Tony Blair always had reservations about Scottish devolution even though he campaigned vigorously in favour of a Yes vote in the 1997 referendum.
As an English chap Blair never understood the deep passion among acolytes of the late John Smith, his predecessor as Labour leader, for a Scottish Parliament. Blair's expensive education at Fettes, the Eton of Scotland, did nothing to help.
A key moment for Blair came when Baroness Smith of Gilmorehill, the widow of the late Labour leader John Smith, told the future prime minister that he should create a Scottish Parliament if he wanted to live up to her husband's legacy. Lady Smith repeated her husband's claim that a Scottish Parliament represented the "settled will" of the Scottish people.
Blair delivered, though there were a series of internal Labour rows in the run up to the 1997 Westminster election, not least when he likened a future Scottish Parliament to a parish council.
Blair had two fears about Scottish devolution:
• It would inevitably loosen Scotland's links with the rest of the United Kingdon. Blair never quite bought the famous line by the former Labour MP Tam Dalyell, a prominent opponent of devolution, who said:
Devolution is a motorway without exits to independence.
But Blair shared the concerns of sceptics such as the Labour trade minister Brian Wilson. He never quite signed up to the famous declaration by George Robertson, then shadow Scottish secretary, who said in 1995:
Devolution will kill nationalism stone dead.
Blair thought that devolution could destabilise the delicate balance of relations within the United Kingdom. He was one of the first to spot one of the greatest threats to the Union – English resentment at the favourable funding arrangements for Scotland under the Barnett Formula.
• It would entrench Labour in Scotland which embodied for him the loathsome Old Labour which had made the party unelectable in Middle England. This is why Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who were the driving forces behind the creation of the parliament, agreed on a proportional voting system that was designed to guarantee that Labour would find it difficult to form a majority.
There was meant to be another benefit – the SNP would also never be able to form a majority. This would mean that the nationalists would struggle to hold a referendum on independence.
In the wake of the SNP's stunning breakthrough the former prime minister may allow himself a small "told you so" moment, though that sort of behaviour is not usually within his nature. A referendum on independence is closer than ever before, though Alex Salmond will proceed with care because a vote for the SNP does not necessarily equate to support for leaving the UK.
Blair's only hope will be that the more proportional voting system, which deprived Labour of a majority at Holyrood even when it dominated the political landscape, will also deprive the SNP of a majority. But at lunchtime today that is looking uncertain.
Whatever the final result at Holyrood one thing is clear. Scotland is already detaching itself from the rest of the UK, as my friend and former Herald political editor Benedict Brogan blogged today. One of the strongest examples of the parting of the ways was the role the UK Labour party played in this year's Scottish election: none.
