Good morning. Last night, a nail biting election in Sweden that went down to the last postal votes finally reached its conclusion: the Social Democrat prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, conceded defeat to a conservative bloc including the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD). Jimmie Akesson (above), the SD’s leader, said it was time to “make Sweden good again”.
It was no landslide victory, the right wing coalition only won a majority of three out of 349 seats. And centre-right parties have said that the SD will not be given ministerial power. But the fact remains that a radical party which emerged from violent neo-Nazi groups in the 1980s is now the second-biggest grouping in Sweden’s parliament, and the largest on the right, with more than 20% of the vote.
The SD have sought to move away from their ethno-nationalist past, instead portraying themselves as any other nationalist conservative party. They even changed their logo from a flaming torch with the Swedish flag emblazoned on it to a yellow and blue flower, because what indicates deradicalisation like a nice flower? But given the party’s history, and hardline stance on immigration and crime, their success has already caused real alarm.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to journalist and University of Glasgow sociology lecturer Dominic Hinde, a Sweden expert who has been travelling around the country since June, and David Crouch, who has been covering the election for the Guardian, about how Sweden got here. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
Queen Elizabeth II | Mourners have waited through the night to file past the Queen’s coffin as it lay in state, with vast queues across London of well wishers waiting to pay their final respects. On Wednesday, King Charles and other members of the royal family were part of a ceremonial procession from Buckingham Palace to Westminster Hall.
Ukraine | Residents of Izium have spoken about their experiences of occupation, now that Ukrainian forces have recaptured the town. While Russian forces largely kept to themselves, locals spoke of people who were “disappeared” or killed in cold blood. A war crimes investigation is now underway.
Politics | The new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s sacking of senior Treasury official Tom Scholar will have a “chilling effect” on the advice civil servants give to ministers, a former head of the civil service has warned.
Chris Kaba | The family of Chris Kaba will be allowed to watch police video of the incident that led to his killing, the Guardian has learned, as the police watchdog insisted evidence and not public pressure led it to investigate an officer for homicide offences.
Coronavirus | The end of the Covid-19 pandemic is “in sight”, the World Health Organization has declared, after revealing that weekly deaths from the virus around the world were at the lowest level since March 2020.
In depth: How a liberal Nordic nation changed course
Before their success forced the resignation of Magdalena Andersson (above) last night, the Sweden Democrats had been operating in the background of their country’s politics for more than three decades. But they have only entered the mainstream since 2018, when they won 17.6% of the vote – up from around 13% in 2014. With a few high-profile expulsions of neo-Nazi members alongside a wider rebranding effort, the party appears to have successfully persuaded many voters of its acceptability.
It is not yet clear how the Sweden Democrats will work with the centre-right Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals who form the rest of the bloc. The Moderates may well lead a minority administration. Nonetheless, the size of the SD vote leaves them in a strong position to get concessions from the rest.
The result shouldn’t be too surprising, said Crouch. “We’ve seen anti-immigrant far-right parties getting significant votes in Scandinavian countries,” he said. However, the neo-Nazi origins of the Sweden Democrats have made this result even more shocking to outsiders. How has a country that once favoured internationalism and a more open border policy welcomed hostile anti-immigration rhetoric?
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The political context
There has been an “ongoing political crisis” in Sweden, said Hinde. The Social Democrats have governed in coalition, and over the last parliamentary term, they and their partners have been unable to pass any significant policies.
The Sweden Democrats, alongside other rightwing parties, have capitalised on this stalemate to paint an image of the government as being a “leftwing coalition of chaos”, Hinde said. Over several years, the Sweden Democrats have successfully focused on anti-immigration and tough-on-crime policies. And that appears to have dragged mainstream parties to the right.
In a speech in July, the leader of the centre-right Moderates Party, Ulf Kristersson, congratulated the Sweden Democrats for their foresight in opposing large-scale immigration. The Social Democrat prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, said that she doesn’t want Sweden to have “Somalitowns” or other ethnic clusters in Swedish cities.
Less than a decade ago, the Sweden Democrats were political pariahs, and overtly praising them – much less entering into a coalition with them – would have been unheard of. As recently as 2015, the former prime minister and then-leader of the Moderate party, Fredrik Reinfeldt, referred to the Sweden Democrats leaders as “racists” and “stiffly xenophobic”. But since their significant vote gains in the 2018 election, the centre-right has seen that cooperation with the Sweden Democrats can get them back into power.
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A country in decline?
So how did Sweden get here? While the country has long enjoyed an image as a prosperous society with a high standard of living, a strong social safety net, and a tradition of progressive values, many Swedish voters are frustrated and dissatisfied with the way the country is governed.
To those people, the perception of their country no longer matches the reality: “There’s there’s been a massive decline in the quality of public services, Swedish healthcare is a shadow of what it used to be, and the education system is really suffering,” Hinde said. All of this has fed a narrative that the Sweden Democrats have been pushing of a country in decline.
This sense of decline was heightened after the refugee crisis in 2015, when Sweden accepted a record high of more than 150,000 asylum seekers. That’s almost 1.5% of its overall population. As in other European countries, an initial welcome gave way to suspicion. In April, outgoing prime minister Andersson said she regretted that the government had allowed “parallel societies” to develop.
