You can find my tight end rankings, projections and full cheat sheet below, but first, I want to talk about some of my thoughts on the position and some recent updates to those rankings.
Rankings by position: QB | RB | WR | TE
At the top, Hunter Henry remains the outlier in my tight end projections. He had a scoring connection (eight touchdowns) with Mac Jones in his first year in New England, but his targets (75) ranked 18th in the league (79 fewer than Mark Andrews). The Patriots listed him with an unknown injury tag in early August that was removed this week. To fulfill my expectations, he needs about 20 more chances in 2022 while holding his value in touchdowns.
I have George Kittle listed lower than his expected draft value. He has a higher upside, but I priced in fewer passing attempts by the 49ers after making the change to Trey Lance as their starting quarterback. San Francisco will run the ball a lot in 2022, and they have two other exciting receiver options (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). In addition, Kittle has missed 13 games over the past three seasons, leading to a couple of missed games priced into his projections.
Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas came off the PUP list over the last few days, but their projections haven't been changed. Their ability to start in Week 1 will give them a slight bump in chances. I'm following their progress over the next two weeks to see if their outlooks need an adjustment.
2022 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS & RANKINGS
TIGHT ENDS
TEAM-BY-TEAM PROJECTIONS
CHEAT SHEET
More about my rankings and projections
I walk through the NFL player pool each season to get a feel for each team's offensive structure. The goal is to get a baseline of a player's outlook using previous seasons to highlight rushing and passing splits. Any changes in coaching staff or personnel invite different opportunities for some players. I want to highlight each player's ceiling while also being careful not to influence unless I see something in a scouting report or potential change in a player's opportunity. At the same time, I must stay in tune with the player news and coach-speak in training camp.
After finishing the player projections, I backup my results by showing how I came to my conclusion in each team's offensive profile. Over the summer, these stats are fluid. Even though my fantasy points results come out as rankings, a viewer needs to understand the back story of each player. They also need to see how close some groups of players rank. The difference between 10 or so players may be as little as 10 fantasy points. By knowing the player pool, each person should have their opinion to make draft day decisions.
I never want to make projections to match previous results or current ADPs. That wouldn't be fair. After having a feel for the player pool, I need to compare my views with other drafters to find potential drafting opportunities. Each draft site has different scoring systems and ranking in the draft room. To become a better drafter, getting in tune with the draft flow is essential to improve your chances of winning.
