Betting Predictions for Thursday's Sweet 16 Games
On Thursday, Sweet 16 action will tip off with four exciting matchups highlighted by a pair of blue blood programs, Villanova and Michigan, facing off for the first time since the 2016 National Championship game. Plus, Gonzaga. this year’s No. 1 overall seed, puts their title hopes on the line against an SEC power in Arkansas.
For sports bettors who prefer to blindly grab the points offered by oddsmakers in the opening rounds of the men’s NCAA tournament, 2022 proved to once again be a solid investment.
In the first round, favorites went 22-10 straight-up (SU) but more importantly for sports bettors, underdogs posted a 17-15 against-the-spread (ATS) mark.
Sweet 16 betting previews: Gonzaga-Arkansas | Villanova vs. Michigan | Arizona vs. Houston
In the second round, favorites went 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS but betting on underdogs on the moneyline proved profitable with No. 15 St. Peter’s (+325), No. 11 Michigan (+215), No. 10 Miami (+255), No. 11 Iowa State (+170) and No. 8 North Carolina (+195) all pulling outright upsets.
Through the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, favorites are ahead 33-15 SU while underdogs lead the way at 27-21 ATS.
Sweet Sixteen Betting Trends:
Last Five Tournaments the better/higher Seeds:
- Straight-up (SU): 29-11 (72.5%)
- Against the spread (ATS): 22-16-2 (57.9%)
Last Two Tournaments the better/higher Seeds:
- Straight-up (SU): 11-5 SU (68.8%)
- Against the spread ATS: 8-8 (50%)
Let’s dive into the games!
Frank Franklin II/AP
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Spread: No. 11 Michigan +4.5 | No. 2 Villanova -4.5
Total: 135– Over | Under 135
Moneyline: Michigan +180 | Villanova -225
Game Info: Thursday, March 24, 2022 7:29 p.m. EST | TBS
Records: Wolverines: 19-14 (SU); 15-18 ATS | Wildcats: 28-7 (SU); 18-16-1 (ATS)
Site: AT&T Center - San Antonio, Texas
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since the opener, displaying No. 2 Villanova (28-7 SU; 18-16-1 ATS) as 4.5-point favorites over No. 11 Michigan (19-14 SU; 15-18 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
This Sweet 16 matchup is a rematch of the 2018 National Championship game where Villanova won 79-62. Now, Jay Wright has the Wildcats in the Sweet 16 for the second straight year and potentially in line for a third National Championship in the last six years.
The Big East champions have ripped off seven consecutive wins in the month of March and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen after beating Delaware 80-60 as 15-point favorites and then taking down No. 7 seed Ohio State 71-61 as 5-point favorites in the second round.
Michigan had a shaky end to the regular season after head coach Juwan Howard was suspended for the final five games of the regular season. However, the club has bounced back into form during the NCAA Tournament with their leader back on the sidelines. The Wolverines came back from a 15-point deficit in the first round against Colorado State and then followed that up by upsetting No. 2 seed Tennessee 76-68 as 6.5-point underdogs in the second round.
After posting consecutive double-digit victories in their first two games of the tournament, both of these clubs head into this blue blood clash playing at an elite level with supreme confidence.
Michael Conroy/AP
Michigan’s big man Hunter Dickenson, who is averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, is an intimidating force down low for the Wolverines. The matchup with Dickenson and Villanova’s Eric Dixon down low on the block is easily the most pivotal matchup in the game. Dixon, an emerging sophomore, has scored double digits in both of the Wildcats victories in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan’s Eli Brooks has stepped up his play during March Madness, averaging 19.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. However, the Wildcats have the edge at the point guard position thanks to Big East Player of the Year Colin Gillespie (16.0 ppg).
Villanova’s Justin Moore (15.0 ppg) and Jermaine Samuels (10.7 ppg; 6.4 rbg) are two versatile players who need to contribute on both ends of the floor in order for the Wildcats to advance to the Elite Eight for the third time in the last six tournaments.
Since 2016, Villanova is 18-3 in the NCAA Tournament under the leadership of head coach Jay Wright. From a betting perspective, we discover that the Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games when listed as favorites.
