If experts' forecasts hold true, the 2023 Padres will get fatigued from circling the basepaths.
ESPN rates the lineup as Major League Baseball's best, citing four MVP candidates and eight starters who should finish in the 70th percentile or better in on base plus slugging percentage.
The crew's best traits? Everything, writes ESPN's Bradford Doolittle. Worst traits? Nothing.
Over at Fangraphs.com, similar dominance is forecast. Juan Soto, per the number-crunching Steamer system, will amass 7.1 win shares to edge out Yankees star Aaron Judge for MLB honors. The model foresees 32 home runs, a .430 on-base rate and an MLB-best walk rate (20.3 percent) from the lefty Soto and renewed stardom from Fernando Tatis, Jr. via a majors-best .566 slug rate and a Padres-best 35 home runs.
For newcomer Xavier Bogaerts, the projection is 4.8 win shares, placing the shortstop 19th in the big leagues but just fourth in the Padres' galaxy of stars.
No wonder Manny Machado can't stop smiling.
Not only did Machado gain a $170-million contract extension this week by leveraging potential free agency, he has welcomed three fellow MVP candidates who, with the exception of Soto's two-month stay, weren't with him last season.
From Machado, who carried last year's uneven offense that nevertheless finished a whisker above league average in runs, Fangraphs.com envisions 30 home runs and 4.9 win shares, 18th in MLB.
Spring-training optimism is fun. But baseball is known to spread oil slicks ahead of souped-up offenses.
If Tatis were to suffer another severe injury, who would be surprised?
Bogaerts' new home ballpark is less favorable than his former home, Fenway Park. The same holds for Matt Carpenter, a lefty who likely won't match his 1.082 home slug rate compiled last year in Yankee Stadium.
We've been burned before, older Padres fans might say. Indeed they have. Hence their endearing dry humor and humility.
Two counterpoints: the lengthy track records of the Big Four, Jake Cronenworth and Carpenter make for San Diego's most promising offense since at least 1999, and the formerly brutal hitting conditions at Petco Park are far less daunting than before the ballpark's outfield was shrunk, mercifully, in 2013.
If "Old Petco's" conditions still prevailed, make no mistake: they would pose a major threat, even to this Padres lineup loaded with stars. And that assumes the Padres would've been able to overcome the ballpark's reputation and import star talent.
"Old Petco" lengthened swings, leading to easy outs. It drained hitters' confidence. Particularly for lefties, it was punitive.
No less than Barry Bonds deemed the conditions "not baseball" and "baseball-proof."
Albert Pujols and Jeff Bagwell began home run trots there, only to scream expletives after seeing the ball caught.
Khalil Greene stopped taking batting practice on the field. After lefty slugger Brian Giles went from the Pirates to his hometown team, he scarcely could hit a home run.
Ryan Ludwick, who arrived during the 2010 playoff push, blamed his swoon on the ballpark getting in his head. Ex-Cardinals teammate Jim Edmonds could relate.
Other than Adrian Gonzalez, whose Padres career belongs among the franchise's top-five, Old Petco overwhelmed or reduced almost every Padres lefty and regular.
The ballpark likely changed Anthony Rizzo's career. After the Padres got young Rizzo for Gonzalez, the great Tony Gwynn expressed severe doubt the lefty pull hitter would maintain a good swing as a Padre.
Rizzo then became a star after the Cubs brought him to cozy Wrigley Field.
So, as it has turned out, it was the right move a decade ago by Padres owners Peter Seidler and Ron Fowler to shrink the ballpark's outfield and shorten the right-field wall.
Running a business, they smartly fostered a more entertaining game.
Petco Park shouldn't be able to wreck this year's offense. Not just the reduced acreage but the East Village's surrounding development is helping hitters, say Padres veterans who've noticed improved carry for several years. Drives go much farther in batting practice, said former Padres hitting coach Merv Rettenmund.
Righty slugger Luke Voit wasn't a fan of the Padres' home, likening it to a hitters' graveyard soon after he was traded last August. Petco Park in fact still favors pitchers. But it is fair to sluggers. It was 16th of 30 in home run-ballpark factor last year, per ESPN.
The most talented offense the Padres have assembled in decades can thank Seidler (and former CEO Tom Garfinkel) for the reconfigured ballfield.
In contrast to 2004-12, when night games further enlarged Petco, California's only Death Valley is in the Mojave Desert.
This offense shouldn't go dry for long.
