Tommy DeVito and Patrick Mahomes are very different quarterbacks. One is a two-time MVP, two-time Super Bowl champion and arguably the most recognizable active quarterback in the world — even if his tight end’s girlfiend doesn’t make him the most famous player on his own team. The other is an undrafted rookie thrust into the spotlight by circumstance only to build himself into a sensation thanks to better-than-expected play and a zeitgeist with nothing but fond memories for The Sopranos and the first few seasons of Jersey Shore.
These two also had very different experiences in Week 15, but each winds up on the list of gross quarterbacks. Mahomes was perfectly fine in a 10-point win over the New England Patriots and occasionally, catastrophically, led into danger by his teammates. DeVito, hamstrung by awful blocking because that’s a key tenet of the New York Giants’ philosophy, plummeted back to earth in a touchdown-less 24-6 loss to the the New Orleans Saints.
Those were two frustrating games, but were DeVito or Mahomes truly the most disappointing passers this Sunday? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging each underwhelming performances was. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 15 EPA against their 2023 adjusted average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the 15th Sunday of the 2023 season.
6
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -7.1
Week 15 EPA: -12.8
Difference: 5.7 points worse
It’s not that Wilson was good for nearly 13 points of production for the opposite team Sunday — though that’s certainly notable. It’s that he did this all in less than two quarters of play before leaving the game due to dehydration and/or a head injury and being replaced by Trevor Siemian. His -0.8 EPA per play meant that every time he took a snap and *didn’t* hand the ball off, he was effectively giving the Miami Dolphins a point.
Defense at WORK 😤
RT to #ProBowlVote Christian Wilkins + @zachsieler + @astronaut pic.twitter.com/8HarM1sGeO
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 17, 2023
Wilson dropped back to pass 15 times. These plays resulted in -11 net yards.
5
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 8.1
Week 15 EPA: 1.9
Difference: 6.2 points worse
Mahomes is technically worse than Wilson this week thanks to the game of expectations. We all knew the Jets’ quarterback, whomever it was, would be garbage. Mahomes, on the other hand, in need of a big win against a familiar opponent, was just sorta “a guy” against the New England Patriots.
Of course, it didn’t help that Kadarius Toney left him on the hook for -4.6 points of expected value by handing New England one of its easiest interceptions of the year.
Kadarius Toney bobbles a perfect throw from Mahomes and it leads to an interception
The Chiefs need to cut this man ASAP pic.twitter.com/Rj279fdHI7
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) December 17, 2023
Mahomes finished his day with two touchdown passes and two interceptions. He was perfectly fine against a bad opponent. But he’s normally great, so he winds up on the list — thanks, in large part, to the most garbage of his landfill-caliber wideouts.
4
Tommy DeVito, New York Giants
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -5.4
Week 15 EPA: -13.3
Difference: 7.9 points worse
DeVito had a rough outing in New Orleans, reminding us all that he is, in fact, an undrafted rookie thrown into the fire for one of the league’s most anemic offenses. He missed a chunk of Sunday’s game in the concussion protocol and was, ultimately, less effective than veteran backup Tyrod Taylor in a small sample size.
DeVito struggled with the Saints’ pressure all afternoon. He was sacked seven times on 41 dropbacks and hit eight more. He lost 57 yards via sack, more than offsetting the value he brought to the game with his legs (36 yards on four scrambles). With little help elsewhere on the ground — Saquon Barkley had 14 rushing yards on nine carries — the Giants were left to sputter to a pair of field goals and nothing else in a 28-6 loss.
3
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 0.9
Week 15 EPA: -13.9
Difference: 14.8 points worse
Let’s start with the positive: this was a great play that puts everything Justin Fields brings to the table on full display.
Just(in) Fields things ¯_(ツ)_/¯
📺: #CHIvsCLE on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/eXQRqZEXEM— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023
That gave the Bears a 7-0 lead early in the second quarter. It was also the only touchdown their offense would generate. Fields eschewed the screen-heavy attacks of the prior few weeks in order to test his luck downfield. The results were unfortunate. He completed only two of 14 passes to make it at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Those throws also led to a pair of interceptions, though both came on Hail Marys, the second of which came tantalizingly close to flipping this game’s script.
here's how close Darnell Mooney was to making a ridiculous catch to beat the Browns. absolutely brutal pic.twitter.com/eeNkVTVZDG
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 17, 2023
Those Hail Mary interceptions were only responsible for -1.2 EPA, which highlights just how inefficient Fields was elsewhere. He needed 40 passes to throw for only 166 yards (19 completions, a 47.5 percent completion rate). He fumbled twice, though the Bears recovered each one. He was limited to only 30 rushing yards on seven carries.
This is all brutal to Fields’ hopes of convincing Chicago he can be the team’s quarterback of the future. It’s similarly tough on the Bears’ hopes of dealing their young quarterback for premium draft assets next spring. Fields had been on a heater coming into Week 15; he fell off hard against the Browns’ smothering defense.
2
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -3.7
Week 15 EPA: -18.9
Difference: 15.2 points worse
Was Flacco, statistically, Week 15’s most disappointing quarterback? Yes. Did he also recover from his tailspin in time to engineer a fourth quarter rally to turn a 10-point deficit into a three-point win? Also yes!
Joe loves going to 85!#CHIvsCLE on FOX & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/UpUTGCqibn
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 17, 2023
This was the opposite of his first game in Cleveland, where the wheels came off late to turn a 17-17 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams into a 36-17 defeat. Flacco was a problem early in this game. He threw three interceptions and fumbled once. His first two interceptions led to Chicago touchdowns and the third came on the first play of a drive that started at the Bears’ 20-yard line. He is, without dispute, the reason why the Browns so badly needed a fourth quarter comeback.
Defense goin' crazy rn#ProBowlVote + @dreamchaserTy10 pic.twitter.com/2uQIAma7As
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 17, 2023
Flacco finished his day with 374 yards, his highest passing output since 2018. He also was arguably responsible for at least -17 points — or possibly -21 — via interceptions alone. It’s great he was able to turn things around, but hoooo buddy, things were grim for a minute there.
1
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 11.4
Week 15 EPA: -6.5
Difference: 17.9 points worse
A rainy Orchard Park, NY was anathema to Prescott’s MVP hopes. The Cowboy quarterback suffered through his worst game of 2023 as Dallas stumbled to a 31-10 beatdown that wasn’t as close as the final score suggests. Prescott’s offense was out-gained by the Bills’ starting tailback and, well, that’s arguably the nicest thing you can say about this effort.
The weather curtailed Prescott’s downfield throws and altered the ones he attempted. Only six of his passes traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. These heaves yielded as many completions to Buffalo defenders as his own wideouts — though that interception came on fourth down, so it wasn’t exactly damaging.
His struggles came on a day where Brock Purdy recorded 18.2 EPA in a 45-29 blowout over the Arizona Cardinals. Purdy threw for 242 yards and four touchdowns in an effort that should push him back into the still-too-early lead when it comes to MVP voting.
