From an organizational perspective, second-year guard Jalen Green and rookie forward Jabari Smith Jr. are the closest thing to blue-chip prospects for the 2022-23 Houston Rockets.
After all, there’s a good reason Green was drafted at No. 2 overall in the 2021 first round and Smith at No. 3 in the 2022 class.
But with nine of 82 regular-season games (nearly 11% of the schedule) complete for the Rockets, it’s second-year center Alperen Sengun — taken at No. 16 overall in 2021 — who has taken a clear lead when it comes to production among Houston’s top prospects.
Here’s a look at some of the traditional numbers, by game:
- Sengun: 16.7 points (56.8% FG), 10.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 blocks, 1.7 turnovers, 3.4 fouls in 27.1 minutes
- Green: 19.3 points (37.7% FG, 34.8% on 3-pointers), 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.0 turnovers in 33.3 minutes
- Smith: 10.8 points (30.5% FG, 30.4% on 3-pointers), 6.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 3.6 fouls in 30.7 minutes
“They trust me more right now,” Sengun told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle before collecting 26 points and 13 rebounds versus the Clippers on Wednesday night. “I’m touching the ball more now. I’m starting. I feel good. I trust them all the time. It feels great.”
Most impressively, Sengun has performed consistently even as his role and rotation patterns have fluctuated — as a sixth man and as a starter at center.
Here’s how that trio fares in NBA.com’s on/off court numbers:
- Sengun: 7.8 offensive rating differential, 8.7 defensive rating differential, minus-0.9 net rating differential
- Green: minus-6.7 offensive rating differential, 11.3 defensive rating differential, minus-18.0 net rating differential
- Smith: minus-4.0 offensive rating differential, 9.0 defensive rating differential, minus-13.0 net rating differential
Finally, here’s how each player ranks in some key advanced metrics such as player efficiency rating (PER), true shooting (TS) percentage, and win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48).
- Sengun: 24.5 PER, 64.5% TS, .208 WS/48
- Green: 11.5 PER, 48.0% TS, minus-0.004 WS/48
- Smith: 6.5 PER, 43.0% TS, minus-0.015 WS/48
Other members of Houston’s first-round draft classes in 2021 and 2022, such as rookies Tari Eason and TyTy Washington and second-year players Usman Garuba and Josh Christopher, aren’t playing consistently enough to have a relevant sample size. That said, it is fair to conclude that none has impressed head coach Stephen Silas enough in practice to be worthy of a significant role at this juncture.
There are important caveats to the data, of course. For starters, while Sengun is clearly making the Rockets a better team when on the floor than off (as shown in the on/off data), they are 1-8 and on a five-game losing streak. It remains to be seen how much he can contribute in a winning environment.
Second, while 11% of the 2022-23 sample certainly isn’t insignificant, 89% still remains to be played. In other words, there will be many opportunities for these numbers to potentially shift.
Finally, Smith is a rookie, so he’s a year behind Green and Sengun in development. While some rookies can contribute meaningfully in statistics — just look at Orlando’s Paolo Banchero — others take more time to develop. Consider the case of Green a year ago, who was inefficient in the first half of the season before turning it on late to earn a spot on the NBA’s 2021-22 All-Rookie First Team.
Ultimately, none of these numbers are conclusive at this early stage. But with over 10% of this season’s sample complete, Sengun is easily the clubhouse leader for the rebuilding Rockets when it comes to production among their prized first- and second-year prospects.
