INTEREST RATE DECISION DAY
There have been interest rate decisions before, and there will be interest rate decisions again — but boy oh boy does the one today come with a lot of expectation.
At 2.30pm AEDT today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will inform the country whether it is holding the cash rate at 4.35%, cutting it, or — you never know — raising it.
The Australian Financial Review reminds us the rate sits at a 13-year high having been raised 13 times since May 2002, “marking the fastest tightening cycle in a generation”.
You’ll no doubt be sick of hearing that many, many analysts believe this is the month the RBA announces a cut, with the Albanese government mighty keen on being able to use such news to properly kickstart its election campaign.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been saying this week the Labor government will still announce new cost of living measures ahead of the election (due before May 17) even if does get the news it wants and rates are cut.
“The cost of living has been the number one focus of this government. And that will continue to be the case, no matter what the Reserve Bank decides independently tomorrow,” he said on Monday, noting cost of living pressures include more than just mortgage repayments.
On the other side of the aisle, Coalition leader Peter Dutton has declared he hopes for a rate cut but said it won’t placate the anger at the cost of living crisis: “It’s the price of groceries, and it’s the price of electricity, and the price of gas. All of them are up by [Prime Minister Anthony] Albanese, and the worse thing is that in a Labor-Greens minority government, the prices will go even higher.”
The Australian reckons Dutton signalling his support for a rate cut means RBA governor Michele Bullock would be left “politically friendless” if she keeps the cash rate at 4.35%.
The paper yesterday reported Chalmers had been telling colleagues not to speculate on the RBA decision in an effort to manage expectations and defend the government from claims it is trying to pressure the bank. Today it reports Labor backbenchers have been calling for a reduction of up to 50 basis points “while urging board members to get off their computer screens and ‘into the streets and see what is going on in the real Australia’”.
You’ll have noticed Dutton’s reference to a “Labor-Greens minority government” in the quote above. We flagged yesterday that the polling is coming thick and fast as the days tick down to the election, with the majority still pointing to a minority government of some flavour.
As I mention almost every time, polling always comes with a healthy dose of scepticism (it’s not had the best track record in recent years). This morning Guardian Australia brings us its latest survey which suggests the two major parties are tied on the two-party-preferred-plus metric.
The site says both the PM and the opposition leader have seen their approval ratings drop recently, stating: “Both major party leaders have spent the summer conducting softer public appearances such as podcasts and ramping up their social media efforts, but as the election nears, Australians seem to be slowly turning off Albanese and Dutton.”
Talking of podcasts, the Nine papers have attempted to analyse the medium by looking at the viewer count of Dutton’s hour-long podcast interview in December.
“Peter Dutton’s interview with Australian diver Sam Fricker bombed on YouTube, receiving only 4,600 views despite the Olympian’s 5.8 million subscribers, showing the pitfalls for politicians trying to use alternative media to reach voters,” the papers state. Although, just because people didn’t watch a podcast interview on YouTube doesn’t mean people didn’t listen to it… or am I missing something?
Anyway, The Australian also has more polling this morning, claiming less than a quarter of voters believe inflation would have been lower under a Coalition government, a central part of the opposition’s pitch to the electorate.
Elsewhere, the paper reckons Albanese is preparing to launch his reelection bid immediately after the Western Australia election on March 8 (in which Labor Premier Roger Cook is widely expected to be victorious).
A bit like how every other publication is hedging its bets, the report states: “Labor, Coalition, Greens, Climate 200 and minor party strategists are pencilling in April 12 or April 5 election dates”. Although it does go on to say “It is now firming that Albanese will press the button on an April 12 election. Labor MPs are understood to have been told to prepare for an election to be called anytime between March 3 and March 11.”
Finally in election news, Guardian Australia is keen to highlight that Dutton still hasn’t detailed exactly how his nuclear power plan would work even though, as all the above points out, the election ain’t far away. The site also reports he didn’t respond yesterday when pressed on whether the Coalition had modelled the cost of a nuclear insurance scheme.
Oh, and the numerous places are still dissecting the 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, with Samantha Maiden at News.com.au and others drawing attention to Dutton’s quip that he’d had “had 20 vodka Red Bulls” on his first date with his wife.
EUROPEAN LEADERS’ EMERGENCY MEETING
In world news, European leaders have met in Paris to discuss the war in Ukraine.
The backdrop is obviously US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin believing they can decide the fate of Ukraine without informing anyone else.
Before heading to Saudi Arabia for talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that he sees no role for Europe in any peace negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, the BBC reports.
