The Tennessee Titans (2-2) travel to North Englewood, Maryland to take on the Washington Commanders (1-3) in a Week 5 inter-conference showdown.
This will be the first meeting between the two franchises since Washington underwent an extensive rebrand. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions at the moment.
The Titans are coming off two straight wins where the team has shown flashes of being a dominant football team.
Then there’s the Commanders, a team that has lost three straight games since its Week 1 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since then, Washington has often looked lifeless as they seem destined for another rebuilding season in 2022.
Nevertheless, any Titans fan can tell you how this type of game is hardly a lock. For whatever reason, the Titans have historically struggled in games where they are the clear favorites.
If Tennessee is ever going to take that next step toward becoming a legitimate contender, they have to stop dropping games they should win.
Ultimately, this game will be decided by some individual and collective battles, so let’s take a closer look at the five key matchups that could play a large role in deciding Sunday’s game.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Carson Wentz
These two quarterbacks faced off two times in Carson Wentz’s lone season in the AFC South with the Colts. Ryan Tannehill got the better of Wentz both times, which surely contributed to Jim Irsay’s decision to not bring Wentz back for a second stint in Indianapolis.
Despite his up-and-down season as a Colt, the North Dakota State product received another opportunity to lead a franchise as its starting quarterback.
Even with a fresh start back in the division where he started his career, Wentz continues to produce inconsistent performances that amount to a mixed bag of results.
On a positive note, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the Commanders quarterback is second in the league in “intended air yards” with 1,288.
Unfortunately for him, Wentz has also seen a drop-off in both his passer rating and independent quarterback rating (IQR) from a year ago.
Last season with the Colts, Wentz’s IQR was a strong 104.5 while his actual passer rating came in slightly lower at 99.4. This year, his IQR sits at a respectable 84.0 while his passer rating comes in at 82.3.
As for the Titans, their quarterback has actually seen an improvement in both passing metrics. Tannehill’s IQR jumped from 91.6 to 96.6, and his passer rating went from 89.5 in 2021 to 93.8 through the first four games of 2022.
Both quarterbacks will be without their talented first-round rookie receivers as the Commanders’ Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and the Titans’ Treylon Burks (toe) are officially out for Sunday’s game.
Whichever one of these two signal-callers — both of whom have been prone to mistakes during their respective careers — can steer a cleaner ship is likely going to be the quarterback that walks away with a victory.
Derrick Henry vs. Commanders’ front-seven
The Titans’ star running back has started to heat up over the last few weeks. Derrick Henry has eclipsed 140 total yards in each of his last two outings, and last Sunday Henry finally broke the century mark on the ground, producing 114 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries.
Despite being notorious for his relatively slow starts, the Titans’ primary ball carrier has rushed for at least 82 yards in three of his four games this season.
Another staggering stat that I just have to include is the fact that Henry has produced more broken/missed tackles (16) than Washington’s J.D McKissic and Antonio Gibson have combined to produce first downs (15). Henry also has more touchdowns (three to two) and rushing yards (306 to 238) than Washington’s backs have combined.
The Commanders’ 16th-ranked run defense has its work cut out for it. They unit will be without Chase Young for at least another week, but they still have former Alabama stars Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, both of whom are capable of wrecking an offense’s gameplan at any moment.
Cole Holcomb is another player who has been productive for Washington this season; however, he also has a broken/missed tackle percentage of 11.1. That could be something for a bruising runner like Henry to exploit.
In order for Washington to have any shot in this one, they have to find a way to slow down the King, otherwise, it could be a long day for the Washington defense.
Titans’ pass rush vs. Commanders’ pass protection
This is probably the most glaring area that stands out when studying Washington’s data.
So far through four games, Washington has already allowed a league-high 17 sacks along with a whopping 73 pressures. To put those numbers into perspective, Tannehill has been pressured 41 times and taken seven sacks.
This weekend, the Commanders will be without one of their starting tackles in Sam Cosmi, while the other, Charles Leno Jr., who is currently second on the team with a total of nine blown blocks, has been battling a shoulder injury.
The protection on the other side will be a big question mark as well. Saahdiq Charles, who is expected to fill in for Cosmi at right tackle, has had his struggles in limited action this year.
