Good morning. I hope you had a restful Christmas and New Year, spent in a spirit of calm and conviviality. Kemi Badenoch, the already embattled new leader of the Conservative party, spent hers on the front pages after picking an extravagantly unnecessary fight with Nigel Farage over the reliability of the code on Reform’s website. On earth peace, goodwill to all men!
Arguing the toss with a man whose greatest joy in life is winding up Tories probably wasn’t the right seasonal strategy for Badenoch. But it is only one of the problems facing her leadership.
With her party in the doldrums and many of its big beasts hunted down in last year’s election defeat, Badenoch pitched herself as the right candidate to take the fight to Keir Starmer and revive the Tories at the next election. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s deputy political editor Jessica Elgot, is about why that is proving so difficult. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
New Orleans attack | At least 15 people have been killed after a vehicle flying an Islamic State (IS) flag drove into a crowd in New Orleans’ tourist district in the early hours of New Year’s Day. Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a US citizen from Texas, was killed in an exchange of gunfire with police and had a “potential” improvised explosive device, the FBI said.
US news | One person died and seven more were injured when a Tesla Cybertruck packed with fireworks exploded outside Donald Trump’s Las Vegas hotel. Joe Biden said that law enforcement was investigating whether there were any links with the New Orleans attack.
Energy | Russian gas has ceased flowing to Europe via Ukraine, causing power cuts in parts of Moldova and concern in some EU capitals about making up the deficit. Ukraine cut off the route after a 2019 agreement expired yesterday.
Weather | The Met Office has issued a three-day heavy snow warning after torrential new year rain led to flooded properties, travel chaos and power cuts. Temperatures could drop to well below freezing at the weekend with up to 30cm of snow across England, Scotland and Wales.
UK politics | UK elections are close to losing legitimacy because of plummeting turnout among renters and non-graduates, an influential thinktank has said. Analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research found that the gap in turnout between those with and without university degrees grew to 11 percentage points in the 2024 election – double that of 2019.
In depth: ‘It always takes an opposition leader a while to find a rhythm’
When Reform claimed that they now have more members than the Tories (via a digital counter projected on to Conservative headquarters) on Boxing Day, they probably hoped for a quick round of coverage during a political interlude.
But they got a much better Christmas present from Kemi Badenoch. The Conservative leader – who has form for weird data fights – claimed the numbers had been faked, and that the code on Reform’s website proved it. Thanks to her intervention, the story led the rightwing press for several days. Membership isn’t really a proxy for national popularity, but at least some readers would have come away thinking of the two parties as, at best, neck and neck.
This is not a terminal error – but it is emblematic of the tough start that Badenoch is having. “The big picture is that the Conservative party is in a bad place – decimated at the election and divided over her leadership,” Jessica said. “Badenoch’s not boring, but there was a concern among a lot of people that she is a loose cannon. She finds it very difficult to let things go, and that’s not a great asset in a leader.”
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Why did she get into it with Farage?
To Badenoch’s critics, it was an indefensible mistake. “Badenoch doesn’t so much keep falling into [Farage’s] traps as leaping into them head-first,” journalist and former Ukip MEP Patrick O’Flynn wrote in the Spectator. “It is a disaster. Her perceived hostility towards Farage is likely to upset voters who once backed the Tories yet have recently transferred their allegiance to Reform.”
But there are factors that make it at least comprehensible, Jessica said. “In general, she’s probably doing the right thing by deciding that it’s too early to set out a policy platform – even if she’s already deviated from that approach on a couple of issues – the farmers’ inheritance tax row and VAT on private schools, which are expensive policies to say you’re going to reverse this early.” For now, she added, the right focus is probably the rehabilitation of her own party. “That is what worked for Starmer: win a hearing from the public and get into specifics later.”
But that is hard to square with the view among some senior Conservatives who disagree with O’Flynn and say that they have to take Farage on as an “existential threat to the party,” Jessica said. “It’s difficult in their current position to win a policy argument with Reform. Whereas if she attacks them as charlatans and stunt artists, that is an argument she can make.”
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How is she doing more generally?
One claim made by Badenoch’s supporters was that she would run rings around Starmer at PMQs – crucial for an opposition leader as one of the few consistent opportunities for media attention.
But most observers suggest that there hasn’t been much evidence of that yet: in the Spectator, for example, Isabel Hardman wrote that Badenoch has “become fixated on accusing Keir Starmer of not telling the truth at prime minister’s questions, to the extent that she is neglecting to push him on individual issues”. And in the New Statesman, Rachel Cunliffe wrote that “Week after week at PMQs, Badenoch is presented with open goals (and fails to score)”.
There is a danger of overdoing the significance of all that, Jessica noted. “It always takes an opposition leader a while to find a rhythm at PMQs,” she said. “And it’s harder when the government has a thumping majority behind it roaring the prime minister on while your own benches are so depleted.”
On the other hand, she added, “I’ve been surprised by the subjects she’s chosen to focus on a few times. She has often gone for things that Starmer can fairly easily blame on the last government, and she hasn’t done much on the winter fuel allowance or the impact of the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions on hospitality. Those are much more unpopular than adding VAT to private school fees.”
She has meanwhile got a fair bit of media attention – but the Farage saga suggests that she is not all that adept at turning it to her advantage yet. “Kemi hates journalists, and hates being interviewed, and just isn’t prepared to do short clips and all the sort of stuff that opposition leaders have to do to keep from being forgotten,” Jessica said. “And because she hates journalists, she often comes across as irritated. So that’s something she will need to address.”
