In what’s already an unconventional work week for the Miami Dolphins due to playing on Thursday night, things are a little more out of whack after they were forced by Hurricane Ian to make their trip to Cincinnati a day early.
Now set to play a Bengals team that seemed to turn a corner in Week 3 and got to avoid the hoops Miami had to jump through to make sure this game happens, the Dolphins are at a decided disadvantage. They’re being given 3.5 points as the road underdog at BetMGM. My favorite bet from this game, though, is the Bengals moneyline at -190. And I like Cincy for more reasons than one — not the least of which are these awesome white bengal uniforms they’re debuting.
The hype around each of these teams couldn’t be more different entering Week 4, as the Dolphins are riding the high of a 3-0 start that includes wins over the Bills and Ravens, while the Bengals started their AFC title defense with losses to the Steelers and Dak Prescott-less Cowboys.
However, Cincinnati’s offense finally came to life Sunday against the Jets, which sets the stage Thursday night for a potential back and forth between some explosive playmakers. It’s for that reason I’m avoiding the spread, because I think Miami can make enough splash plays to keep things close. I don’t think either team makes so many plays that the game goes over 48.5 points though. Take the under.
Outside of a monster fourth quarter against the Ravens, Miami hasn’t scored as often as the stats of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jalyen Waddle would suggest. Put them against a Bengals defense that ranks seventh in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, and it stands to reason they’ll fall in the range of 20-23 points for the third time in four games. Especially considering Tagovailoa is still dealing with the back injury he suffered in the win over Buffalo, and an ankle injury.
Because Miami’s defense is better than New York’s, I don’t think the Bengals will have as easy a time either. The Dolphins are third in the NFL in team pass rush win rate, making my favorite prop Joe Mixon to go over 3.5 receptions at +110 odds. I’m predicting a final score of around 23-20 in favor of the Bengals.
