The Tennessee Titans (7-5) are just a few hours away from hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) in a crucial AFC South showdown.
A Titans victory this afternoon would officially eliminate the Jaguars from AFC South contention while also pushing their magic number to clinch the division down to just one game.
That means that Tennessee would only need either one more win or one more Indianapolis Colts loss the rest of the season to become AFC South champions for the third consecutive year.
On the contrary, a Jaguars win would at least crack the door open for the possibility of a late-season turnaround.
It would be ideal for the Titans to clinch the division as soon as possible, but they also can’t afford to look ahead prematurely.
Doing so drastically increases the possibility of a trap game against a team like this, and that’s something Tennessee must prevent from happening on Sunday.
There are several things the Titans have to accomplish to avoid the disastrous letdown game at home, so let’s elaborate on three areas in particular for this week’s keys to victory.
Get Derrick Henry going again
It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has had some of the most memorable games against the Jaguars during his career.
Henry has rushed for a total of 1,143 yards over 11 career games against his hometown team. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s averaged 103.9 yards per meeting and 5.4 yards per carry.
However, unlike many of those recent contests, Henry comes into this game on a bit of an extended slump.
Over the last four weeks, the Alabama product has only totaled 208 rushing yards and one touchdown on 75 carries (2.7 yards per carry). The All-Pro running back has also averaged fewer than three yards per rush attempt in three of his last four outings.
If the Titans are going to have any chance at getting back into the contender conversation, they need Henry to get back to producing like the special talent that he is.
For that to happen, the offensive line has to give their unique running back a chance to impose his will on the opposition.
Henry is a unicorn talent that possesses a rare blend of size, strength, speed, and power. The King is at his best whenever he’s allowed to rush downhill into the second or third level of the defense, often forcing smaller defenders to make business decisions.
The Titans face a formidable front-seven that is only allowing 113.6 yards per game (14th fewest).
It definitely won’t be easy, but if Tennessee can establish Henry as a legitimate threat, it will also make things much easier on a passing offense that could use all the help it can get at the moment.
When Henry’s rolling, his mere presence on play-fakes forces defenders to bite down harder than they normally would, inevitably opening things up on the backend for Ryan Tannehill to take advantage of.
If No. 22 is playing like his usual self, it should allow this offense to at least be balanced enough to find a way to end the weekend with an 8-5 record
Make Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable
This is obviously under the assumption that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence plays on Sunday, which is looks like he will.
Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, who missed most of practice last week and is listed as questionable for Sunday due to a toe injury, is expected to play vs. the Titans, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 11, 2022
Regardless of who the signal-caller is for the Jags on Sunday, Jacksonville enters this game with a respectable offensive line that includes a mixture of high-priced veterans and talented young players.
That unit is collectively only allowing 1.9 sacks per game at the moment, tied for the seventh-fewest in the league after 12 games. Tennessee’s pass-rush has its work cut out for it if it wants to get back to setting the tone.
Head Coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen both place a heavy emphasis on the importance of consistently affecting the opposing quarterback.
The Titans have to get back to establishing their dominance in an area that is supposed to be one of the strengths of this football team. Unfortunately for them, they will be without Denico Autry for the third consecutive game.
The team is also missing arguably its top-two cornerbacks at the moment, therefore Tennessee’s pass-rush will have even more load to shoulder.
It will be up to Jeffery Simmons, Bud Dupree and others to make sure they don’t allow Lawrence to sit back there and pick on the depleted secondary.
As long as the Titans’ defense is able to constantly make its presence felt in the Jaguars’ backfield, Tennessee should be able to limit the opposing offense enough to end the two-game losing streak.
Eliminate self-inflicted wounds
In order for the Titans to leave Week 14 with an 8-5 record, they must ensure that they don’t beat themselves. The Titans have to protect the ball regardless if they’re throwing it through the air or grinding out yards on the ground.
One of the easiest ways to get beat in the NFL is to give your opponent unnecessary extra possessions that also serve as momentum-altering plays.
Tennessee also comes into this game as one of the most penalized teams in the league despite logging the second-fewest amount of plays (1,786).
Per NFLPenalties.com, the Titans have had the seventh-most penalties called against them this season with a total of 79 on the year. 37 of those penalties have come on offense, 28 on defense, and 14 through special teams.
Tennessee also leads the league in offsetting penalties (six), which means they’re ruining their own chances at capitalizing on other teams’ mistakes.
If the Titans can avoid all this and play a clean football game, they should be able to do enough to avoid getting upset by the 4-8 Jaguars.