A particularly intense sticking point has been this link between immigration and crime. Immigrants and refugees have been blamed for the increase in gun violence in the country’s suburbs by just about everyone. A high-profile shooting only a few weeks ago in a playground left a mother and child injured. Most of these shootings are related to gang activity, and while most of the victims are gang members, random people are sometimes caught in the crossfire. The Sweden Democrats have offered a simple cause of this unease and a solution: raise the drawbridge.
These kinds of solutions may not be as straightforward as they seem: Crouch spoke to an academic criminologist earlier in this week about the link between immigration and violent crime, “and he said the numbers are so small that it’s very hard to draw any firm conclusions”. But the narrative from both the centre-left Social Democrats and the central-right Moderate party has fundamentally been the same as the Sweden Democrats: immigration is a problem.
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The international view
With the Sweden Democrats gaining such influence, this election has already affected Sweden’s international image. The Moderates are doing damage control, Hinde said, “staging a big press operation to reassure allies in the international press that they’re the sensible guys in charge”.
Sweden has a much larger cultural and political footprint than its size might be expected to dictate, and one of the reasons it’s maintained its place on the global stage is because of its progressive reputation.
So, even though the Sweden Democrats are in a three-seat majority government, and have no ministerial power, they have managed to potentially put Sweden on a wildly different trajectory. “Sweden always registers very highly in these country indexes about best national brands, it’s got very good diplomatic reputations and a good human rights record,” Hinde said. “And this is integral to Swedish politics and how Swedes see themselves.”
What else we’ve been reading
Martin Scorsese, Mike Leigh, Abel Ferrara, Carol Morley, Luca Guadagnino, Claire Denis: the lineup of directors who contributed tributes to Jean-Luc Godard for this package is extraordinary. “If any artist can be said to have left traces of his own presence in his art, it’s Godard,” writes Scorsese. Archie
For many, lawns are an innocuous feature of everyday life. But Giovanni Aloi spoke to the artists who have taken an ideological and environmental stand against lawns by rewilding public and private spaces. Nimo
As many older people are forced back to work by rising bills, Lizzie Cernik has a fascinating piece on the over-65s joining the “great unretirement”. Archie
Schools are strapped for cash, Lola Okolosie writes, and they are cutting school trips to stay afloat. This choice might seem an alternative to cutting staff, but these trips offer kids, particularly those from deprived backgrounds, a chance to experience things they otherwise may not have. Nimo
Aditya Chakrabortty’s piece highlights the surreal gap between the trappings of the monarchy as Charles III’s accession takes place and the UK’s suddenly secondary cost of living crisis. Its victims “sink into the depths beneath any safety net”, he writes. “Meanwhile, others will float above the law of the land.” Archie
Sport
Football | Manchester City beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, 2-1, after striker, Erling Haaland, secured their second goal in an acrobatic display. Meanwhile Rangers lost to Napoli and Chelsea drew with RB Salzburg.
Tennis | Great Britain was defeated by the US in the Davis Cup after a decisive late night double finish. Joe Salisbury and Andy Murray lost 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.
Running | The London and Boston marathons will include non-binary categories in their application forms for races next year, in an effort to promote inclusivity.
The front pages
The Guardian this morning shows King Charles peering from behind his mother’s coffin as it is carried on a gun carriage to Westminster Hall. The lead story follows events in Ukraine “‘People disappeared’: Izium recalls horror of occupation”. “Nation’s turn to say farewell”, says the Telegraph, showing the coffin emplaced at Westminster. “She lies at peace as her people bid solemn farewells” says the Daily Mail, showing the scene from another angle. “The long goodbye” – that’s Thursday’s i while the Metro says “Our jewel, her crown” as it shows the procession to Westminster with the imperial state crown in place atop the coffin. “Your nation stands with you, ma’am” – the Express has a wide shot of proceedings inside Westminster Hall. “A nation pays its respects” says the Times; royals and dignitaries are shown standing to attention as the coffin is carried inside. “We share your pain” – the Sun shows Harry, William and their spouses at the lying in state, while using the same picture the Mirror says “Pride and the pain”. The ever-literal Financial Times has “Royal family escorts Queen in procession to Westminster Hall” – the picture shows exactly that – while its splash is “Kwarteng set to end cap on bankers’ bonuses”.
Today in Focus
Is Russia on the retreat in Ukraine?
Ukrainian forces have launched a devastating counteroffensive in the past week, retaking Russian-held territory. Dan Sabbagh and Shaun Walker explain what it means for the war as the countries head into winter.
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
When Jay Jordan (pictured above) got out of prison in California in 2012, he had all kinds of plans for his future – but he was barred from every single industry he hoped to work in because of his criminal record. Now, after years of campaigning, he has succeeded in winning a reform that will allow millions of California residents to clear their criminal records and have a better chance of getting jobs, housing, or education.
Jordan, 37, was jailed for seven years over a burglary aged 18 in which nobody was hurt, nothing was taken and he did not carry a gun. Like many Americans, his prospects after prison were stymied by laws mandating the disclosure of a wide range of arrest and conviction records. A bill that passed the state legislature last month because of his campaign will bring the most far-reaching reform of its kind in the US.
Jordan told the Guardian’s Sam Levin that when the bill passed, he thought of his father’s stories of growing up in segregated Oklahoma: “He told me about finally being able to go to the other side of town legally; it felt like he was born again, like a weight lifted off his shoulders. That’s what I feel. So many of us have been waiting for this day – to be free.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