“I don’t know what they would be doing at the negotiating table. If they are going to ‘beg for’ some cunning ideas about freezing the conflict — while … they really mean continuing the war — then why invite them [Europeans] there?” Lavrov said.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has posted a video on X in the last few hours saying: “If there is a peace deal, and everyone wants a peace deal, it’s got to be a lasting peace not just a pause for Putin to come again.”
Writing in The Telegraph (British) newspaper he also wrote: “The UK is ready to play a leading role in accelerating work on security guarantees for Ukraine. This includes further support for Ukraine’s military, where the UK has already committed £3 billion a year until at least 2030. But it also means being ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary.”
CNN reported French President Emmanuel Macron was set to hold a 20-minute phone call with Trump ahead of the emergency Paris talks.
The American broadcaster also quotes a Ukrainian official as saying the country would not be represented at Tuesday’s talks in Saudi Arabia, adding: “Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy, discussed a ‘dual track’ set of negotiations and will be in Kyiv this week”.
The New York Times says Rubio is already in Riyadh and is expected to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later.
The paper added: “Mr Rubio, who flew to Riyadh from Israel, was expected to press the Saudi leadership to propose a vision for postwar Gaza.”
Rubio is travelling to Saudi Arabia with Mike Waltz, the US national security adviser, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy.
Elsewhere in Trump updates, many publications have flagged that the US president has asked the Supreme Court to allow him to fire a government lawyer who leads a watchdog agency. On Sunday, Trump “filed an emergency appeal to the country’s highest court to rule on whether he can fire Hampton Dellinger, head of the US Office of Special Counsel,” the BBC reports.
The NYT says the court is expected to act in the coming days and says the filing “amounts to a challenge to a foundational precedent that said Congress can limit the president’s power to fire leaders of independent agencies”.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is trying to rehire hundreds of workers who were abruptly fired from nuclear weapons programs last week, the ABC reports.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
With Tropical Cyclone Zelia having dissipated after hitting Western Australia last week (clearly not “lighter” news, but bear with me), the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) naming of cyclones has returned to the start of the alphabet.
OK, no issue there, I hear you say.
Well, it turns out that the next cyclone was due to be named… Anthony, and if you hadn’t heard there’s apparently about to be an election called where a certain Anthony is set to feature rather prominently.
With the headlines writing themselves, the AAP reports BoM has decided to skip Anthony for now and go with the next A on the list — Alfred.
“When a name matches a prominent person of the time, we reorder to the next name starting with that same letter to avoid any confusion,” a bureau spokesperson revealed.
So while Tropical Cyclone Anthony might not be hitting Australia anytime soon, if the polls are to be believed the prime minister might be heading into a storm of his own regardless.
Say What?
I didn’t write anything because I didn’t think I’d win! I do want to share this with my wife, who didn’t come because she didn’t think I’d win!
Jesse Eisenberg
The actor and director won the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay for his film, A Real Pain. The Oscars are now less than two weeks away.
CRIKEY RECAP
Many artists are now calling on Creative Australia to revert to its original position and reinstall Sabsabi and Dagostino as Australian representatives at Venice. There’s a reckoning due within Creative Australia: how could the organisation undermine its integrity and independence in this manner? To make matters worse, the agency has announced a review, not of the board’s backflip but of the selection process via which Sabsabi was chosen. The damage inflicted is not just to Creative Australia, but to the standing of artists in Australia.
Such attacks aren’t going away. Art is a front in the culture war globally. A resurgent right has long seen art and artists as emblematic of a “woke” agenda, worthy of punishment and submission. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán has appointed right-wing directors to theatres, and encouraged ultranationalist art exhibitions at the Hungarian National Gallery. Donald Trump recently fired the board of the Kennedy Centre and appointed himself as chair, with the storied Washington Arts Centre expected to radically revise its programming choices, cancelling shows considered suspect.
Chandler must be impressed by her handiwork. We initially concluded this article by saying more questions on the political leanings of grant-supported artists are sure to follow. Indeed, this morning Chandler has signalled the need for a major rethink of how taxpayer money is spent in the arts sector heading into the federal election, saying, “Taxpayers should not be paying for what is essentially a program of political activism masquerading as art and culture.”
The cowardly betrayal of Sabsabi will only embolden Coalition senators, News Limited journalists and other culture warriors to further scrutinise funding allocations and appointments.
“Could have been better handled”.