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What do the polls say?
The best news for Badenoch is that Labour and Starmer had an incredibly short honeymoon. (This column by Anthony Seldon is a useful guide to why the prime minister is having just as rough a time as his opponent.) With very little good economic news as yet, the lead in the polls has changed hands several times since the election. Much less comforting is the fact that Reform has been doing very well, with some polls suggesting that it could come third ahead of the Liberal Democrats if nothing changes before the next election.
But things will, of course, change a lot before the next election – which means that the more useful gauge at this point may be what you can find in the underlying figures. Here, the news looks pretty bad for Badenoch. A recent YouGov poll found she is much less likely to be seen as a PM in waiting than Starmer was when he became party leader.
Some of that may be to do with a bias towards a white man as a plausible premier, and it is possible that as people get to know her those numbers will tick up a bit. But that relies on her finding a plausible lane of her own. “People don’t tend to vote for Diet Coke,” Jess said. “They want the real thing. So she has to carve out her own identity and set of policies, and show why she’s just as interesting a leader as Farage.”
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Isn’t it a bit early to judge her leadership?
Definitely. As conservative commentator Iain Dale wrote in the Daily Telegraph, two months is not enough time to assess her performance, especially when “no one is particularly interested in what the Conservatives have at the moment. As Labour’s failures mount up, the time will come.”
The trouble is that some of her own backbenchers are among those who are making rapid judgments. “Two-thirds of the parliamentary party weren’t convinced by her as leader,” Jess said. “That’s a tough base to start from. The big thing for her this year is going to be keeping control of her parliamentary party.”
The worst case scenario is if poor results in May’s local elections, and a strong showing for Reform, lead to some backbenchers jumping ship to their rivals on the right – and leave a mood of alarm among those who remain. Tories will not be that moved by Suella Braverman ejecting, since her alienation from the leadership and appetite for attention are priced in. But MPs from the new intake or old hands with less interest in personal publicity would be another story.
Badenoch will certainly get a bit of time to prove herself, and she may well find her feet. But if she does fail, there are alternatives. “It’s interesting that James Cleverly took a step back from the frontbench after he was eliminated from the leadership contest,” Jess said. “You would get pretty short odds on him being the leader by the next election. It’s much too early for predictions, but it’s certainly plausible.”
What else we’ve been reading
As we slowly drag ourselves back into work mode, the Guardian has asked the experts for 15 tips to avoid “overwhelm” in all its forms, from “constructive worrying” to, yes, putting down your phone. Charlie
Rachel Aroesti reviews the return of The Traitors – and it’s a five star rave: “As perhaps the best example of social experiment-style reality TV, it has cemented its place in the cultural firmament.” (If you’re a fan, watch it first!) Archie
As a child, British-Iranian photographer Bea Doro couldn’t wait to change her prominent Persian nose. As she writes in this opinion piece, she has not only come to accept it as a part of her identity, but committed herself to “photograph people with non-western features, and pay homage to our profiles and the history in our faces”. Charlie
Our critics Alexis Petridis and Andrew Clements have a must-read list of 2025’s most anticipated music, from Billie Eilish and Fontaines DC to Sam Fender and FKA twigs. Personally, I’m in desperate need of new Haim. Charlie
My personal Christmas highlight (with apologies to my loved ones) was catching up on this magnificent feature by David Pierce for the Verge, published in June, on the Excel World Championship. It’s tremendously fun, but more than a curiosity piece: “If you can reduce the world down to a bunch of rows and columns, you can control it,” Pierce writes. Archie
Sport
Football | Arsenal came back from 1-0 down to beat Brentford 3-1 thanks to goals from Gabriel Jesus, Mikel Merino, and Gabriel Martinelli (above). The result puts them six points behind Liverpool having played one game more.
Darts | Luke Littler secured a place in the semi-finals of the PDC World Darts Championship with a 5-2 win over Nathan Aspinall. Chris Dobey, Michael van Gerwen and Stephen Bunting also progressed to the last four.
2025 in sport | Can Sarina Wiegman’s Lionesses overcome their manager’s Dutch compatriots at the Women’s Euros? Will we finally get a competitive Ashes series in Australia? And how will Lewis Hamilton do at Ferrari? Guardian writers preview the biggest sporting storylines of the year ahead.
The front pages
Today’s front pages are dominated by the New Orleans attack. The Guardian reports “Ten dead after truck flying IS flag drives into crowd in New Orleans”. The Times has “‘Terrorist’ truck attacker kills 10 in New Orleans”. The Telegraph reports “IS cell behind New Orleans terror”. The Mail leads with “New Orleans killer had Isis flag on truck”. The Mirror goes with “America under attack”.
i splashes with “Covid courts to stay open – as backlog delays trials to 2028”. The Financial Times leads with “Nvidia pumps $1bn into AI start-ups riding on revolution its chips started”. And the Sun leads with news of bad weather across the UK with the headline “So much for dry January”.
Today in Focus
How to have a perfectly imperfect 2025
Instead of making grand new year’s resolutions, the smallest steps could lead to a more joyful life, says Oliver Burkeman
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Looking for some quick, life-friendly ways to change your life? Guardian writers and readers have teamed up for this bumper list of 101 tiny things you can do to improve your life … in under five minutes.
Ever tried “alternate nostril breathing”? Us neither, but now’s the time.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
