Andy Newton is back this week with his December Gold Trends as he looks at the big race at Cheltenham on Saturday and highlights some key stats that last year’s winner Fugitif will need to overcome.
Saturday’s December Gold Cup Sees Some Familiar Names Entered
In what is a tight market with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK, this Saturday’s December Gold Cup is a race with many recognisable names.
Last year’s winner and runner up Fugitif and Il Ridoto are back for more, while we also see several horses that ran well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month.
These December Gold Cup runners include the second GA Law, plus the fourth Madara and also In Excelsis Deo – who was still in with a shout until unseating Bryan Carver four out.
Cases can be made for many, but there are also several December Gold Cup trends to apply to the runners that will hopefully put history on your side and pinpoint the best profiles based on previous winners.
December Gold Cup Trends and Stats 2024
Find the best profiles based on past horse racing winners of the 2024 December Gold Cup at Cheltenham this Saturday.
- 20/21 – Aged 8 or younger
- 19/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 17/21 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
- 16/21 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
- 15/21 – Placed in the top 3 in last race
- 15/20 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (2 winners, Frodon – Ryanair Chase and Coole Cody – Plate)
- 15/21 – Ran at Cheltenham (fences) before (6 won)
- 14/21 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/21 – Officially rated 141 or higher
- 13/21 – Favourites unplaced
- 12/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 12/21 – French bred
- 10/21 – Carried 10-12 or more
- 10/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 10/21 – Raced in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
- 7/21 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
- 5/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 5/21 – Won their last race
- 3/21 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
- 2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 1/21 – Favourites
- 9 of the last 12 winners carried 10-12 or less
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10/1
Three HUGE December Gold Cup Trends That Fugitif Has To Overcome
The Richard Hobson-trained Fugitif was gutsy winner of the December Gold Cup last year (watch below) and is back to try and become the first back-to-back winner of the race since Poquelin, who won in 2009 and 2010.
Frodon won the race twice too – I hear some say – but these weren’t in the consecutive seasons (2016 and 2018)
Back to Fugitif and the 9 year-old is also better off at the weights this year – giving away 8lbs to Il Ridoto in 2023, but only has to give away a pound here.
So, even if you factor in Freddie Gingell’s 3lb claim this time on Il Ridoto – last year’s winner is still much better off at the ratings.
However, there are still three big December Gold Cup trends that say Fugitif CAN’T win.
- AGE: First up is the age. At 9 years-old Fugitif will be looking to become the second oldest winner since Fragrant Dawn won in 1993 aged 9. Since then, only Coole Cody, who was 10, in 2021 as won aged 9+. Meaning a massive 25 of the last 26 December Gold Cup winners were aged 8 or younger.
- WEIGHT: Next is the weight as the December Gold Cup is a handicap. Yes, Fugitif kicked this stat into touch last year when winning with 11-3, but it’s still worth noting that 9 of the last 12 winners carried just 10-12 or less.
- FAVOURITES: Okay, this last stat could change as the market with the best betting sites in the UK is tight. However, should Fugitif go off as the jolly, he’ll also be looking to become only the second winning favourite in the last 21 runnings. The last winning market leader was Poquelin in 2009.
SportsCasting’s Andy Newton thinks Madara is the call in the December Gold Cup – find out why here.
Il Ridoto Bids To Become First Paddy Power Gold Cup Winner To Follow Up In The December Gold Cup Since 2006
The Paul Nicholls yard have won the December Gold Cup five times – more than any other trainer – and he’ll be trying to add to that with Stage Star and this recent Paddy Power Gold Cup hero Il Ridoto (watch below).
Il Ridoto has been raised 8lbs for that win but is still going to be popular in the market to follow up – he’ll be hoping to be the first Paddy Power Gold Cup winner to add this race since Exotic Dancer in 2006.
While before that, you have to go back to 1997 and find Senor El Betrutti, who landed both races in the same season.
2024 December Gold Cup Race Details
📅Date: Saturday 14th December 2024
⌚Time: 1:50pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m 4 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £71,188
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
You can also see the full Cheltenham December Meeting schedule, race times and which races are on ITV Racing.
ITV Racing To Show The 2024 December Gold Cup LIVE
The ITV Racing team are also at Cheltenham this Saturday to take in the 2024 December Gold Cup – along with three other Prestbury Park races.
- 1:50 Cheltenham – Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV
- 2:25 Cheltenham – Betmgm Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m½f ITV
- 3:00 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m ITV
- 3:35 Cheltenham – Betmgm mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV
December Gold Cup Past Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2023 – Fugitif (13/2)
- 2022 – No Race
- 2021 – Coole Cody (12/1)
- 2020 – Chatham Street Lad (16/1)
- 2019 – Warthog (7/1)
- 2018 – Frodon (7/1)
- 2017 – Guitar Pete (9/1)
- 2016 – Frodon (14/1)
- 2015 – Village Vic (8/1)
- 2014 – Niceonefrankie (16/1)
- 2013 – Double Ross (7/1)
WATCH: Fugitif Winning The 2023 December Gold Cup
You can also get top daily horse racing picks from industry expert Andrew Mount.