That’s one way — editor Ben English’s way — to describe The Daily Telegraph’s effort to prompt an ugly racial incident as part of a long-planned “Undercover Jew” story.
It’s also apt for the still-unfolding revelations of the debacle at the ABC surrounding the sacking of Antoinette Lattouf in response to a campaign falsely accusing her of antisemitism by pro-Israel lobbyists. That campaign was highly effective, with complaints bounced around the top of the ABC, from chair Ita Buttrose and managing director David Anderson on down, resulting in a sacking that had a “step missing”, as Anderson himself admitted. That step being a basic requirement of natural justice.
Both events typify why, for all the posturing, we should ditch the pretence we care about “social cohesion”.
There is much, much more in what counts as a tell-all interview — although Coppins feels that on some topics James is almost protective of his father. Perhaps the most poignant moment comes when one of Rupert’s lawyers quotes from King Lear: “How sharper than a serpent’s tooth it is to have a thankless child.”
Coppins writes: James and Kathryn found it darkly amusing. Did Rupert and his lawyers not realise that the famous line uttered by the mad king is aimed at Cordelia, who turns out to be Lear’s only honest daughter? ‘The whole point is that the crazy old man doesn’t know that Cordelia is telling him the truth,’ Kathryn told me. Her husband studied a spot on the table in front of him.
As the second Trump presidency slides towards dictatorship, with the commander-in-chief now declaring himself above the law, the point is well made. The divisions inside the Murdoch family now appear irreconcilable. As Liz herself told Rupert: “You are completely disenfranchising me and my siblings. You’ve blown a hole in the family.” According to the Times story, Gorman’s verdict in Nevada is unlikely to be overturned. If the decision is upheld it will leave Rupert and Lachlan in a bind. Either Lachlan will have to find the money to buy out his siblings, or he and Rupert will be forced to sell. At least for now, the price is right.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Pope Francis’ hospital treatment dealing with ‘complex clinical’ condition, Vatican says (CNN)
‘I like what he stands for’: Hanson says she did try to woo Joyce for One Nation (The Sydney Morning Herald)
Surge in private school enrolments amid fears of ‘full blown flight’ from public system (Guardian Australia)
The Aussie trade hit list that Trump may use to cut a deal on tariffs (AFR)
Where the Oscar race stands after two tumultuous weeks (The New York Times) ($)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Emperor Trump is even now scorching a path towards Iran — Mark Urban (The Sunday Times): The potential outcomes are far from clear, with both Ukraine and European allies insisting they must be part of the process. The possibility remains real that President Zelenskyy might simply refuse the terms Trump and Putin offer.
The coming months will be key with Iran, too, with credible sources suggesting Trump has given the Islamic republic three or four months to agree to a nuclear deal. If that fails, the suggestion is the United States might join with Israel in striking Iranian nuclear facilities this summer.
Arguably the greatest uncertainty surrounds America’s most important foreign policy relationship, the one with China. Early sparring by the two sides over tariffs has been inconclusive. Here, too, it seems that Trump wants to bring on some kind of grand negotiation but Beijing has the strongest hand of any of his adversaries and will have its own ideas about the art of the deal.
DOGE’s race to the bottom — Brian Barrett (WIRED): Every day brings fresh incursions. Three weeks ago the United States believed in humanitarian aid. It helped people who had been ripped off by big corporations. It funded the infrastructure necessary to make America a beacon of scientific innovation. Now the United States Agency for International Development is gutted, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is on ice, and National Institutes of Health grants are handcuffed. So much for all that.
These are spreadsheet cruelties, executed with a click. The loss of real peoples’ jobs and lives — yes, despite what X-famous conspiracy theorists will tell you, USAID saved lives — all immaterial compared to the pursuit of a tighter balance sheet.
Three weeks ago, a 19-year-old who calls himself “Big Balls” online didn’t have access to government personnel records and more. A 25-year-old with a closet full of racist tweets hadn’t gotten the keys to Treasury systems that pay out $5.45 trillion each year. Elon Musk hadn’t turned the Oval Office into a romper room for his 4-year-old son.
The speed is strategy, of course, flooding the zone so that neither the media nor the courts can keep pace. Lawsuits and court orders move on a different timescale than this slash-and-burn approach. (At this pace, DOGE will have tapped into every last government server long before the Supreme Court even has a chance to weigh in.) But it’s also reflexive. The first order of business in a corporate takeover is to slash costs as quickly as possible. If you can’t fire people, offer them buyouts. If they won’t take the buyouts, find a way to fire them anyway. Keep cutting until you hit bone.