As we see every year during March Madness, free-throw shooting is often the difference between winning or losing. Villanova is not only the best free-throw shooting team in the tournament but in the history of college basketball converting at 82.5%.
Early respected money in Las Vegas is backing Villanova to move onto the Elite Eight and cover the points.
BET: VILLANOVA -4.5
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No.1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Spread: No. 4 Arkansas +8.5 | No. 1 Gonzaga -8.5
Total: 155– Over | Under 155
Moneyline: Arkansas +325 | Gonzaga -450
Game Info: Thursday, March 24, 2022 7:09 p.m. EST | CBS
Records: Razorbacks: 27-8 (SU); 20-14-1 ATS | Bulldogs: 28-3 (SU); 14-14-3 (ATS)
Site: Chase Center - San Francisco, CA
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked up since the opener, displaying No. 1 Gonzaga (28-3 SU; 14-14-3 ATS) as 8-point favorites over No. 4 Arkansas (27-8 SU; 20-14-1 ATS) to a 9-point demand at SI Sportsbook.
The West Coast Conference (WCC), have burned bettors over the past month with a disappointing 2-6-2 ATS mark despite posting a 9-1 SU record. The Bulldogs beat Georgia St by 21 in the first round but failed to cover the 23.5-point spread. In the second round, Gonzaga needed to come back from a 10-point halftime deficit to get by Memphis 82-78 but once again failed to cover as 9.5 point line.
The Bulldogs are easily the most prolific scoring team in the country thanks to arguably the best front-line in college basketball consisting of Drew Timme (18.2 ppg, 6.7 rbg) and Chet Holmgren (14.2 ppg, 9.8 RPG). Plus, they have a skilled backcourt with Andrew Nembhard (12.0 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Julian Strawther (11.8 ppg, 5.5 apg). Timme was instrumental in the win over Memphis, absolutely dominating the Tigers after halftime leading the way for a 51-point second-half outburst.
His leadership and toughness can not be understated, but the dominant play of Holmgren in the paint is what makes this team special. The shot-blocking freshman has 11 blocks in his first two career NCAA tournament games. But, he has struggled with three-point shooting. A 39.2% shooter from beyond the arc on the season, Holmgren is just 1 of 14 combined in his last five games from deep. His inability to find his outside stroke is arguably the biggest reason why Gonzaga has failed to cover the spread over the last several weeks. If he regains his confidence from the outside, the Razorbacks will struggle to keep pace in this matchup.
Nelson Chenault/USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas is led by the Southeastern Conference's (SEC) fourth-leading scorer JD Notae (18.4 ppg). The dynamic senior guard was superb in the club’s win over New Mexico State, filling up the stat sheet with 18 points, four rebounds, three assists and eight steals. First-Team SEC forward Jaylin Williams has been sensational in the NCAA tournament with consecutive double-doubles averaging 11.5 points and 12.5 rebounds. However, a deeper dive reveals that the talented Williams is only shooting 35% from the field - earning 8 of his 23 points from the free-throw line. The star sophomore will need to improve his efficiency from the field if Arkansas has any hopes of upsetting the nation’s top-ranked team.
Arkansas has done just enough in its first two tournament games to squeak by both Vermont and New Mexico St. Respected money in Vegas backed the Catamounts as 5-point underdogs and successfully won that investment when Arkansas won 75-71.
The Razorbacks are 0-2 ATS in the tournament and according to the metrics, this is a matchup that does not bode favorably for Eric Musselman’s squad. Gonzaga leads the country in scoring at 88.3 points per game and the numbers indicate they could have their way with an Arkansas club that averages 20-points per game less than the Bulldogs.
Mark Few will have the Bulldogs prepared and focused after the scare by Memphis in the second round. Lay the wood with Drew Timme & Chet Holmgren to overwhelm Arkansas on both ends of the floor and win this by double digits and get their first ATS win of the tournament.
BET: Gonzaga -8.5
Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports
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SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2022 March Madness: 4-7 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021/2022 Overall: 22-24 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