Per SIS, the LSU product has only tallied 68 pass-blocking snaps this season, yet, he’s already allowed a total of six blown blocks on the year. To add some perspective to his struggles, Titans right guard Nate Davis has only allowed four blown blocks all year long despite playing a total of 214 pass-blocking snaps.
These types of pass protection issues for Washington are far from ideal against an opponent like Tennessee.
"#Titans are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 15 pressures within 3 seconds of the snap on non-blitzes this season. They've been able to generate pressures without blitzing, using just a four-man rush on 73 percent of dropbacks (3rd-highest rate in the NFL)." https://t.co/see98XzwpZ
— Mike Herndon (@MikeHerndonNFL) October 7, 2022
Someone like Rashad Weaver has to be licking his chops now that he has the opportunity to face off against a struggling backup offensive lineman.
The Pittsburgh product currently leads the Titans in sacks and tackles for loss with four ,and he undoubtedly would like to increase those numbers by the end of the weekend.
Fast start for #Titans OLB @RashadWeaver. pic.twitter.com/4HWFZGchQ8
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) October 6, 2022
Washington will at least receive a break as far as the other edge position goes with both Bud Dupree (Hip) and Ola Adeniyi (neck) being sidelined in this one.
Expect to see more of Denico Autry on the edge this Sunday while Jeffery Simmons, Mario Edwards and Teair Tart, among others, hold down the interior.
Simmons in particular has the potential to single-handedly wreck the Commanders’ offensive game plan. Expect Washington’s offensive line to give No. 98 a ton of attention throughout the day, which should provide favorable matchups for the rest of the defense.
If the Titans can make Wentz uncomfortable by getting to him early and often, they should be flying back to Nashville with a 3-2 record.
Kristian Fulton vs. Terry McLaurin
This individual matchup between two high-caliber players at their respective positions was too good not to list. These two probably won’t be going against each other on every single snap, but whenever they do line up across from each other, it’s bound to be an awesome battle.
The Commanders receiver has already tallied 250 receiving yards and one touchdown on just 14 receptions (17.8 yards per reception). McLaurin is also producing a quarterback rating of 96.2 when targeted, racking up first downs on 71.4 percent of his receptions.
One area of concern for the former Buckeye is his inconsistency with reeling in catchable passes. McLaurin has a staggering drop percentage of 16.7 this season. In fact, he’s the only receiver on his team who has a drop percentage higher than 7.1 percent, per SIS.
Fulton hasn’t been perfect by any means, also. He’s been targeted a total of 13 times, resulting in eight completions for 171 yards and two touchdowns. The third-year cornerback is also allowing a disappointing passer rating of 145.0 when targeted this year.
A lot of that high production can be attributed to his early-season struggles. Nonetheless, these aren’t the types of numbers you want to see out of your No. 1 corner who is usually much more reliable than that.
Last season, Fulton’s passer rating when targeted was just 56.4, approximately 88.6 points lower than this season.
Both McLaurin and Fulton will look to get back to their dominant ways on Sunday. Keep a close eye on this individual matchup anytime you see No. 26 in two-tone blue lined up directly across from No. 17 in burgundy and gold.
The Titans' offense vs. itself
Tennessee’s dreadful second-half showing on offense continued last Sunday. For the third straight game, the Titans failed to put up any points after halftime and have now been outscored 64-7 after the intermission.
The most frustrating thing about this is the fact that the Titans are currently the most efficient offense before the halftime break. Tennessee has scored a combined 68 first-half points this season.
According to RBSDM, the Titans are the most efficient offense in the first half, but they are also the least efficient offense once the second half begins.
Tennessee’s coaching staff is seemingly struggling to counter any halftime adjustments the opposing team makes. The offense desperately needs to start putting together a full and productive four quarters to maximize its full potential.
The Titans don’t need to be an offensive force for four quarters or anything like that, but they can’t keep having these drastic fall-offs from being the most efficient offense in one half to being the least efficient offense in the other.
Tennessee will have one last chance against the Commanders to put together a complete game to build some positive momentum before their much-needed Week 6 bye.
