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The threat of multiple wars involving Russia, China and Iran breaking out in three years means that British forces must double their fire power to be ready to cope, according to the head of the Army.
General Sir Roly Walker’s grim scenario of the world on fire involves China launching an invasion of Taiwan, the war in Ukraine still continuing, or Russia seeking retribution for losing, and Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal.
Speaking to journalists before giving an address at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) the new Chief of General Staff did not give detailed timeline on how this witch’s brew will be concocted.
But his doomsday scenario appears to have been based on three premises.
They are China’s President Xi Jinping reportedly wanting to forcefully “reunify” Taiwan by 2027, Vladimir Putin continuing his Ukraine invasion for another two years, and even if its ends, the Kremlin seeking retribution on the West, and Iran carrying on its uranium enrichment programme.
In his first public speech as head of the Army, Gen Walker said Britain faced danger from an “axis of upheaval” in which a conflict involving one of the three countries would lead to “a significant detonation” elsewhere.
He stressed that the UK and its allies had to be ready “to deter or fight a war in three years”.
Gen Walker acknowledged that war was not inevitable, but held that the Army had “just enough time” to prepare for any conflict. This meant doubling the Army’s fighting power by 2027 and tripling it by the end of the decade.
The CGS did not demand that the size of the Army, which with around 70,000 troops is the lowest for 300 years, is increased. With modern weaponry and use of AI the aim would, he said be to reach a stage when it destroys an adversary three times its size.
He said: “We have just enough time … to prepare, act, and assure the re-establishment of credible land forces to support a strategy of deterrence.”
He added that “the need is urgent” if the Army was to “apply all strengths as a free-market democracy against the weaknesses of their rigid, autocratic, command economies”.
Gen Walker continued “it will take more time than I think we have for new fighting systems to be fielded at scale in our fighting formations” and if the army is called to battle before then “it will have to use old equipment, as well as limited stockpiles as logistic support systems.”
