last season before losing to eventual national champ Georgia — having just a 17.6 percent chance to return to the playoff and only an 8.2 percent chance to win the Big Ten.
With both Alabama and Georgia in the mix, it suggests the algorithm anticipates a similar situation to 2021. Last season, the Bulldogs entered the SEC championship game undefeated, while the Crimson Tide had one loss. Alabama ended up winning the conference title, both teams had one loss and the playoff committee picked two SEC squads.
And although there’s a notable drop-off from No. 3 Georgia’s chances to No. 4 Clemson’s, the fact that the Tigers are still among the top-4 teams means there’s an anticipated resurgence after a 10-3 conference championship-less “down” year by their standards.
Here's a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Playoff: 17.9 percent
- National championship game: 5.9 percent
- Win championship: 1.7 percent
6. Michigan Wolverines
- Playoff: 17.6 percent
- National championship game: 5.3 percent
- Win championship: 1.5 percent
7. Texas Longhorns
- Playoff: 17.4 percent
- National championship game: 5.4 percent
- Win championship: 1.6 percent
8. Oklahoma Sooners
- Playoff: 11.3 percent
- National championship game: 3.1 percent
- Win championship: 0.9 percent
9. Miami Hurricanes
- Playoff: 8.8 percent
- National championship game: 2.2 percent
- Win championship: 0.5 percent
10. Utah Utes
- Playoff: 7.2 percent
- National championship game: 1.6 percent
- Win championship: 0.4 percent
