Today’s sharp fall in the rate of inflation - down from 2.2% to 1.7% in September - could be the best possible early Christmas present for home owners and first time buyers.
While a second cut in interest rates from the Bank of England in November - following the August cut of 0.25% - was already widely pencilled in by the City, now a third in December is increasingly likely.
Two more reductions would bring the Bank’s benchmark rate down to 4.5% immediately easing the pressure on millions of homeowners with mortgages on tracker or other variable rates.
More importantly, expectations of a faster pace of rate cuts from Threadneedle Street will allow mortgage lenders to continue reducing their prices on the fixed rate deals taken out by the vast majority of borrowers.
Market fixed rates had been falling sharply over recent months with major lenders falling over themselves to offer the most competitive deals to drum up business, bringing the headline rate for borrowers with the biggest deposits down well below 4%.
However, just in the last few days there had been worrying signs that the price war had run out of steam with Santander pulling its cheapest deals and NatWest pushing through rate rises of 0.3% across most of its range of home loans.
Well today’s welcome news from the frontline of the war against inflation, should, all other things being equal, stop that upward movement in its tracks and reignite the price cutting.
Of course, back to back interest rate cuts in November and December are not yet guaranteed. Inflation will tick up again in October, as the 10% rise in the energy price cap kicks in, probably sending it back above the 2% target.
And of course an expansionary Budget from Rachel Reeves could also change the calculation.
But it does seem that inflation is on a lower downward glide path than Andrew Bailey and his Bank MPC colleagues had previously assumed.
If that does unlock a 0.5% cut in the cost of borrowing - in two back-to-back chunks - by Christmas, it could prove the most welcome economic news since that brief window after the end of the pandemic, but before Putin’s tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border, when we dared dream of a brighter future.
