Not every anticipated Six Nations classic lives up to its pre‑match billing. Look no further for a prime example than last year’s opening Six Nations night in Marseille, when France launched their campaign against Ireland with all the speed and dynamism of an elderly escargot. They were also reduced to 14 players after half an hour and the visitors strolled to a comfortable 38-17 win.
But this time? Politely decline all shopping trips, walk the poodle early and make sure there’s enough Guinness in the fridge. Because some games are unmissable and this is a defining contest for both teams. Can Ireland, with successive titles already in the backpack, stay on track for an unprecedented three-peat? Or is now the time for Fabien Galthié’s France to embrace their supposed destiny?
Think Ali v Frazier or Federer v Djokovic. With added edge and better pre-match anthem singing. There can be no middle ground, no taking the dreaded “learnings”. Instead the equation is beautifully stark: go hard or go home. Or, in France’s case, go harder for longer. As their forward-dominated seven-one bench split has underlined, they are not heading to Dublin to make delicate daisy chains or gaze admiringly at the River Liffey.
It matters all the more because of what victory would mean for both sides. Mathematically Ireland would be all but sure of a record third consecutive outright title. If they lose, on the other hand, it will set up a seriously compelling final Super Saturday with France in the box seat via their superior points difference. But beyond all that are the reputational ramifications: in particular, should Ireland complete the treble, they will deserve to be remembered among the most illustrious of European champions.
All of which makes for a full metal jacket of an occasion. When the mood takes this France side they can transform rugby into the most intoxicating of team sports. Yet when needed they can also bring thunder as well as lightning. Throw in a dry ball and a now-or-never vibe and a highly charged spectacle is pretty much guaranteed.
Hence the reason why no one in Ireland is getting too far ahead of themselves. No matter that the team have lost only one of their past 24 Tests in Dublin since France beat them 15-13 just over four years ago. Against England and Wales this season there have been moments of anxiety, even if order was eventually restored. Les Bleus are comfortably good enough to make them pay a harsher price.
It will certainly be a fascinating contrast in styles. Ireland have not reached their current lofty perch through silly errors, chancing their arm unnecessarily or falling away in the second half. Their kicking game is another obvious strength. But is booting it straight down the throats of Damian Penaud and co really the answer? As France demonstrated against Italy, there are few better at exploiting half a metre of space. The visitors also seem to be kicking less themselves and adhering more closely to the Toulouse model of close-quarter offloading and clever angled support lines. When they get it right the results can be scintillating.
Questions, questions. Can Ireland really hope to suffocate the irresistible Antoine Dupont from start to finish? And when France do come route one, as they will definitely look to do, will the hosts be able to divert them down a cul‑de-sac? Ireland’s defence has been a consistent strength but France will have studied Henry Slade’s grubber kick through for Cadan Murley’s early try for England last month and sniffed possible opportunity.
When it comes to pressure, though, no one will be more scrutinised than young Sam Prendergast, for whom this looms as the ultimate test of nerve and character. Prendergast has all the makings of a 100-cap international player – both his parents have had distinguished military careers – and his calm temperament and long raking kicking game reflect the hours he has spent with his predecessor Johnny Sexton. But this challenge, even so, will be a step up on anything the 22-year-old has previously experienced.
Defensively, he can expect a stampeding herd of French beasts down his channel, even with Bundee Aki in the vicinity to help out. The loss of Mack Hansen robs Ireland of another roaming threat and conspicuously absent again is the great Tadhg Furlong, such a vital pillar for Ireland for so long. Nor is Garry Ringrose available in the wake of his red card against Wales. He would have missed the Italy game as well had the Irish Rugby Football Union not stretched everyone’s credulity by suggesting he would have togged out for Leinster on the fallow weekend.
Add it all together and what do the green tea leaves suggest? Ireland are reliably cussed and will be further fuelled by the emotional desire to give Peter O’Mahony, Cian Healy and Conor Murray a fitting send-off in the trio’s final home Test. Try telling O’Mahony he does not have one last vital choke tackle or unflinching breakdown hurrah left in him.
Caelan Doris is also back fit to resume as captain and, in company with Finlay Bealham and Jack Conan, will be winning his 50th Test cap. Bealham and Andrew Porter will be expected to hold the fort in the set pieces but a groaning French bench looks more ominous than anything the Irish have so far faced.
Factor in Thomas Ramos, currently the world’s deadliest goal-kicker, and France will be hoping this is finally the day they can end a deflating run of big game disappointments. Both these teams bowed out in the quarter-finals of the last World Cup but France’s hangover seemed to last slightly longer. Now, having seen victory slip away in greasy conditions at Twickenham, they have a clear shot at redemption, always assuming they can keep 15 players on the pitch.
The final margin is again likely to be within a score but no side in Test rugby is better able to conjure a gamechanging “Voilà!” from thin air. Hopefully this will also prove a contest that leaves everyone desperately wanting more. There are those who insist Test rugby is simply about the result – and yes, it is for players and coaches. But professional sport is also about bums on seats and expectant sitting rooms and “Did you see that?” Monday office postmortems. Two years ago this fixture, won 32-19 by Ireland, produced a breathtaking spectacle, from James Lowe’s acrobatic try in the corner to Dupont’s try-saving tackle on Hansen. This one has all the ingredients to be even better.
