From one NBA season to the next, we form opinions. Based on what we know, and what’s transpired with rosters across the league, which teams are primed to contend for the title? Which players are likely to make a run for the MVP award? More often than not, there’s a relatively short list of teams and players to choose from when looking ahead.
With that in mind, though, it can be a little bit tougher to gauge which young players are in the process of taking a leap to the next level. Growth isn’t always linear with youngsters, if growth ever happens at all.
So here’s a look at three players who appear primed for a breakout, with explanations as to why each player seems likely to produce more efficiently than he did last season.
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Jalen Green, Rockets
From the outside looking in, off a traditional statistical glance alone, you might believe Green isn’t in need of a leap. He already went from 17.3 points per night in his first year to 22.1 in his second season. And he’s still just 21 years old.
But take a closer look, and you’ll notice his efficiency dipped slightly—both overall and from deep—from a rookie season in which he was already one of the least efficient volume shooters in the sport. So the next step for Green as a scorer, particularly with hard-nosed coach Ime Udoka working with him, is to improve the quality of his looks; even if it means taking fewer of them in a step toward winning basketball.
While it’s fair to wonder how the signings of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks will ultimately pan out for Houston—some would argue it isn’t wise to bring in two of last season’s least efficient players to play alongside other wing players who struggle in the same regard—it’s worth considering how Green may benefit. VanVleet, the one-time NBA champion and three-year, $130 million man, being a floor general should create better looks for Green, who saw his field goal percentage around the basket fall precipitously last season. (As a rookie, he was at 68% in the restricted area, according to Basketball Reference. That number fell to just over 59% last season.)
Mark Williams, Hornets
The 7'1" center got a far bigger role, and became a starter with the Hornets after the club traded Mason Plumlee to the Clippers at the trade deadline. Williams, in turn, made hay with the opportunity by averaging nearly 12 points and 10 rebounds for the remainder of the season in just under 27 minutes per game. Not bad for someone who saw action in only 41 outings as a rookie.
The 21-year-old’s productivity could climb in Year 2 as a function of playing alongside better talent. Not long after he was inserted into the lineup, star guard LaMelo Ball fractured his ankle and missed the remainder of the season. And Miles Bridges, who pleaded no contest to a felony domestic violence charge and sat out all of last season, will be eligible to return in November, giving the Hornets another 20-points-per-game scorer to help lead the offense.
None of this even speaks to Williams’s defensive ability, which saw him average a little more than one block per contest while holding offensive players nearly three percentage points beneath their season-long averages near the rim.
Obi Toppin, Pacers
After three seasons of sporadic yet efficient play in New York behind Julius Randle, Toppin, a 25-year-old high-flying forward, gets a chance to spread his wings elsewhere.
He will get that opportunity with the fun, up-tempo Pacers, a squad with an ace for a point guard and one who finished with the second-most wide-open three-point attempts in the league, at 1,753. Toppin hasn’t been the greatest long-range shooter throughout his career—he has canned just 32.5% of his tries during that span in a league where the average is now 36%—but he is solid when left alone. Last season he connected on almost 38% of his 167 attempts when wide open, something Indiana will undoubtedly look to take advantage of when he fans out to the corner during transition opportunities alongside Tyrese Haliburton and Bruce Brown. And he is a safe bet to put up bigger counting stats, given that he played just under 15 minutes per game during his time with the Knicks, but he should see an expanded role with the Pacers.
