The one nice thing about the prevalence of gambling sites and gambling-related information is that we can clearly define “expectations” for each NFL team. While a fan base can have completely inflated and unrealistic expectations (cough, Cardinals fans last year even though we tried to warn you, cough), people who make a living working for sportsbooks have to refine the process in order to protect their bottom line. They have to get as close to an exact expectation as humanly possible so that they can get your money.
So, we will take those “expectations” and apply our own judgments. While most of the time the house wins, here are a few opportunities where teams will rise above their “expectations” as defined. (For reference, I am using FanDuel’s 2023 win totals.)
Rams over 6.5 wins
I cannot trumpet this opinion more. This is my offseason soap box position which, to be fair to readers, supplants my 2022 offseason love of the Baltimore Ravens. Last year, I was certain the Ravens were going to make the Super Bowl, or at least spend the season showcasing their organizational brilliance. Instead, Lamar Jackson got injured amid a lingering contract situation. But the Ravens still won 10 games, and I would imagine that, with a healthy and financially secure Jackson, we would have seen a deeper run. (The 13-win season I projected, however, may end up being more realistic in 2023, despite the sledgehammer of a division that is the AFC North.) Anyway, back to the Rams. I was guilty of overlooking and misinterpreting some of their offseason maneuvers as a kind of surrender to the 2023 season, when it may in fact be the opposite. The Rams eventually needed to pivot away from a top-heavy roster structure, and they instead layered their depth chart with 14 new draft picks. They also turned over their coaching staff. Both of these occurrences, in a vacuum, might suggest a rebuild. But let’s think about it in another way.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
First, Sean McVay is one of the brightest minds in the NFL. No argument there. He has also been one of the best hirers of talent in the league, mostly thanks to his rigorous interviewing process and desire to find people who challenge him. Some good coaches hire their friends, and those friends get hired to be head coaches, then fail. But some good coaches, like McVay, hire other good coaches, and those coaches get hired to head coaching jobs and succeed. (Zac Taylor has been to a Super Bowl with the Bengals. Kevin O’Connell made the playoffs in his first season with the Vikings. Brandon Staley made the playoffs last season with the Chargers.) And the Rams’ staff is talented this year: They have Mike LaFleur, who was scapegoated in New York for an offense that couldn’t buoy Zach Wilson, tight ends coach Nick Caley (from the Patriots), pass game specialist Jake Peetz (LSU, Panthers, Alabama) and running backs coach Ron Gould (Stanford, Cal). Getting a fresh set of eyes on what McVay was doing well, and what had gone stale, will almost certainly result in a more effective version of a scheme that teams are still trying to effectively copy. While this may not be a vintage Matthew Stafford season, he is still a top 10 quarterback who can effectively distribute the ball, and one will have an edge schematically over a good portion of the defenses he’ll face. Betting on Los Angeles is a safer assumption than, say, assuming that Geno Smith will have another unbelievable year and the Seahawks will continue on a tidy ascent.
Patriots over 7.5 wins
My “Patriots Will Win the Division” take has already caused enough problems for me to back away from. So it goes; I don’t want to back down from it, anyway. As I’ve said in several different ways, I think the possibility of the Patriots getting back to some semblance of successful autopilot offensively now that Bill O’Brien is calling plays again is just as believable as Aaron Rodgers turning the Jets into a juggernaut, the Bills remaining effective enough to win the division or the Dolphins remaining injury-free. Whether or not we all care to admit it, those are all major question marks, too. New England’s so-called “slump” included a lost COVID year with a massive chunk of opt-outs and Cam Newton as their quarterback; a season with Mac Jones in which he was the best rookie quarterback in the NFL and notched a playoff berth; and a bad run that featured a confusing hierarchy of first-time playcallers in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. The Patriots are still the Patriots. They just took a little detour into the kind of favoritism and cronyism that inevitably clips teams’ successes over a long period of time. We are out of those weeds. Or, it’s just as likely we are out of those weeds as Rodgers is to become the consummate teaching teammate.
When I make calls around the NFL, Bill Belichick’s name still looms. He is still very active, and he is still digesting what is current and what is next. The same can be said for O’Brien, who put a unique spin on the Alabama playbook during his successful stint at Tuscaloosa Coaching Rehab. The New England defense last year was excellent, and it added one of the best immediate-to-play pieces in this year’s draft with the selection of Christian Gonzalez. The Patriots took an outside linebacker, Keion White, and a hybrid linebacker, Marte Mapu, in the third round. Investing in a unit that was already one of the three best in the NFL, to me, should be a warning shot to a lot of the offense-dependent AFC East.
Steelers over 8.5 wins
Jessica Rapfogel/USA TODAY Sports
This one, like the New England slight at the hands of bookmakers, is a case of not realizing how good the entrenched best coaches in the NFL really are. Mike Tomlin won nine games last year with a battered roster. The Steelers have two (in my opinion) top 10 caliber running backs. They improved their offensive line. It would be difficult to not see them get better quarterback play, and I am betting on a fairly significant leap from Pickett, based on what I’ve heard so far about his offseason.
Like the Patriots bet, let’s look at why you might be taking the under. To me, the only difference between the AFC North this year and last year is that bettors seem to think the Browns will be markedly better with Deshaun Watson having a full offseason (outside of the two full offseasons he had prior to resuming his playing career). Thus, all other teams will sacrifice a win or two. That may be the case, but as I outlined here, Watson may also simply have some flaws that are less conducive to success in the NFL as we see it right now. Last year, Jacoby Brissett was a more effective player. This year, the Browns enter with a stellar running back room, a highly-rated (but underperforming) offensive line, and a very good pass rush. They also enter with a ton of institutional pressure, which could obviously produce a solid season, but could also produce the kind of scattershot dart throwing that is synonymous with clubs who are trying to live up to expectations. Also, Watson will have to be much more involved with the running game this year if the Browns are to be good enough to depress potential win totals for the Ravens and the Steelers.
Similarly, we would also have to assume that, for the Steelers to win fewer than 8.5 games, the Ravens would need to take the step forward we talked about in our Rams blurb. While I have faith in a re-worked offense with Todd Monken, Jackson is a quarterback prone to injury, Odell Beckham Jr. has routinely struggled to complete seasons, and we know next to nothing about their first-round pick, Zay Flowers, as a potential game-wrecker at the NFL level yet. All of these question marks could become best-case scenarios. Or, the Ravens could do what they did last year, and regress a bit into the royal rumble that was the AFC North.
