Whether Romelu Lukaku remains a Chelsea player beyond this summer or not, the issue over Chelsea's attacking headache will remain. Sure, you will read thought pieces and deep dives over how the club's record-breaking transfer went so drastically awry within the space of nine months.
The Belgian will likely be held up as a symbol of what to avoid in years to come and may be viewed symbolically, as the last remnants of the excessive spending of the Roman Abramovich era.
As reported by The Guardian, there are talks planned with the striker's lawyer in the coming days now the Blues can get involved in transfer dealings after the sanctions on Abramovich that impacted Chelsea were lifted. Lukaku is waiting to hear Chelsea's view on his future and quite clearly, a deal appears highly complicated given the sums involved.
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The benefits of offloading Lukaku are clear. It would hopefully free up some wages for potential arrivals, it could open the door for a new attacking addition that proves a better fit for Thomas Tuchel's counter-pressing system, and the at times hostile atmosphere around Lukaku at Stamford Bridge in recent months would be extinguished.
However, for those who have maligned Lukaku since his controversial Sky Italia interview assuming he is the root cause of Chelsea's attacking shortcomings, you are likely to be disappointed. Or you should consider what will be left behind should Lukaku depart.
Due to the investment made in Lukaku, his own profile, the scrutiny and attention on his performances and output, his presence was always going to overshadow a lot of the conversation last season. Sadly it was of a negative tone but as the months wore on and Lukaku's own displays worsened, he bore the brunt of a majority of criticism.
That aided the reputation of others, who appeared to gain favour from onlookers for "not being Lukaku" when in reality, their own numbers and performances when dissected with any seriousness caused equal concern. Kai Havertz might have become a preferred option for Tuchel in February, but it is hard to herald the 22-year-old as a standout attacker on his own, matching the same number of league goals as Lukaku with three more appearances.
Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech and Christian Pulisic all have faced criticism too for their shortcomings. Mason Mount was the only player in Chelsea's squad across 2021/22 to hit double figures for goals and assists in the Premier League too. Without Lukaku to pin frustration onto, their own performances will face even greater scrutiny, should a majority remain past this transfer window.
But the player's own shortcomings only provide half the story here. Lukaku's awkwardness to adapt also offered further evidence of the flaws with Tuchel's system. History shows that Lukaku has regularly scored goals wherever he's been, in the Premier League, Serie A and for his national team. Solving that at Chelsea should not be framed as some unsolvable, logic-bending task.
Chelsea fans will bemoan missed opportunities a lot, probably informed by Tuchel who has done similar in a lot of post-match press conferences. But the data conflicts with that perception greatly.
Looking at the final Premier League table via Understat which focuses on Expected metrics like xG, xA and xGA (expected goals, expected assists and expected goals against) only Leicester, who finished eighth, and Aston Villa, 14th, outperformed their xG more than Chelsea across the 21/22 season.
Overall Chelsea amassed the third-highest xG in the league but that number does not reflect the quality of individual chances, whilst the overperformance in xG indicates that Chelsea are still scoring more chances than they are expected to finish. This proves a theory held by supporters that Tuchel's controlled possession-based system does not create enough good opportunities.
The missed chances theory is best applied in games against better opposition when the Blues are offered space to transition - both cup finals against Liverpool demonstrate this. Though over the course of a season, this type of space is rarely afforded, most of the time Chelsea are tasked with breaking down low blocks, something they still greatly struggle with.
Some of this is blamed on the centre of midfield which equally lacks creativity and goals. Some of it is also attributed to the formation, which takes out an attacking player for another defender in a 3-4-3 and can be accused of steering clear of risk, something the top-two Chelsea are dreaming of catching do pretty regularly.
Both Man City and Liverpool were losing on the final day and both came back to win at home against inferior opposition trying to nullify them. You throw this current Chelsea team into the same scenario at Stamford Bridge and it is hard to feel great confidence that Tuchel's players would come back to win.
There is a bit of a crossroads in attack for Tuchel's rebuild. After £300million spent on an underperforming attack and the embarrassment of Lukaku not working, there should be trepidation in spending vast amounts again without greater consideration over the style of the target, and their potential to adapt to the Premier League and the demands of Tuchel.
